1. In Northern Mists: Bering Climate-Present and Future James Overland, Phyllis Stabeno, Muyin Wang and Nick Bond NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

2. Historical Global Temperatures J. Hansen

3. 20C3M 11 models have decadal signal PIcntrl 10 models have decadal signal Wang et al., J. Climate, in press 20 th Century Arctic Winter Temperature Anomalies from International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Models Black line is Observations

4. Change in Bering Sea in 2006 Arctic still warm overall Surface Air Temperature Anomalies February Ice Anomalies 2000-2005 2006

5. Bering Sea Winter (NDJFM) Ocean Temperature change compared to 1980-1999 Under IPCC middle CO2 Scenario

6. Bering Winter (NDJFM) Ocean Temperature Anomaly (Relative to 1980-99 mean) IPCC A1B emissions scenario

7. Bering Sea Ice Anomaly (March) relative to 1979-99 Period Mean Ratio (%) of Ice Area Decrease by 2050 50% 2050 2000

8. Difference in Sea Level Pressure 2050-2100 Minus 1950-2000 Salathe, GRL, 2006

9. Summary Continued warming and loss of sea ice for Bering Sea Must consider large natural variability in near term climate projections Warming trend due to greenhouse gases as large as natural variability by 2030 Climate trajectory is important to ecosystem reorganization-Pollock ride out a cold swing? Most likely, rate of warming will slow for Alaska and Bering Sea, as we were in local temperature maximum

10. State of the Arctic Report ●A review of 2000-2005 was conducted by an international group of 20 scientists who developed a consensus on information content and reliability. ●This Report was conceived as an update to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. www.arctic.noaa.gov/soa2006/