1. New Hampshire’s Changing Wintertime Climate: Impact on Forestry Practices Jennifer Wurtzel (U. Michigan) Dr. Cameron Wake, Advisor (U. New Hampshire) Research & Discover 2007 Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space University of New Hampshire

2. Hansen et al. (1988) http://www.giss.nasa.gov Global Temperature 1880-2005 (meteorological stations)

3. 2.3 o F warming over 103 years 4.3 o F warming over 33 years Time-series represents an aerially weighted average of data from 136 stations. Data from the NOAA-NCDC and Environment Canada Winter Temperature in Northeast US & Canadian Maritimes: 1900-2002

4. Data From: Winter Recreation and Climate Variability in New Hampshire: 1984 - 2006 Report available online at: http://www.carboncoalition.org/ DifferenceDifferencePercent Winter Indicator in numberin revenueChange Alpine Skier Days309,495$11.5 million 14% Nordic Skier Days 43,129 $0.7 million 30% Snowmobile Licenses 10,892 $1.0 million 26% Difference Between 5 Cold, Snowy Winters and 5 Warm, Slushy Winters *Slide from Wake & Burakowski Presentation (94, 96, 01, 03, 05)(95, 97, 00, 02, 06)

5. Some Recent Headlines

6. Logging in New Hampshire Where? Why? Mud Season Road Postings

7. Question: How many days each year can logging trucks use the roads between Dec 1 and Mar 31?

8. Methods Obtain Data & Guidelines Formula Modify Formula (Freeze-Thaw Formula) Apply Freeze-Thaw Formula to locations Analyze Data Sensitivity Analysis

9. Obtaining Data and Modifying Guidelines Formula Town Records Guidelines –When to post roads in spring –When to lift road bans in spring Modifications (Freeze-Thaw) –When are roads frozen –When are roads thawing

10. Freeze-Thaw Formula Some terminology Freezing Degree Days (FDD) = 32°F – Daily Mean Temp –When temp ≤ 32°F Melting Degree Days (MDD) = Daily Mean Temp – 29°F –When temp ≥ 29°F Cumulative Freezing Degree Days (CFDD) = ΣFDD Cumulative Melting Degree Days (CMDD) = ΣMDD Road considered frozen when CFDD > 10 Road considered thawed when CMDD > 10

11. 15 days lost since 1970 ~4 days per decade

12. 18 days lost since 1970 ~5 days per decade

13. Results

16. Sensitivity Analysis

17. Conclusions Clear negative trend indicating a loss of over two days per decade Potential need for change in forestry practices Loss of revenue from lumber industry –Presently, $116,000 per lost day Further evidence of changing climate in New England

18. Remote Sensing –Can be combined with information from logging industry and mills for more accurate view of forestry activity ledaps.nascom.nasa.gov LEDAPS –Remote sensing (Landsat) can be used to analyze rates of forest-cover conversion, disturbance and recovery ledaps.nascom.nasa.gov

19. Acknowledgements Research & Discover, EOS, UNH Technology Transfer Center, Public Works Departments of New Hampshire Dr. Cameron Wake Dr. George Hurtt EriC Kelsey Michael Routhier Deborah Smolen Special thanks to: