1. Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2015 April 14, 2015

2. Class Information and News Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15 –Record of course Rood’s Class MediaWiki SiteClass MediaWiki Site –http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Actionhttp://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action Rood’s Openclimate Tumblr SiteOpenclimate Tumblr Site

3. Schedule Presentations –Monday, April 20, 2015 Auditorium, Room 2048, Space Research Building, North Campus (You need to find it, your self!) 6:30 – 9:30 PM Dinner provided –Tuesday, April 21, 2015 Classroom, 1024 Dana 10:00 – 11:30 AM Final documents due (electronic, narrative and presentation) –Tuesday, April 28, 2015 @ 3:30 P.M.

4. Resources and Recommended Reading Socolow and Pacala, “Stabilization Wedges,” Scientific American, 2006 (link)link Other versions, additional reading –Pacala and Socolow, “Stabilization Wedges,” Science, 2004 (link)link –Socolow, “Wedges Reaffirmed,” Climate Central, 2011 (link)link –Blog at climateprogress (link)link

5. Wedges on the Web Carbon Mitigation Initiative @ Princeton UniversityCarbon Mitigation Initiative

6. Summary Points: Science Theory / Empirical Evidence CO 2 and Water Vapor Hold Heat Near Surface Correlated Observations CO 2 and Temperature Observed to be strongly related on long time scales (> 100 years) CO 2 and Temperature not Observed to be strongly related on short time scales (< 10 years) Observations CO 2 is Increasing due to Burning Fossil Fuels Theory / Conservation Principle Mass and Energy Budgets  Concept of “Forcing” Prediction Earth Will Warm Validation Consequences Land Use / Land Change Other Greenhouse Gases Aerosols Internal Variability Feedbacks Air Quality “Abrupt” Climate Change Attribution

7. Outline: Class 25, Winter 2015 Remembering structured problem solving –Mitigation and Adaptation –Anticipatory and Reactive –Individual and Everyone Mitigation Wedges What Can I Do?

8. Responses to the Climate Change Problem Autonomous/ Individual Policy/ Societal Reactive Anticipatory Adaptation Mitigation

9. What is short-term and long-term? 25 years 50 years75 years100 years0 years ENERGY SECURITY ECONOMY CLIMATE CHANGE Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime,... LONG SHORT There are short-term issues important to climate change. Election time scales

10. Managing Climate Complexity TEMPORAL NEAR-TERMLONG-TERM SPATIAL LOCAL GLOBAL WEALTH

11. Managing Climate Complexity TEMPORAL NEAR-TERMLONG-TERM SPATIAL LOCAL GLOBAL WEALTH Being Global, Long Term, Wealth connected, degree of difficulty is high

12. Structure of Problem Solving (http://glisaclimate.org/home )http://glisaclimate.org/home

13. Knowledge System / Problem Solving Recorded lectures and slides (link)link

14. Mitigation Mitigation Wedges “Practical” Response Space

15. From Lecture on International Policy Committed to avoiding “dangerous” climate change. –What is dangerous? Definitions such as –Avoid 2°C global average warming –Keep carbon dioxide ( + other greenhouse gases) to less than 450 ppm equivalent

16. Reality check? Will we be able to keep the atmosphere to less than 450 ppm CO 2 equivalent? Will we able to keep to less than 2°C global average increase? Will we avoid dangerous climate change? What is dangerous climate change? Have we underestimated of overestimated warming so far?

17. Consider Economics: Stern Report: Influential: Useful for thinking about problem Draws on recent science which points to ‘significant risks of temperature increases above 5°C under business-as-usual by the early part of the next century’ — other studies typically have focused on increases of 2–3°C. Treats aversion to risk explicitly. Adopts low pure time discount rates to give future generations equal weight. Takes account of the disproportionate impacts on poor regions.

18. Resources and Recommended Reading Stern Report: Primary Web Page Stern Report: Executive Summary Nordhaus: Criticism of Stern Report Tol and Yohe: Deconstruction of Stern ReportTol and Yohe: Deconstruction of Stern Report

19. Some carry away messages Determine what is a tolerable ceiling for carbon dioxide. -Gives cap for a cap and trade system. -Tolerable ceilings have been posed as between 450 and 550 ppm. -Ice sheet melting and sea level? -Oceanic circulation / The Gulf Stream? -Ocean acidification? -Determine a tolerable measure of increased temperature -Copenhagen Accord (2009)  2 o C

20. Dangerous climate change? Stern, 2006

21. World 4 Degrees Warmer Stern, 2006

22. World at 450 ppm CO 2 ? We get to emit a trillion tons of carbon to stay below 450 ppm CO 2

23. Trillion Tons: Carbon VisualsCarbon Visuals

24. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Data and more information “ This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through … a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels. ” --Lyndon Johnson Special Message to Congress, 1965

25. Past Emissions Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

26. The Stabilization Triangle Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

27. The Wedge Concept Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

29. Stabilization (2006) Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

30. CO 2 stabilization trajectory (2006) Stabilize at < 550 ppm. Pre-industrial: 275 ppm, current: ~400 ppm. Need 7 ‘wedges’ of prevented CO 2 emissions.

31. Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative (2011)

32. Where Do We Sit? Concept that we can take these actions to limit emissions. Growing population. Economic and development imperatives. Need for more energy. Technological development. Societal inertia.

33. My Analysis Difficult to avoid a world four degrees warmer. We have, in fact, underestimated the impact of warming. We have some control over how fast and how far the warming will go. We are committed to irreversible changes, for example, sea-level rise. We can “cope” with this. We must.

34. What Can I Do? Need to be thinking about how to adapt. –How to make our home as robust as possible. –Need to plan –Need to design Also need to be taking steps to mitigate our emissions –Further we stray from our past climate, the more difficult it is to predict –Possibility of abrupt changes becomes more likely

35. Some Sites With Information EPA: What You Can DoWhat You Can Do Union of Concerned Scientists: What You Can Do About Climate ChangeWhat You Can Do About Climate Change United Nations: Kicking the HabitKicking the Habit U.N. Foundation: Realizing Energy EfficiencyRealizing Energy Efficiency Energy Star: About Energy StarAbout Energy Star Energy Star: Standby Energy Standby Energy

36. McKinsey 2007: Large

37. McKinsey 2007

38. Rood Blogs Barriers –Identifying BarriersIdentifying Barriers –Personal and Public Barriers (Includes references to environmental behavior paper: Hines et al., 1987) Personal and Public Barriers What Can I Do? –Setting Up the DiscussionSetting Up the Discussion –Organizing and Growing Individual EffortsOrganizing and Growing Individual Efforts –Complete ListComplete List –We Are What We EatWe Are What We Eat –How Much Does It Cost? (More on diet.)How Much Does It Cost?

39. Rood’s List for Influence –Buying to support sustainability Support companies Buy to values and standards –Support policies that promote energy conservation and efficiency –Invest in companies in renewable energy Social responsibility CERES

40. Rood’s List for Influence –Emergence of societal groups Community associations Civic organizations Interest groups –Local government and school boards Committees Volunteering Appointments Elected –Education –Advocacy –Resources controlled and influences Your business Your farm

41. Schedule Presentations –Monday, April 20, 2015 Auditorium, Room 2048, Space Research Building, North Campus (You need to find it, your self!) 6:30 – 9:30 PM Dinner provided –Tuesday, April 21, 2015 Classroom, 1024 Dana 10:00 – 11:30 AM Final documents due (electronic, narrative and presentation) –Tuesday, April 28, 2015 @ 3:30 P.M.

42. Summary: Class 25, Winter 2015 Mitigation: Limiting the warming is possible. –Behavior and practice –Technology and economics –Personal-scale action matter Adaptation is required –Design:  Importance of sustainable engineering –Planning –Management

43. Outline: Class 25, Winter 2015 Remembering structured problem solving –Mitigation and Adaptation –Anticipatory and Reactive –Individual and Everyone Mitigation Wedges What Can I Do?

44. Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate SUN: ENERGY, HEATEARTH: ABSORBS ENERGY EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE

45. Sun-Earth System in Balance The addition to the blanket is CO 2 SUNEARTH EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE PLACE AN INSULATING BLANKET AROUND EARTH FOCUS ON WHAT IS HAPPENING AT THE SURFACE

46. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Data and more information Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas

47. Temperature and CO 2 : The last 1000 years Surface temperature and CO 2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior.  Medieval warm period  “Little ice age”  Temperature starts to follow CO 2 as CO 2 increases beyond approximately 300 ppm, the value seen in the previous graph as the upper range of variability in the past 350,000 years.

48. CLOUD-WORLD The Earth System ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN

49. Radiation Balance Figure

50. Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al. 2009)Trenberth et al. 2009

51. Hansen et al: (1998) & (2001) (-2.7, -0.6) (-3.7, 0.0) 1998 2001 Climate Forcing