1. Finland and FMI in Central Asia Head of Unit Harri Pietarila harri.pietarila@fmi.fi 05/06/2016

2. 2 Wider European Initiative Framework Programme for Finland’s Development Policy based on Finland’s Government Programme which emphasizes crisis prevention, support for peace processes and environmental cooperation. three regional cooperation programmes in Eastern Europe (Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus) the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia) Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) Implementation Plan for 2009 – 2013, budget 2009 EUR 8,5 million to be doupled by 2013 New programme 2014 – under preparation

3. 3 Wider European Initiative - priorities strengthening stability and security through a regional and thematic approach Themes 1.security, 2.trade and development, 3.information society development, 4.energy and the environment 5.social sustainability

4. 4 Wider Europe Initiative implementation plan 4. Energy and the environment Developing the comprehensive use and management of water resources Central Asia, 2009-2013, EUR 5 million Finnish Environmental Institute (SYKE) Enhancing the capacity of the geological sector Central Asia, 2009-2013, EUR 3,1 million Geological Survey of Finland (GTK) Developing the observation and weather service operations of meteorological service agencies (ICI-project) Central Asia, 2011-2013, EUR 0,5 million Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)

5. Uzhydromet & FMI ICI project Promoting Modernisation of Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Central Asia (FINUZ) 5 Total budget 530 keur 2011 – 2013 Improve regional cooperation and support to build development strategy for CA NHMSs Modernisation and development strategy for Uzhydromet Improve capacity of WMO Regional training Center in Tashkent Improve service delivery capacity of CA NHMSs (pilot training courses) Institutional Capacity building and technical training Cooperation with WB CAHMP project and other related activities in the region

6. Status of CAC NHMSs No capacity to provide services to the DRR management and different socio-economic sectors at adequate level The observation networks have severely declined during the last two decades, and the NHMSs have not been capable to modernize the production systems and processes It is critical to enhance the technical and human NHMS resources to ensure better operational monitoring, forecasting and warning Before investing in technology it is critical to invest in training of the managers and the staff and in improvement of the communication and data management systems Regional cooperation and data sharing would significantly promote the quality and quantity of hydrometeorolgical services, and decrease the impacts of natural hazards in each country 05/06/2016Finnish Meteorological Institute6

7. Deterioration of hydrometeorological observation networks (WB, 2011) 05/06/2016Finnish Meteorological Institute7 Component of observation network KyrgyzstanTajikistanTurkmenistanKazakhstanUzbekistan f Number, 2008 % Reduction since 1985 Number, 2008 % Reduction since 1985 Number, 2008 % Reduction since 1985 Number, 2008 % Reduction since 1985 Number, 2008 % Reduction since 1985 Meteorological stations 326257224852259657810-20 Hydrological stations and posts 7648814132452914712910-20 Upper air0a0a 1000b0b 0c0c 9550100 Meteorological Radars 0d0d 1001750e0e 1000 3- Agromet observation stations 3155374648151855589- a There were 3 operational upper air stations in Kyrgyz Republic b There were 4 operational upper air stations in Republic of Tajikistan c There were 6 operational upper air stations in Turkmenistan d One radar was in pilot operation in Kyrgyz Republic e One radar was in operation in Turkmenistan f Data on reduction of hydrological and meteorological stations in Uzbekistan is based on team's assessment

8. 8 Weather and Climate projects in Central Asia WB – Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Program (CAHMP) UNDP - Central Asian Multi-Country Programme on Climate Risk Management (CA-CRM) ADB – Water and Adaptation Interventions in Central and West Asia ADB/Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) – Climate Change capacity building project in Tajikistan, etc.… National development projects in Kazakstan, Turkmenistan, etc.... And many others projects and donors active..…. Cooperation in the region and coordination between the donors is needed for sustainable development

9. ADB / TA 7532 Water and Adaptation Interventions in Central and West Asia Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan Climate scenarios

10. Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins.

11. Two-way modeling approach

12. Results of the downscaled temperature (Celsius)

13. Results of the downscaled precipitation Annual mean precipitation 2001-2010

14. Changes in annual demand and unmet demand in water resources for the Amu Darya basin

15. SUMMARY The annual mean temperatures are going to rise in the Central Asian region by about three degrees during the coming 40 years. The warming is projected to be strongest in the mountains and in the northern parts of Central Asia. On annual basis the precipitation changes are projected to be small during the coming 40 years. There is variation from model to model, however, most climate models suggest that the already dry south-western parts of Central Asia will become even drier especially during summer, and that in some places in the mountains the precipitation rates might increase. The glaciers in the Tien Shan and Pamir are retreating and the rates of retreat vary between regions and time periods. The largest retreat rates have been observed in the northern Tien Shan where glaciated area has declined by 30-40% during the second half of the 20th century The snowline will raise 200 - 300 meters in average until 2050. Hill slopes which always have been covered by snow will be exposed to erosion Total annual runoff into the downstream areas is expected to decrease more than 20% for the Syr Darya and about 20-35% for the Amu Darya by 2050. Strongest decreases in stream flow are expected for the late summer months (August, September, October), Most cost-effective adaptation measures are (i) improving agricultural practice, (ii) deficit irrigation, (iii) increasing the reuse of water in agriculture, and (iv) the reduction of irrigated areas.

16. 40-60 stations, 15 countries, 50 my/y Investment ~120 M€, Budget >10 M€/v, Finland 2,5 M€/y Headquarters at FMI, Helsinki & Eastern Finland Univs. partners Finland responsible for N-European atm. stations INTEGRATED CARBON OBSERVING SYSTEM 2013-

17. Greenhouse gases, aerosols and energy fluxes in Tiksi, Sakha (Yakutia)

18. CH 4, CO 2, aerosols CH 4, CO 2 emission

19. 5.6.201619 For more information please contact: Harri Pietarila Head of Unit, Consulting Services FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSITUTE Tel. +358 9 1929 5432, +358 50 337 8224 Email harri.pietarila@fmi.fi Thank You !