1. Population and Employment Trends in the South: Rural Renaissance or Urban Sprawl? Mitch Renkow Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics North Carolina State University

2. Trends in Population Growth in the 1990s In some states rural counties grew nearly as much as urban counties, while in others rural population growth lagged

3. Population Growth in the South, 1990 - 2000 State AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NC OK SC TN VA WV All Counties Metro Counties Rural Counties 10.1% 13.7% 23.5% 26.4% 9.7% 5.9% 10.5% 21.4% 9.7% 15.1% 16.7% 14.5% 0.8% 10.5% 19.1% 23.4% 30.2% 10.9% 6.7% 17.6% 24.3% 12.2% 15.9% 16.6% 15.8% 2.3% 9.2% 9.4% 25.2% 18.5% 8.6% 3.6% 7.5% 16.0% 6.0% 13.2% 16.7% 10.2% -0.2%

4. Trends in Population Growth in the 1990s In some states rural counties grew nearly as much as urban counties, while in others rural population growth lagged 13% of counties in the South experienced population decreases. Most (85%) were rural counties, and most of those were not adjacent to metro counties

5. Southern Counties Losing Population in the 1990s No. of Counties% State AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NC OK SC TN VA WV 12 20 0 8 14 13 3 20 4 0 11 27 17.9 26.7 0.0 5.0 11.7 21.9 15.9 3.0 26.0 8.7 0.0 10.5 49.1

6. Trends in Population Growth in the 1990s In some states rural counties grew nearly as much as urban counties, while in others rural population growth lagged 13% of counties in the South experienced population decreases. Most (85%) were rural counties Most rural population growth occurred in counties adjacent to urban areas Most population growth in remote rural counties associated with retirement communities, tourism

7. -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Rural Counties Metro CountiesAll Counties 1980 - 1990 1990 - 2000 Net Migration in the 1980s and 1990s ‘000 migrants

8. -100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 ALARGAKY LA MSNCOKSCTNWV Rural CountiesMetro Counties Net Migration in the 1990s by State

9. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Rural CountiesMetro CountiesAll Counties In-CommutersOut-Commuters Commuters’ Share of the Workforce in 2000

10. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% FLAROKALNCTNSCLAKYWVMSGAVA In-CommutersOut-Commuters Commuters’ Share of the Workforce by State

11. Distance Traveled by Inter-county Commuters in the South in 2000 No. of Commuters (‘000) % of Commuters Distance (miles) 0 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 50 - 60 60 - 70 70 - 80 > 80 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 875 2,288 3,460 1,154 392 166 102 54 332 9.9 25.9 39.2 13.1 4.4 1.9 1.2 0.6 3.8

12. Trends in Commuting Steady increases in the mobility of workers due to: Significant growth in rural-urban commuting, especially in rural counties located near cities -- Falling transportation costs -- Growing numbers of dual income households -- Increased importance of residential amenities Rural population growth strongly linked to expanding of urban labor markets

13. Allocation of New Jobs among Different Kinds of Workers in North Carolina Kind of Workers Jobs in Rural Counties Jobs in Metro Counties New in-commuters Previous out-commuters Previously unemployed New residents 32.4% 37.3% 1.7% 28.7% 51.5% 28.4% 1.7% 18.5% Whether or not these phenomena are common in other Southern states is an open question...

14. Issues Associated with Population Growth Economic impacts -- Jobs -- Housing prices Demands for public goods and services -- Who pays? -- Who benefits? Land use planning -- Farmland conversion -- Zoning Culture clashes

15. Conclusions Continued increases in “suburbanization” likely in rural counties adjacent to urban areas Increasing strains on local public finances in rural counties Farmland conversion issues aren’t going away Land use planning becoming more important than ever