1. The Potential for Higher Education What do we mean by the potential for Higher Education and how do education professionals identify it in young people? Research by Jim Tate, Steve Furness, Sue Hatt Aimhigher in the South West University of the West of England

2. Research study conducted by the regional team on behalf of Aimhigher West The two criteria of Aimhigher targeting ‘Resources should be targeted at learners with the potential to benefit from higher education who come from under- represented communities.’ [HEFCE targeting criteria] There has been plenty of research into the targeting of under-represented groups but the other criterion of ‘potential’ has been rather overlooked in comparison.

3. The research addressed questions relating to targeting by ‘potential’ when engaged in widening participation. E.g. How should we understand the concept of ‘potential for HE’? How have Aimhigher practitioners been applying this targeting criterion in recent years? Was the HEFCE guidance followed? Is there any consensus view amongst education professionals or any uniformity in method?

4. Estimating a learner’s future capacity is a difficult prediction to make It is fundamental to the raison d’être of widening participation that external factors can and do prevent students from realising their full potential. Actual performance may not reflect potential performance. Dubious to judge potential solely on present attainment. A contentious point: ‘Potential’ pre-intervention or ‘potential’ post-intervention?

5. Potential and the Principle of Selection Selection for entering HE: “courses of higher education should be available for all those who are qualified by ability and attainment to pursue them and wish to do so” (Robbins Report 1963) But In recent years HE has expanded to include an ever broader range of qualifications and modes of study that require different sets of skills and aptitudes.

6. What constitutes the ‘potential for HE’ will change as the character of HE itself changes. The traditional application of the principle of selection (‘academic’ attainment, e.g. A-Levels) is no longer adequate either as the sole selection criteria for entry into HE or for an understanding of ‘potential for HE’. Entrants still need to be selected, but on more diverse and contextually expansive criteria. Potential and the Principle of Selection

7. Two concepts of Potential (1) HE potential as one of the inclusion criteria which qualifies learners to participate in Aimhigher activities. Learners from under-represented groups who have demonstrated ‘potential’ are selected for the event. (2) HE potential as one of the desired outcomes of Aimhigher interventions, emerging as a result of the experience. (Pre-event, potential is latent.) Two distinct conceptions of learner potential in that they are put into operation entirely differently. Choose!

8. How is ‘potential’ being operationalised? The ‘potential to benefit from HE’. How can school age students know what their HE objectives will be? How can their teachers know? The ‘potential to progress to HE’. This does not address the student’s likelihood of success post-entry. It therefore falls short in providing the protection to students envisaged in the phrase ‘potential to benefit’.

9. How is ‘potential’ being operationalised? Aimhigher WestNational Potential to benefit from HE12% (6)12% (9) Potential to progress to HE68% (34)73% (53) Potential to succeed in HE12% (6)10% (7) Other8% (4)5% (4) Table 1: The Language Used

10. Standard Assessment Tests (SATs) Aimhigher WestNational No40% (22)46% (32) Yes31% (17)32% (22) Sometimes29% (8)22% (15) Table 2: The Use of SATs

11. Other Cognitive Assessment Tests (CATs) Aimhigher WestNational No29% (14)57% (38) Yes58% (28)31% (21) Sometimes13% (6)12% (8) Table 3: The Use of Other Tests

12. The Triangulation Approach Aimhigher WestNational % of those who do not use SATS who do not use other tests either 55% (11)77% (24) % of those who do use SATS and who do use other tests as well 94% (15)57% (12) Table 4: The Use of SATs in combination with Other Tests It is almost standard practice to use professional judgement in assessing potential for HE. Used in combination with multiple tests, this affords a triangulation of results in the assessment.

13. The Use of Multiple Indicators Aimhigher WestNational One12% (5)23% (12) Two33% (14)25% (13) Three33% (14)23% (12) More than three23% (10)29% (15) Table 5: Multiple Indicators Percentages total more than 100% due to rounding

14. Professional Judgement 94% of respondents from Aimhigher West and 89% of national respondents indicated that they used their professional judgement at least sometimes. Teachers judgement of potential sometimes relate to measures of attainment, e.g. looking for students with the potential to gain five A* to C at GCSE, or for those who might be on the C/D borderline and were seen as underachieving. Many teachers make judgements of students’ characters in assessing potential and this is the most subjective aspect of the process. There is no uniformity in the measures of judgement.

15. Indicators of a positive attitude included: Commitment to work and enjoyment of school subjects. Engagement in extra-curricula activities and the life of the school. The desire to achieve or a sense of direction in life, evidenced by career and/or educational aspirations. The ability to ask challenging questions in a constructive way. Having organisational ability. Confidence. Having a willingness to listen. Being ‘curious and enquiring’, ‘lively’ and ‘reliable’.

16. Some interviewees said: SATs and CATs were used to establish a numeric threshold for identifying potential because it was useful to have “underlying assessment data to start off with.” Using test results was also seen as a risk-averse strategy in that judgements made on the basis of ‘hard data’ seemed easier to justify. “Because of being made accountable for everything these days.... staff [are] frightened to commit themselves to anything unless you give them a foolproof tick-box to say, ‘Yes that child’s okay’ as to whether or not to put them forward.” (Aimhigher school co-ordinator).

17. Summary of main points (1)Aimhigher/widening participation in schools uses the term ‘potential to progress to HE’ rather than ‘potential to benefit from HE’. (2)SATs and CATs are being used and sometimes used in combination. The use of professional judgement is standard. Therefore multiple indicators of learner potential are being used. There is plenty of opportunity for the triangulation of these different indicators. (3)The more fundamental question of a choice of two distinct and conflicting conceptions of assessing learner potential (before the intervention / after the intervention) remains an issue to be resolved.

18. Full Report available online Download the full report “Who Might Benefit from HE; Identifying Potential” http://www.aimhighersw.ac.uk/research.html Contact Jim Tate James.Tate@uwe.ac.ukJames.Tate@uwe.ac.uk