1. Political Culture and Democratization Preliminary thoughts for chapter 8 of Approaching Democracy: Research Methods in Comparative Politics Michael Coppedge

2. Relevant individual Attitudes: Diffuse vs. specific support, Confidence in institutions and Leaders, interpersonal trust, Tolerance, moderation

3. Relevant individual attitudes Determinants of attitudes: Age, education, income, ethnicity, religion, party, inequality, etc.

4. Relevant individual attitudes Determinants of attitudes Individual participation: Voting, contacting, donating Petitioning, demonstrating, Striking, violence

5. Relevant individual attitudes Determinants of attitudes Individual participation Collective identities: Nationality, ethnicity Religion, tribe, class, Party…

6. Relevant individual attitudes Determinants of attitudes Individual participation Collective identities Elite orientations: Ideology, programs, Moderation, ambitions Polarization

7. Relevant individual attitudes Determinants of attitudes Individual participation Collective identities Elite orientations Policies

8. Relevant individual attitudes Determinants of attitudes Individual participation Collective identities Elite orientations Policies The regime: Level, change, longevity

9. Relevant individual attitudes Determinants of attitudes Individual participation Collective identities Elite orientations Policies Regime Institutions And Processes

10. Forms of direct action by row actor to replace column actor MilitaryMassExecutiveLegisla- ture Courts MilitaryCivil warDirty warMilitary coup MassinsurgencyCivil warElection; protest; Uprising protest ExecutiveManipula- tion of promotions Police action or repression Resigna- tion Presi- dential coup Legisla- ture Impeach- ment CourtsImpeach- ment

11. If this actor takes direct action Democratic outcomes Undemocratic outcomes MassFailed or repressed uprising or insurgency; constitutional succession after successful uprising; resignation Unconstitutional succession after uprising or insurgency; violence provokes excessive repression, coup, or civil war ExecutiveFailed presidential coup; constitutional dissolution; resignation Successful presidential coup; excessive repression MilitaryRepression, dirty war, military coup, back presidential coup, civil war LegislatureImpeachment, vote of no confidence CourtsActions are constitutional by definition

13. Democracy In principle The actual regime institutions leaders policies Complete independence executive congress courts military Government performance Mass support for…

14. Complete independence: no change

15. Connected mass attitudes

16. Mass attitudes converge

17. Connected elite positions

18. Elite orientations converge

19. Bottom-up influence

20. Elite orientations converge to mass average

21. Top-down influence

22. Mass converges to elite average

23. …or to the most influential elite actor

24. More bottom-up than top-down

25. Elites converge to mass position faster than mass converges toward elite position

26. More top-down than bottom-up

27. Mass converges to elite average faster than elites converge toward mass average

28. Government performance affects mass support

29. Mass support trends in direction of exogenous performance

30. Government performance affects elite orientations

31. Elite orientations trend in direction of exogenous performance

32. Positive performance exogenous, all else endogenous

33. Eventually, all actors trend in the direction of steady positive performance because it’s exogenous

34. Negative performance exogenous, all else endogenous

35. Eventually, all actors trend in the direction of steady negative performance because it’s exogenous

36. Variable performance exogenous, all else endogenous

37. Without a steady trend, actors that are only indirectly influenced by performance may never converge with the others

38. Recap We should expect no strong relationship between mass attitudes toward democracy and regimes because –Other kinds of attitudes may matter more –Attitudes don’t matter unless they are translated into action, even if indirectly –Their impact on regimes is necessarily mediated –Snapshots and cross-sections can’t capture the dynamic, endogenous relationships

39. Implications for research Test for associations between attitudes and more proximate outcomes on the pathways to regime change –Election of semiloyal leaders –Mass support for violent, direct action –Elite beliefs about mass reactions to moves that create, preserve, or undermine democracy. How constrained do they feel? Measure mass & elite attitudes frequently Test for convergences, controlling for exogenous factors