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1 RAO UES Anatoly Chubais, CEO EEI International Utility Conference London, March 11, 2008 Power Sector Liberalization and Climate Change: The Russian.

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Presentation on theme: "1 RAO UES Anatoly Chubais, CEO EEI International Utility Conference London, March 11, 2008 Power Sector Liberalization and Climate Change: The Russian."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 RAO UES Anatoly Chubais, CEO EEI International Utility Conference London, March 11, 2008 Power Sector Liberalization and Climate Change: The Russian Model

2 2 Russian Power Sector and RAO UES  Russia is the 4 th largest electricity market in the world  ~5-6% of world generating capacities  Average growth in electricity consumption: 2-4% p.a. since 2006 One of the world’s largest markets… … is being served by the world’s largest utility  Electricity output: > 70% of Russia’s total  Heat output: ~ 33% of Russia’s total

3 3 RAO UES: Pre-reform Model Generation Low voltage & High voltage Grids Supply 73 AO-Energos High Voltage Grids + Grid Services Centralised Dispatch 32 Federal Power Plants Minority Shareholders Russian Government 52%48% RAO UES

4 4 Basics of the Reform: Separation of Monopolistic and Competitive Sectors Monopolistic sectors Dispatching Transmission and Distribution grids Competitive sectors Supply Generation Private property and market Government property and Government regulation

5 5 Reform Opponents Political and Business Elite Changed Their Standing on the Reform Essence UES Reform UES Reform Key political factions in the State Duma Conservatively-minded energy specialists and scientists Majority of regional Governors VIPs in the Government and Kremlin Majority of senators in the Federation Council Influential oligarch groups 2000 - 2008 Majority of minority shareholders

6 6 Competitive market Government ownershipPrivate ownership System Operator Monopolistic sectorsCompetitive sectors Federal Grid Company 1 Interregional Distribution Companies (IDCs) Hydro OGK Supply 6 Wholesale GenCos (OGKs) Rosenergoatom (nuclear) Independent GenCos 14 Territorial GenCos (TGKs) Russian Power Sector: Post-reform Model

7 7 Functional unbundlingLegal unbundlingOwnership unbundling The issue is not settled yet for the majority of EU countries: Ownership unbundling of VICs and spin-off of distribution grids EU countries Deadline for ownership unbundling of RAO UES (Federal Law No. 250, November 4, 2007) Russia July 1, 2008 ?? Power Sector: Functional, Legal and Ownership Unbundling

8 8 Competitive Wholesale Market: Supply/Demand Equation Prices Source: Administrator of Trade System (ATS) Average prices (Europe+Urals and Siberia), Euro/MWh 6 9 12 15 18 123456789101112131415161718192021222324 Day (Apr 07) 6 9 12 15 18 21 01.10.07 08.10.0715.10.0722.10.0729.10.07 Week and month 6 12 18 24. Sept.06Oct.06Nov.06Dec.06Jan.07Feb.07Mar.07Apr.07May.07Jun.07Jul.07Aug.07Sept.07Oct.07Nov.07Dec.07Jan.08Feb 08 Year

9 9 Power Market Development Pace of Liberalization: Government’s Plan and Actual Progress All new capacity and consumption commissioned after 2007 go to the free market 0% 5% 10% 15% 25% 30% 50% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Jan 1, 2007Jul 1, 2007Jan 1, 2008Jul 1, 2008Jan 1, 2009Jul 1, 2009Jan 1, 2010Jul 1, 2010Jan 1, 2011Sept 1, 2006 ~18% (Sept 06) ~20% (Jan 08) Excluding electricity consumption by households actual pace of liberalization (facts and estimates) mandatory increase of the liberalized market share ~ 25% ~35% ~40% ~60% ~70% ~90% 100%

10 10 Electricity Market System: Target Model Competitive wholesale electricity market as of September 1, 2006 Capacity market 2008 Ancillary service market 2008 Derivative market 2008 Liberalized retail markets as of September 1, 2006

11 11 Electricity Demand Growth Outlook: Mid-term and Long-term View Mid-termLong-term Source: UES estimates Basic scenarioOptimistic scenario kWh, bln Average annual increase in 2006-10: 3,5% (basic scenario) 0,980 1,003 1,035 1,070 1,120 0,9 1 1,1 1,2 20062007200820092010 3,5 4,3 3,7 3,9 3 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 2006-20102011-20152016-2020 %

12 12 Prospects until 2030: Target Concept, General Scheme, Investment Programs 2006 2010 2020 2030 General Scheme for locating power capacity until 2020 Target Concept for Development of the Russian Electricity Power Sector until 2030 2006-2010 Investment Program of UES Holding Company 5-year investment programs of energy companies from 2008 2006201020202030

13 13 CAPEX 2006-2010 – 93 bn Euro Sources of Financing Private investments State budget financing Credits and loans Companies’ funds Other Euro, bn 4.8 (5%) 15 (16%) 22.8 (25%) 22.9 (25%) 27.5 (29%) 010203040 Total: ~93 bn Euro (private investments ~27.5 bn Euro)

14 14 EV/IC, Euro/kW (Feb 08, weighted average) EV/length, Euro/km (Feb 08, weighted average) Thermal generation-2008: Key growth drivers Market liberalization causes a stable rise in electricity prices M&A. The approaching competitive sale of OGK and TGK shares to strategic investors makes these assets more attractive to portfolio investors Distribution grids-2008: Key growth drivers: Consolidation of 61 regional grid companies converted into 11 interregional distribution companies (IDCs): higher liquidity; lower cost of capital; entry of large companies with a high free float into the stock market RAB: higher transmission tariffs; optimized revenues, profits, and investments of IDCs Connection fees as an effective CAPEX mechanism Thermal Generation and Grid Assets: Undervaluation and Growth Potential

15 15 Funds raised so far and yet to be raised From Competitive Share Placements and Sales to Strategic Investors Total: ~ 27.5 bn Euro 27,527,5 0,40,4 10 20 30 Euro in billions Fact: 18.8 bn Euro UES estimates: + 8.5 bn Euro 0,8 0,5 0,7 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,8 0,7 1,31,3 3,1 0,3 0,5 0,6 0,2 0,4 1,5 1,2 0,4 2,4 0,3 1,7 1,1 0,7 4,2 2,0 0,7 TGK-13 TGK-14 TGK-7 AprMay Mar 08 TGK-4 TGK-12 May 08 TGK-9 TGK-12 OGK-6 TGK-3TGK-9 Dec Jan 07 08 OGK-5 OGK-3 TGK-5 TGK-3 OGK-5 OGK-4 TGK-1 OGK-2 TGK-8 OGK-3 NovMarMay JunSep Oct 06 07 TGK-10 TGK-7 TGK-11 TGK-6 TGK-10 OGK-1 FebMar 08 TGK-2

16 16 2006-2010 RAO UES Capacity Commissioning Program MW 20062007200820092010 2006-2010 Thermal generation OGKs, TGKs, RAO UES 1 1861 5452 0505 78814 36424 934 Hydro OGK 676904201 2241 6124 013 Total commissioning 1 2532 2352 4707 08915 91928 947 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 MW 20062007200820092010

17 17 RAO UES Investment Program for 2006-2010: Higher Demand for Suppliers’ Products and Services * Power Sector Development Program 2010 vs. 2006 Generation equipment (Procurements of solely primary generation equipment for OGKs and TGKs): ~ 21.6 bn Euro 8-fold Electrical equipment (Procurements solely for FGC): ~ 7.6 bn Euro 4-fold Coal: ~ 731 million tonnes of coal 40% Gas: ~ 848 billion cub.m. of gas 30% Construction materials (Solely cement expenses of TPPs and HPPs): ~ 0.3 bn Euro R&D (Solely in thermal power sector): ~ 2 bn Euro Construction and installation (Solely in thermal power sector): ~ 9 bn Euro 4.5-fold 4-fold 8-fold * Expert estimates

18 18 20062020 Gas generation Coal generation Nuclear generation Hydro generation and other renewable sources Percent of total 41,5 25,1 15,9 17,5 33,2 32,2 20,5 14 0 10 20 30 40 50 Fossil fuel generation: 66,6% Non-fossil fuel generation: 33,4% Fossil fuel generation: 65,5% Non-fossil fuel generation: 34,5% Gas consumption increased from 175 bn cu m to 210 bn cu m (or by 20%) Coal consumption increased from 128 mn t to 285 mn t (or by 123%) Nuclear generation increased from 23.5 GW to 53.2 GW Hydro generation increased from 44.9 GW to 71.7 GW 2020 to 2006: Notes Changes in the Power Generation Mix Effects on Carbon Efficiency Source: RAO UES

19 19 Carbon Efficiency of the Russian Power Sector: Strategy SolutionsKey challenges A surge in power generation Gas-to-coal substitution (the gas share is 8% lower and the coal share is 7% higher in the generation mix by 2020) Gas generation: Introduction of combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) technologies Coal generation: Introduction of clean coal technologies (CCT), introduction of carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems Other requisite measures: - Development of economic and market-based mechanisms for environment protection: CO2 emission tax; CO2 emission trading system - Development of renewable energy sources (hydro, tidal, geothermal, wind) Emission efficiency of the Power Sector (CO2 emissions / Generation) 0,73 0,58 0,44 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 199020052020 (est.) 199020052020 CO 2 emissions, mn t 794552783 Generation, bn kWh 10829531793 Source: RAO UES

20 20 Russian Power Sector: Changes and Estimates of GHG Emissions 20142016 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012 2018 2020 793.51 (1990)1990 level783.3 (2020) ActualEstimates CO2 equivalent, millions of tonnes (basic scenario) It is not until 2020 that the 1990 level of GHG emissions is exceeded Source: RAO UES

21 21 Our journey is about to end 2000 2008


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