1. When permanency remains elusive: A longitudinal examination of the early foster care experiences of youth at risk of emancipating Joe Magruder, MSW Emily Putnam-Hornstein, MSW Barbara Needell, MSW PhD Center for Social Services Research School of Social Welfare University of California at Berkeley The California Child Welfare Performance Indicators Project is supported by the California Department of Social Services and the Stuart Foundation

2. Building on the CFSR… Children and Family Services Review (CFSR) C3.3: Of all children in foster care during the year who were either discharged to emancipation or turned 18 while still in care, what percent had been in foster care for 3 years or longer? The sample used for this analysis allows us to examine the early foster care experiences of those “at risk” of emancipating, for whom permanency was clearly not achieved by their 17 th birthday, regardless of the length of the last spell in care.

3. Overview Using California’s administrative child welfare database, we present a sample of youth who were born in 1988, entered care for the first time prior to turning 14, and were in care on their 17th birthday. We are unable to follow all children who were born in 1988 because of data limitations (we do not have fully longitudinal data)

4. Sample Birth 19882005 In Foster Care at age 17 2002 First Entry to Foster Care Data on children who first entered child welfare supervised care before age 14 and were in care at age 17 (child welfare or probation supervised) were drawn from a longitudinal extract of the California Child Welfare Services/Case Management System (CWS/CMS) At risk of emancipating (regardless of actual permanency outcome) Entry to foster care before age 14 (regardless of the length of the last episode) 14 th Birthday

5. Inclusionary Criteria Not in study sample

6. Characteristics 2005 Performance: C3.3 Between July 2005 and July 2006: approximately 5,121* youth emancipated or turned age 18 while still in care (60% had been in care 3+ years) Snapshot View July 2005: 5,131* 17-year olds in care Our Sample (born in 1988, age 17 in care in 2005, first entry before age 14) 3,615 youth meet our sample criteria Roughly 70% of all 17-year olds in care in 2005 (e.g., 70% of the snapshot sample) first entered care prior to age 14 *Includes only youth currently under child welfare supervision

7. An “Average” youth in this study sample… First entry at 6.9 years of age Over 7 years (aggregate) spent in out-of-home care Approximately 5 different placements over the course of two separate episodes in care 46% of life through age 17 spent in out-of-home care

8. CA Black Child Pop.= 6% CA Black Out-of-Home Pop. = 29% Number of youth in sample who first entered as infants is roughly twice that of entries at every other age Last removal…higher than usual “other” due to children removed for “Law Violation”. Other exits translate into roughly 200 AWOLs, 75 incarcerations and a number of other seemingly non-permanent exits. The average youth spent 23% of life through age 17 in a primary out-of-home placement. More than half of youth have more than one spell in care 73% of the youth in this sample who are last supervised by probation are male.

9. Removal Reason (problematic) NeglectPhysicalSexualOtherMissing

10. Age at First Entry (N=3,615) Median: 6.9 yrs Median: 8.2 yrs Median: 8.5 yrs Median: 4.0 yrs

11. Episodes / Spells in Care

12. Number of Placements

13. Number of Placements (by longest placement at age 17)

14. (1,467) (44) (1,069) (962) (73) (1,789) (1,826) (317) (1,263) (1,375) (86) (574) (81) (403) (79) (300) (2,502) Life in Out-of-Home Care for this sample…

16. Exits from Care…

17. Racial Demographics (sample summary) 41% of the sample is Black (Black children are roughly 6% of the CA pop) 76% (367) of youth who entered as infants were Black 25% of Black children had entered as infants, but only 7% of Hispanic and 4% of White children The median age at entry for Black children was 4.0 years vs. 6.9 years for children of all other races Black children in this sample had spent roughly 60% of their lives in out-of-home care by the age of 17 Black children in this sample spent an average of just over 10 years in care vs. 7.9 years for children of all other races

18. Age Demographics (sample summary) The median age at entry was 6.9 years Youth in our sample were more likely to have first entered care as infants than at any other age Youth who entered during infancy proceeded to spend the vast majority of their lives in out of home care (mean=83%, median=96%) Roughly 60% of this time was spent in a primary placement even though permanency was not achieved by the age of 17

19. Model Specification: Model 1: y = probation supervised case (0/1) Model 2: y = one spell in out-of-home care (0/1) Model 3: y = final exit to permanency (0/1)

21. Things to keep in mind… The experience of a later birth cohort would likely be very different… We are not drawing conclusions regarding children who were born in 1988, entered care at a young age, but were not in care at age 17 A large proportion of children at risk of emancipating have a very long history with the child welfare system…

22. joemagruder@berkeley.edu eputnamhornstein@berkeley.edu bneedell@berkeley.edu CSSR.BERKELEY.EDU/UCB_CHILDWELFARE and go to the Presentations tab Thank you to our colleagues at the Center for Social Services Research, the California Department of Social Services, and the Stuart Foundation