1. CIPD 12 March 2009 David Hutcheson MBCI Glen Abbot Ltd.

2. Background: What is a Pandemic?

3. The definition and importance Epidemic Serious outbreak in a single community population Pandemic Epidemic which spreads around the world affecting hundreds and thousands of people Pandemic Flu is currently the number one risk on the UK Risk Register.

4. Spanish flu 1918-19 20-50 million deaths worldwide (>WW1) 200,000 in UK Asian flu 1957-58 1 mill+ deaths worldwide Hong Kong flu 1968 1 mill+ deaths worldwide Normal inter-pandemic period 39-42yrs Now 41 yrs since last pandemic…… “ Sudden … unpredictable … inevitable ” WHO

5. How Does it Spread?

7. Some Figures Pandemics last 1-2 years Come in waves Few months in between Successive waves may be more severe Each wave lasts about 15 weeks Absence rates differ between areas (flu pockets)

8. Clinical Infection Rate The Clinical Infection Rate (CIR) is the ‘hit rate’ % of the population affected. This follows a standard pattern.

9. WHO Alert Phases Inter-pandemic phaseLow risk of human cases1 New virus in animals, no new human virus Higher risk of human cases2 Pandemic alert None or limited human to human transmission 3 New virus causes human cases Evidence of increased human to human transmission 4 New virus causes human cases Evidence of significant human to human transmission 5 Pandemic Efficient and sustained human to human transmission 6

10. United Kingdom Alert Levels When the international situation reaches WHO Phase 6 there will be 4 alert levels in the UK: UK alert level 1 No cases in the UK UK alert level 2 Virus isolated in the UK UK alert level 3 Outbreak (s) in the UK UK alert level 4 Widespread activity across the UK

11. The Myths! 50% of your staff will be off We are going to catch Avian Flu Tamiflu will save us The annual flu jab will stop it Doctors will prescribe antibiotics All those migrating birds are the problem Don’t eat chicken! It’s all a hype and won’t happen

12. So…a pandemic is the main threat to the UK Why are HR Departments so disinterested??

13. There must be a reason! 95% of Corporate Comms departments agreed to be involved first time 60% of Operations Departments agreed first time Even 40% of Finance Departments agreed! BUT……….. Only 15% of HR departments agreed to be involved first time

14. You are the most critical! Pandemics will be an HR problem People will be ill, not systems You will be needed immediately as people ask questions You CANNOT make it up on the spot! This is when you will prove you are worth having! But you don’t want to play……..

15. So prove me wrong!

16. Aberdeen Medical Ltd You are a manufacturing company who produce three medical products Sutures (time critical) Sterilised bone wax Sterilised heart stents (high profit) 1000 employees 300 in each of the Production departments (see above) 70% of Production staff are women 60% of the women have children 100 in management and other back office tasks

17. The Problem..... Your company has no Pandemic Plan The WHO have just declared that they are moving to Level 4 You have a borrowing limit of £9M You are currently at £8.6M Your Board meets in 30 minutes You need to have a plan for them

18. Planning Assumptions The number of staff off will follow the normal pandemic model Each member of staff will be off for 8- 14 days You have a contract which means you will be sued if you fail to deliver your heart stents Sutures are dissolvable and will degrade within 7 days if not packaged

19. Target 10 minutes to discuss what questions staff will ask and what answers you should give 10 minutes for responses 10 minutes feedback and discussion

20. We Have the Solution!

21. Thank you! David Hutcheson MBCI Glen Abbot Ltd David.hutcheson@glenabbot.co.uk 01738 580580