1. U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Circum-Arctic Petroleum Resource Appraisal: Assessment in Circumstances of Extreme Uncertainty USGS IPY 2007-2008 Kickoff Event March 30, 2007 Brenda Pierce, USGS Energy Resources Program

3. from L.P. White, R.S. Bishop and D.L. Gautier, 2005

4. GOALS FOR THE CIRCUM-ARCTIC RESOURCE APPRAISAL  Comprehensive (portfolio effect)  Full range of uncertainty  Objective and unbiased  Transparent and reproducible  Compatible with our previous work  Results in a cost/supply context What is the potential for additions to petroleum reserves from the Arctic?

5. ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES ARE LIMITED IN UNEXPLORED BASINS  Discovery History Analysis  Prospect counting  Reservoir modeling  Geologic synthesis  Analog modeling

6. Science in Support of the CARA  New Map of Arctic Sedimentary Prisms  Classification of Arctic Petroleum Systems  Basin Evolution Chart  Analog Database  Analog Assessment Methodology  Full-cycle Resource Analysis Model

7. Cooperating Organizations  Minerals Management Service  Geological Survey of Canada  Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland  Norwegian Petroleum Directorate  Individual Russian Scientists  Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe  Members of the World Energy Consortium

8. DEVELOP BACKGROUND INFORMATION GEOLOGIC ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT VOLUME & FLOW ASSESSMENT FULL CYCLE SIMULATION DEFINE ASSESSMENT UNITS DEVELOP ANALOG APPROACH DEVELOP ANALOG MODELS FOR VOLUME & FLOW INTEGRATED EVALUATION ALGORITHM

9. NE GREENLAND SIGNIFICANT:  Geologic uncertainty  Technical uncertainty  Economic uncertainty Category 3 sparse seismic, no wells

10. North Danmarkshavn Salt Basin

12. Thank you