1. Deliberative Polls & Citizens’ Assemblies A Short Presentation Antwerp, October 13, 2008 Min Reuchamps

2. Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège Deliberative Polls & Citizens’ Assemblies Conventional Polling vs. Deliberative Polling Deliberative Polling Citizens’ Assemblies Citizens’ Assemblies on the Future of Federalism in Belgium and Canada French-speaking Belgians and Federalism

3. Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège Conventional Polling vs. Deliberative Polling Since George H. Gallup, public opinions polls aim at giving: an accurate picture & a voice to democracy Although they rely on scientific random samples, they measure uninformed opinions Two major difficulties: “rational ignorance” & “non-attitudes” (Downs 1957 & Converse 1964) 59,2 % (N = 1437) 42,5 % (N = 1437) Similar results for the adults (see, e.g., Delli Carpini and Keeter 1996 or Price 1999)

4. Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège Deliberative Polling James S. Fishkin and Robert C. Luskin (1988): Deliberative Polling® Representation: scientific random sample Deliberation: informed opinions It attempts “to represent everyone in a given population, through a statistical microcosm empowered to think about the issues in question under favorable conditions” (Fishkin 2003, 128) 1. A random sample of the population takes a normal survey on a particular issue 2. A random sample of the respondents (400 people) gathers for a deliberative event 3. During the event, the citizens interact in focus groups and with experts 4. Finally, the participants re-take the same survey as in step 1 Key results:  Representative sample of the population to gather for an extensive deliberative event  Opinions change significantly  Respondents become much more informed  Information gains explain a lot of the opinion change  Deliberative polling: one of the most ambitious method of public consultation

5. Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège Citizens’ Assemblies In the recent years, Citizens’ Assemblies on Electoral Reform In BC, The Netherlands, and Ontario Learning process and “decision-making” process Citizens’ Assemblies vs. Deliberative Polls Towards Small Citizens’ Assemblies on the Future of Federalism in Belgium and Canada

6. Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège Citizens’ Assemblies on the Future of Federalism in Belgium and Canada Deliberative Polls (DP)/Citizens’ Assemblies (CA) catch the big picture and provide learning-process: what people think before and after, and how their opinions vary But not: why the citizens change their opinions and what it means Moreover, DP & CA are extremely expensive & not comparative Thus, smaller, comparative and more qualitative experiment Trade-off: not representative but still deliberative

7. Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège Mini Citizens’ Assemblies on the Future of Federalism in Belgium and Canada Research question: the relationship between… … the citizens’ perception of federalism and…... their preferences vis-à-vis the evolution of the federal state? Context: deep-divided polities and societies Perception: knowledge, legitimacy, identity, and perception of the other community Preferences: future reforms of the federal state Four Citizens’ Assemblies: In Flemish- and French-speaking Belgium, English- and French-speaking Canada About thirty citizens for a half-day deliberative event (invitation through lists of diffusion, media, peer-to-peer : i.e. sample of convenience) Pre-questionnaire of 60 questions (perception and preferences) 5 focus groups, 2 experts and 2 politicans Post-questionnaire Creation of profiles/types of citizens for comparison within and between

8. Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège Two Types of Data : Quantitative Data Pre- and post-questionnaire Questionnaire: perception & preferences Not representative but standardization of the responses and guideline for discussions What people think before and after, how their opinions vary, and define groups of citizens

9. Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège Two Types of Data : Qualitative Data Focus groups and interaction participants-experts Two moments in focus groups (for a total of 120’) with trained moderators Two experts and two politicians Perception & Preferences Qualitative content analysis (Mayring 2000) Nature of the beliefs and arguments

10. Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège French-speaking Belgians and Federalism Liège, September 2007, in the middle of the crisis 64 citizens for a one-day discussion Some insights : Federalism has two negative meanings… Walloon or Francophones? And the Future of Federalism? In comparative perspective…

11. Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège

12. Deliberative Polls & Citizens’ Assemblies : Preliminary Conclusion Deliberative Polling (Fishkin and Luskin): Representation & Deliberation But: nature of the changes – cost – comparison Thus, mixing quali- and quanti- deliberative polling in a quasi-experiment In four different fields Done by a graduate student Collecting data and involving citizens in social science research

13. Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège Deliberative Polls & Citizens’ Assemblies Thank you for your attention! Comments and questions welcome! And last but not least, you are welcome to attend/participate in the next Citizens’ Assembly in Antwerp, on November, 2008! For questions or more information: Min.Reuchamps@ulg.ac.be