1. The Battle of New Orleans : Urban Planning After Hurricane Katrina Daniel M. Rothschild Associate Director, Global Prosperity Initiative Mercatus Center at George Mason University drothsch@gmu.edu 703-993-4898

2. Background on Mercatus Research Five-year project  Three sectors of society  What works What I plan to cover Larger research project  Emily Chamlee-Wright (Beloit College)  Virgil Storr (Mercatus Center)  Sanford Ikeda (SUNY – Purchase)  Peter Gordon (USC)

3. Why is Planning an Issue? Old ideas come to the forefront  Policy Entrepreneurs John Kingdon: Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies (1984)  Disaster Capitalists Naomi Klein: The Shock Doctrine (2007) Something needs to be “fixed” Solving collective action problems

4. What’s Working on the Ground Civil Society  Neighborhoods and Civic Groups  Churches

5. July 2006, New Orleans East

6. February 2006, Near UNO

7. What’s Working on the Ground Civil Society  Neighborhoods and Civic Groups  Churches For-Profit Sector  Small Entrepreneurs  Large Businesses Local Government Entrepreneurs (!)

8. What’s Not Working on the Ground Road Home Program No clear rules of the game Moving Money: SBA and CDBG State and Local Governments in Chaos  Permit process a wreck  Lower Ninth Ward Health Clinic Poor communication between governments

9. New Orleans: City Planners Gone Wild Assumption: New Urban Plan Needed Interest Group Politics Five Major Planning Initiatives Additional Regional and De Facto Plans  Louisiana Speaks  Road Home

10. Plan I: ESF-14 Managed by FEMA Mostly matters outside of New Orleans Incorporated into Louisiana Speaks  Regional Plan for Southeast Louisiana  Based on “citizen participation”

11. Plan II: Bring New Orleans Back Announced September 2005 Bypassed City Planning Commission Staffed by Local Notables “Green space” + “Buyouts” = Land Grab December 2005: Canazaro Plan  Three years to build  Shrink “inadequate” neighborhoods Proof of Viability

12. Plan III: Lambert Plan 46 Local Plans Difficulty Defining Neighborhoods “Citizen Participation” Poorly Advertised Community Meetings Quickly Abandoned

13. Plan IV: Unified New Orleans Plan Funded in part by the Rockefeller Foundation; Managed by the Greater New Orleans Foundation Building on Lambert Plan: 14 District Plans Denounced by Lambert

14. Plan IV: Unified New Orleans Plan March 2007: Draft of UNOP Released  BGR: “A wishlist, not a plan”  “You may have the greatest plan in the world, but if we do not understand it, we will not trust it.”  “A hearing is a nice thing, but it’s not participation.” May 2007: Final Draft Released  Did not confront flood risk  No information, no tradeoffs

15. Plan V: Blakely Plan UNOP-Plus $14 billion plan 17 targeted zones for $1.1 billion investment

16. Common Threads in Replanning Top-down Disrespectful of Property Rights Citizen “Participation”

17. “We, the regular everyday run-of-the-mill citizen has had to become experts on everything because we deal with experts about every phase of our lives and they are expert in their field, but we’ve had to become experts on everything, on planning, on construction, on city works, on infrastructure, on organization, on healthcare, on elders, on schools, on Dancer, on Prancer, on Donner, and Blitzen.” - New Orleans resident, March 2007

18. Common Threads in Replanning Top-down Disrespectful of Property Rights Citizen “Participation” Irreconcilable Differences Master Plans that Pick Winners Big Promises, Most Broken Lip Service to Markets Never Really Serious

19. Urban Planning on the Ground Plans Initially Taken Seriously Now Irrelevant to Individual Action Politics and Rumors Taken Seriously

20. “And it’s so confusing because you know you hear one thing on the radio, one saying this; you know bits and pieces of information. There’s no clear plan. Even you go to those meetings; you can’t get a clear answer about what’s what.” –Educator, New Orleans, April 2006

21. Urban Planning on the Ground Plans Initially Taken Seriously Now Irrelevant to Individual Action Politics and Rumors Taken Seriously Signal Noise The persistent distortion of signals that does not self-correct making the underlying signals – the signals that are critical to guiding sustainable recovery – more difficult for people on the ground to read and interpret.

22. “But we have to stay the course. We have to, and this is an analogy that I love because it’s so New Orleans. We are like a folks at a Mardi Gras parade. We have to stand in line and throw our hands up at every float that passes in hopes that we catch something, because surely if we don’t go to the parade, we don’t get nothing. What we mostly get is junk. But if we’re not at the parade, we miss the party. We miss the party. We’ve got to go.” - New Orleans resident, March 2007

23. Lessons for Future Disasters Don’t Lie to People Underpromise, Overdeliver Don’t Trust the Man Don’t Try to Replan Cities Allow Neighborhood Devolution Understand Organic Growth

24. Daniel M. Rothschild Mercatus Center at George Mason University drothsch@gmu.edu 703-993-4898 www.mercatus.org/katrina