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Actualforecast Hydro, wind, and other renewables NGLs Coalbed methane Conventional natural gas Mined and in situ bitumen Conventional heavy oil Conventional.

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Presentation on theme: "Actualforecast Hydro, wind, and other renewables NGLs Coalbed methane Conventional natural gas Mined and in situ bitumen Conventional heavy oil Conventional."— Presentation transcript:

1 actualforecast Hydro, wind, and other renewables NGLs Coalbed methane Conventional natural gas Mined and in situ bitumen Conventional heavy oil Conventional L&M oil Coal Total energy production in Alberta

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3 Alberta supply of crude oil and equivalent actualforecast Non upgraded bitumen Light-medium SCO Pentanes plus Heavy

4 actualforecast 10.7 7.1 5.3 3.6 1.8 0 Tcf Total marketable gas production and demand 24%25%27%35%42%

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6 Figure 1.2 OPEC crude basket reference price

7 Figure 1.3 Price of WTI at Chicago actualforecast

8 Figure 1.4 Average price of oil at Alberta wellhead actualforecast

9 Figure 1.5 2005 Average monthly reference prices of Alberta crudes

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11 Figure 1.7 Average price of natural gas at plant gate actualforecast

12 Drilling, casing, and completion cost estimates (PSAC 2004 and 2006 Well Cost Studies)

13 Figure 1.9 Canadian economic indicators

14 Figure 1.10 Alberta real investment actualforecast

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16 Figure 2.2. Comparison of Alberta’s crude oil and crude bitumen reserves

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22 Figure 2.8. Alberta crude oil and equivalent production

23 Figure 2.9. Alberta crude bitumen production Surface mining In situ actualforecast

24 Figure 2.10. Total in situ bitumen production and producing bitumen wells Production (10 3 m 3 /d)

25 Figure 2.11. Alberta synthetic crude oil production Synthetic Crude Oil Synthetic crude oil actualforecast

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28 Figure 2.14. Alberta demand and disposition of crude bitumen and SCO Synthetic Crude Oil Alberta demand (mainly SCO) actualforecast SCO removals from Alberta Nonupgraded bitumen removals from Alberta

29 Figure 3.1. Remaining established reserves of crude oil Heavy Light-medium

30 Figure 3.3. Annual changes to waterflood reserves

31 Figure 3.2. Annual changes in conventional crude oil reserves

32 Figure 3.4. Distribution of oil reserves by size Remaining reserves (10 3 m 3 ) Total number of pools (10 3 m 3 ) Initial reserves (10 3 m 3 )

33 Figure 3.5. Oil pool size by discovery year

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35 Figure 3.7. Geological distribution of reserves of conventional crude oil

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37 Figure 3.9. Alberta’s remaining established oil Reserves versus cumulative production

38 Figure 3.10. Growth in initial established reserves of crude oil Ultimate potential (3130) actualforecast Actual as of December 31, 2005

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42 Figure 3.14. Conventional crude oil production by modified PSAC area PSAC 8 PSAC 7 PSAC 5 PSAC 3 PSAC 4 PSAC 2 PSAC 1

43 Figure 3.15. Total crude oil production and producing oil wells

44 Figure 3.16. Crude oil well productivity in 2005

45 Figure 3.17. Total conventional crude oil production by drilled year % of total production from oil wells Pre-1996 200520042003200220002001 1999 1998 1997 1996 5% 3% 4% 44% 6% 3% 10% 5% 7% 8%

46 Figure 3.18. Comparison of crude oil production Texas onshore Louisiana onshore Alberta crude oil

47 Figure 3.19. Alberta crude oil price and well activity actualforecast

48 actualforecast Figure 3.20. Alberta daily production of crude oil Heavy Light-medium

49 Figure 3.21. Capacity and location of Alberta refineries

50 actualforecast Figure 3.22. Alberta demand and disposition of crude oil Crude oil removals from Alberta Alberta demand

51 Figure 3.23. Alberta supply of crude oil and equivalent actualforecast Non upgraded bitumen Light-medium SCO Pentanes plus Heavy

52 Figure 3.24. Alberta crude oil and equivalent production actualforecast

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55 Figure 4.3 Coalbed methane production forecast

56 Figure 5.1. Annual reserves additions and production of conventional marketable gas

57 Figure 5.2. Remaining conventional marketable gas reserves

58 Figure 5.3. New, development, and revisions to conventional marketable gas reserves

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60 Figure 5.5. Distribution of conventional gas reserves by size Remaining reserves (10 9 m 3 ) Total number of pools (10 6 m 3 ) Initial reserves (10 9 m 3 )

61 Figure 5.6. Conventional gas pools by size and discovery year

62 Figure 5.7. Geological distribution of conventional marketable gas reserves

63 Figure 5.8. Remaining conventional marketable reserves of sweet and sour gas Sweet natural gas Sour natural gas

64 Figure 5.9. Expected recovery of conventional natural gas components

65 Figure 5.10. Growth in initial established reserves of conventional marketable gas Ultimate potential (6.52) actualforecast Actual as of December 31, 2005

66 Ultimate potential based on 2004 study Figure 5.11. Conventional gas ultimate potential Remaining reserves Production

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68 Figure 5.13. Conventional gas in place by geological period

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70 Figure 5.15. Successful conventional gas wells drilled and connected

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73 Figure 5.18. Marketable gas production by modified PSAC area PSAC 6 PSAC 4 PSAC 5 PSAC 2 PSAC 3 PSAC 1 Gas from oil wells PSAC 7 PSAC 8 % of total production from oil wells Connection year 2% 4% 3% 12% 5% 20% 38% 5% 10%

74 Figure 5.19. Conventional marketable gas production and number of producing wells

75 Figure 5.20. Natural gas well productivity in 2005

76 Pre-1996 200520042003200220002001199919981997 1996 Gas from oil wells Figure 5.21 Raw gas production by connection year % of total production from oil wells 3 Connection year 2 4 27 8 7 10 12 17 4 6

77 Figure 5.22 Average initial natural gas well productivity in Alberta

78 Figure 5.23. Alberta natural gas well activity and price actualforecast

79 Figure 5.24. Conventional marketable gas production actualforecast 7.1 5.3 3.6 1.8 0 Tcf

80 Figure 5.25. Historical volumes “available for permitting”

81 Figure 5.26. Comparison of natural gas production Texas onshore Louisiana onshore Alberta

82 Figure 5.27. Gas production from bitumen upgrading and bitumen wells actualforecast

83 Figure 5.28. Total gas production in Alberta actualforecast

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85 Figure 5.30. Alberta natural gas storage injection/withdrawal volumes

86 Figure 5.31. Alberta marketable gas demand by sector Reprocessing plant shrinkage Transportation Electricity generation Other industrial Industrial - petrochemical Industrial – oil sands Residential Commercial actualforecast

87 Figure 5.32. Gas demand for bitumen recovery and upgrading actualforecast Purchased gas Produced gas from bitumen Process gas from upgrading* * Some 1.2 10 9 m 3 of process gas not shown on this chart is used for electricity generation (2006-2015).

88 actualforecast 10.7 7.1 5.3 3.6 1.8 0 Tcf Figure 5.33. Total marketable gas production and demand 24%25%27%35%42%

89 Figure 6.1. Remaining established NGL reserves expected to be extracted from conventional gas and annual production

90 Figure 6.2. Remaining established reserves of conventional natural gas liquids

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92 Figure 6.4. Ethane supply and demand actualforecast * Excludes solvent flood volumes

93 Figure 6.5. Propane supply from natural gas and demand actualforecast * Excludes solvent flood volumes

94 Figure 6.6. Butanes supply from natural gas and demand actualforecast * Excludes solvent flood volumes

95 Figure 6.7. Pentanes plus supply from natural gas and demand actualforecast * Excludes solvent flood volumes

96 Figure 7.1. Sources of sulphur production Sour gas Refining and upgrading

97 Figure 7.2. Sulphur production from oil sands

98 Figure 7.3. Canadian sulphur offshore exports

99 Figure 7.4. Sulphur demand and supply in Alberta Alberta demand Removed from Alberta Stockpile actualforecast

100 Figure 8.1 Total coal production

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102 Figure 8.3. Alberta marketable coal production actualforecast


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