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1 Keurig Green Mountain Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) 17 March 2014 Saad Hirani | David Liang
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A GENDA Industry Analysis Company Analysis Company Fundamentals Chart Analysis Competitors Competitive Analysis Entry strategy 2
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I NDUSTRY A NALYSIS - C OFFEE RETAIL AND PRODUCTION 3 Overview Coffee retail and production industry has a huge addressable market with stable consumption. 107 million people in the United States drink coffee at an average of 3.5 cups per day 2010 retail coffee industry was $30- $32 billion in the United States Industry Analysis | Company Analysis | Company Fundamentals | Charts | Competitors | Summary World’s second most sought-after commodity Valued at $100 billion worldwide Addressable Market Stable Consumption Inexpensive luxury good Coffee consumption very resistant price swings
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C OMPANY A NALYSIS – K EURIG G REEN M OUNTAIN 4 Company Overview Keurig Green Mountain is a coffee producer (traditional and single-serve packaging) and manufacturer of the Keurig single-serve coffee brewers. Industry Analysis | Company Analysis | Company Fundamentals | Charts | Competitors | Summary Coffee producer and coffee brewer manufacturer in USA and Canada Forms: whole bean, ground coffee, single-serve portion packages Keurig single-cup brewers and single-serve portion packs (92% of net sales in 2013) Value Proposition Instant coffee with consistent quality Less than 3 minutes Over 290 selections 39%
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C OMPANY A NALYSIS – K EURIG G REEN M OUNTAIN 5 Business Model Keurig Green Mountain is a coffee producer (traditional and single-serve packaging) and manufacturer of the Keurig single-serve coffee brewers. Industry Analysis | Company Analysis | Company Fundamentals | Charts | Competitors | Summary Razor blade and razor model Sell brewer at cost Sell K-cups at high margin K-cup variety sold through: Own brands (Tully’s, Van Houtte, Timothy’s) Licensed brands (Starbucks, Dunkin’ Donuts, Tazo, Folgers) Generic brands
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C OMPANY F UNDAMENTALS 6 Essential Statistics Keuring Green Mountain has seen consistently growing revenues and operating margins. A decreasing debt-to-assets ratio means a lower leveraged position Market Cap: $16.86 bn $33.3 bn (KRFT) $169.4 bn (NESM) P/E: 33.6 (Industry average: 17.7) Forward P/E: 25.4 ROIC: 16.6% Industry Analysis | Company Analysis | Company Fundamentals | Charts | Competitors | Summary Highlights Gross profit grew 40% (2012) and 27% (2013) Record high 5.1mm Keurig machines sold in 2014 Q1 Debt-to-assets decrease form 24% (2010 to 4% (2013)
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C HART A NALYSIS 7 Industry Analysis | Company Analysis | Company Fundamentals | Charts | Competitors | Summary Source: Google Finance
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C OMPETITORS 8 Main Competitors Keurig Green Mountain is the strongest competitor in the single-serve coffee industry due to the lower price range of its brewers and its offering of the largest variety of coffee. Nestle (Nespresso) Kraft Foods (Tassimo) Starbucks Corp. (Verismo) Industry Analysis | Company Analysis | Company Fundamentals | Charts | Competitors | Summary Competitive Advantage Lower cost in Keurig brewer price Lowest starting price Largest variety of coffee options offered in K-Cups Both Keurig Green Mountain brands and from generic brands 2014 Single-serve brand of the year Generic-Brand K-Cups Keurig Green Mountain’s patent on K-cups expired in 2012 Generic K-cups entry into market Minimal impact Green Mountain’s coffee brands grew 34% while K-Cup industry grew 38% ROIC grew from 13% (2012) to 17% (2013)
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S UMMARY 9 Catalysts Keurig Green Mountain is the company best positioned to benefit from the shift from traditional automatic drip coffee makers to single-serve coffee. Growth of single-serve coffee industry Industry Analysis | Company Analysis | Company Fundamentals | Charts | Competitors | Summary Entry Strategy Buy GMCR when stock price drops below $100.00 Current price: $115.56 Hold into Q2 earnings report on May 7, 2014 Single-serve coffee has 30% of coffee industry dollar share 2 Up from 8% in 2011
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