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1 Keurig Green Mountain Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) 17 March 2014 Saad Hirani | David Liang.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Keurig Green Mountain Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) 17 March 2014 Saad Hirani | David Liang."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Keurig Green Mountain Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) 17 March 2014 Saad Hirani | David Liang

2 A GENDA  Industry Analysis  Company Analysis  Company Fundamentals  Chart Analysis  Competitors  Competitive Analysis  Entry strategy 2

3 I NDUSTRY A NALYSIS - C OFFEE RETAIL AND PRODUCTION 3 Overview Coffee retail and production industry has a huge addressable market with stable consumption.  107 million people in the United States drink coffee at an average of 3.5 cups per day  2010 retail coffee industry was $30- $32 billion in the United States Industry Analysis | Company Analysis | Company Fundamentals | Charts | Competitors | Summary  World’s second most sought-after commodity  Valued at $100 billion worldwide Addressable Market Stable Consumption  Inexpensive luxury good  Coffee consumption very resistant price swings

4 C OMPANY A NALYSIS – K EURIG G REEN M OUNTAIN 4 Company Overview Keurig Green Mountain is a coffee producer (traditional and single-serve packaging) and manufacturer of the Keurig single-serve coffee brewers. Industry Analysis | Company Analysis | Company Fundamentals | Charts | Competitors | Summary  Coffee producer and coffee brewer manufacturer in USA and Canada  Forms: whole bean, ground coffee, single-serve portion packages  Keurig single-cup brewers and single-serve portion packs  (92% of net sales in 2013) Value Proposition  Instant coffee with consistent quality  Less than 3 minutes  Over 290 selections 39%

5 C OMPANY A NALYSIS – K EURIG G REEN M OUNTAIN 5 Business Model Keurig Green Mountain is a coffee producer (traditional and single-serve packaging) and manufacturer of the Keurig single-serve coffee brewers. Industry Analysis | Company Analysis | Company Fundamentals | Charts | Competitors | Summary  Razor blade and razor model  Sell brewer at cost  Sell K-cups at high margin  K-cup variety sold through:  Own brands (Tully’s, Van Houtte, Timothy’s)  Licensed brands (Starbucks, Dunkin’ Donuts, Tazo, Folgers)  Generic brands

6 C OMPANY F UNDAMENTALS 6 Essential Statistics Keuring Green Mountain has seen consistently growing revenues and operating margins. A decreasing debt-to-assets ratio means a lower leveraged position  Market Cap: $16.86 bn  $33.3 bn (KRFT) $169.4 bn (NESM)  P/E: 33.6 (Industry average: 17.7)  Forward P/E: 25.4  ROIC: 16.6% Industry Analysis | Company Analysis | Company Fundamentals | Charts | Competitors | Summary Highlights  Gross profit grew 40% (2012) and 27% (2013)  Record high 5.1mm Keurig machines sold in 2014 Q1  Debt-to-assets decrease form 24% (2010 to 4% (2013)

7 C HART A NALYSIS 7 Industry Analysis | Company Analysis | Company Fundamentals | Charts | Competitors | Summary Source: Google Finance

8 C OMPETITORS 8 Main Competitors Keurig Green Mountain is the strongest competitor in the single-serve coffee industry due to the lower price range of its brewers and its offering of the largest variety of coffee.  Nestle (Nespresso)  Kraft Foods (Tassimo)  Starbucks Corp. (Verismo) Industry Analysis | Company Analysis | Company Fundamentals | Charts | Competitors | Summary Competitive Advantage  Lower cost in Keurig brewer price  Lowest starting price  Largest variety of coffee options offered in K-Cups  Both Keurig Green Mountain brands and from generic brands  2014 Single-serve brand of the year Generic-Brand K-Cups  Keurig Green Mountain’s patent on K-cups expired in 2012  Generic K-cups entry into market  Minimal impact  Green Mountain’s coffee brands grew 34% while K-Cup industry grew 38%  ROIC grew from 13% (2012) to 17% (2013)

9 S UMMARY 9 Catalysts Keurig Green Mountain is the company best positioned to benefit from the shift from traditional automatic drip coffee makers to single-serve coffee.  Growth of single-serve coffee industry Industry Analysis | Company Analysis | Company Fundamentals | Charts | Competitors | Summary Entry Strategy  Buy GMCR when stock price drops below $100.00  Current price: $115.56  Hold into Q2 earnings report on May 7, 2014  Single-serve coffee has 30% of coffee industry dollar share 2  Up from 8% in 2011


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