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Tracking and Extrapolating Precipitation Episodes in the National Convective Weather Forecast D. Ahijevych, S. Trier, C. Mueller, D. Megenhardt.

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Presentation on theme: "Tracking and Extrapolating Precipitation Episodes in the National Convective Weather Forecast D. Ahijevych, S. Trier, C. Mueller, D. Megenhardt."— Presentation transcript:

1 Tracking and Extrapolating Precipitation Episodes in the National Convective Weather Forecast D. Ahijevych, S. Trier, C. Mueller, D. Megenhardt

2 Warm Season Precipitation Episodes

3 Rainfall Streaks

4 Potential Predictability Coherent regeneration of convective rainfall Anchored to diurnal cycle and topography Frequent when forecast skill is lowest Can we identify and track long-lived episodes in real time?

5 Rainfall Streak Detection

6

7

8 TITAN Software Finds coherent precipitation zones in smoothed radar reflectivity (>10dBZ) Extrapolates based on last 6 hours of propagation

9 Extrapolated Precipitation Zone

10 6 hours later…

11

12 Extrapolation issues Mergers and splits Back building & sudden southward propagation

13 Dissipation Issues False alarm rate Use new episode climatology based on TITAN track history Filter by time-of-day and longitude with current rain streak climatology

14 Probability of Rain Streak Continuance (red=high blue=low)

15 Final Thoughts Implementing in NCWF Best lead time to use (3-9h?) Blending with numerical model Regime dependency? Some periods work better than others

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