1. Anticipating Sea Level Rise Response in Puget Sound Alexander (Sascha) Petersen Research Update and Discussion CIG Seminar May 31, 2007

2. Presentation Outline Focus of the Study Focus of the Study Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Resilience Framework Resilience Framework Mapping Inundation Scenarios Mapping Inundation Scenarios Floodplain Mapping Floodplain Mapping Legal and Institutional Structure Legal and Institutional Structure Potential Response Options Potential Response Options

3. Presentation Outline Focus of the Study Focus of the Study Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Resilience Framework Resilience Framework Mapping Inundation Scenarios Mapping Inundation Scenarios Floodplain Mapping Floodplain Mapping Legal and Institutional Structure Legal and Institutional Structure Potential Response Options Potential Response Options

4. Research Questions 1) What are the key regulatory and institutional barriers to incorporating sea level rise science and its uncertainty into decision making? 2) How can these impediments be overcome in order to develop a policy framework that can effectively incorporate consideration of the uncertainty associated with sea level rise?

5. Current Climate Change Focus

6. Mitigation vs. Adaptation Mitigation Mitigation Decrease long-term changes Decrease long-term changes National/International National/International Adaptation Adaptation Decrease Sensitivity Decrease Sensitivity Increase Adaptive Capacity Increase Adaptive Capacity Proactive or Reactive Proactive or Reactive Local/Regional Local/Regional

7. Geographic Focus Add map of Washington or U.S. http://www.worldmapsonline.com/hskwa221 7washingtonncrmaprr.htm

8. Local Governments Long-term planning horizons Long-term planning horizons Tradition coastal zone land use management Tradition coastal zone land use management King County & City of Seattle King County & City of Seattle Shoreline Master Program Updates Shoreline Master Program Updates http://www.seattle.gov/mayor/ RainierCourtFactSheet.htm

9. Presentation Outline Focus of the Study Focus of the Study Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Resilience Framework Resilience Framework Mapping Inundation Scenarios Mapping Inundation Scenarios Floodplain Mapping Floodplain Mapping Legal and Institutional Structure Legal and Institutional Structure Potential Response Options Potential Response Options

10. Climate Change & Sea Level Rise IPCC WGI SPM 2001

11. Climate Change & Sea Level Rise IPCC WGI SPM 2007

12. Climate System Positive Feedbacks Positive Feedbacks Non-linear Dynamics Non-linear Dynamics Threshold Responses Threshold Responses Multiple Equilibria Multiple Equilibria Rial et al. 2004

13. Sea Level Rise Science Alley et al. 2005

14. Rates of Sea Level Rise Rising since Glacial Maximum Rising since Glacial Maximum Historic Peak Rate 50mm/yr (Alley et al. 2005) Historic Peak Rate 50mm/yr (Alley et al. 2005) 19,000 and 14,500 years ago 19,000 and 14,500 years ago Last 50 years = 1.8 + 0.3 mm/yr (Nerem et al. 2006) Last 50 years = 1.8 + 0.3 mm/yr (Nerem et al. 2006) 1993-2003 = 3.1 + 0.4 mm/yr (IPCC 2007, Nerem et al. 2006) 1993-2003 = 3.1 + 0.4 mm/yr (IPCC 2007, Nerem et al. 2006) Thermal Expansion 1.2—1.8 mm/yr Thermal Expansion 1.2—1.8 mm/yr Glacial and Ice-sheet Melt 1.0—1.2 mm/yr Glacial and Ice-sheet Melt 1.0—1.2 mm/yr

15. Temperature and Sea Level Rise Predictions IPCC WG I Tech Summary 2001

16. Sea Level Rise Science IPCC 2007 IPCC Working Group I SPM 2007

17. Sea Level Rise Science IPCC 2007 However, this does not “…include the full effects of changes in ice sheet flow, because a basis in published literature is lacking…. Larger values cannot be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise.” (IPCC WGI SPM 2007, pg 11) However, this does not “…include the full effects of changes in ice sheet flow, because a basis in published literature is lacking…. Larger values cannot be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise.” (IPCC WGI SPM 2007, pg 11)

18. Empirical Approach to Sea Level Rise Prediction Rahmstorf (2007): 0.5m – 1.4m by 2100 Rahmstorf (2007): 0.5m – 1.4m by 2100

19. Sea Level Rise Uncertainty Physics of ice-sheet dynamics Physics of ice-sheet dynamics Difficulty modeling (projections) Difficulty modeling (projections) Human emissions choices Human emissions choices Decision-makers forced to make choices in an uncertain environment. ???

20. Presentation Outline Focus of the Study Focus of the Study Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Resilience Framework Resilience Framework Mapping Inundation Scenarios Mapping Inundation Scenarios Floodplain Mapping Floodplain Mapping Legal and Institutional Structure Legal and Institutional Structure Potential Response Options Potential Response Options

21. Resilience Framework Focus on Social-Ecological System Focus on Social-Ecological System Non-Human Systems Human Systems Adapted from SMA Curriculum Update 2007

22. Resilience Framework “..the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks.” (Walker et al. 2004 pg 6)

23. Resilience Landscape Adapted from Walker et al. (2004)

24. Resilience Landscape Adapted from Walker et al. (2004)

25. Resilience & Sea Level Rise

26. Increasing Resilience Decrease Exposure (Mitigation) Decrease Exposure (Mitigation) Decrease Sensitivity (Adaptation) Decrease Sensitivity (Adaptation) Increase Adaptive Capacity (Adaptation) Increase Adaptive Capacity (Adaptation)

27. Social-Ecological Resilience Madonna 1983 Ray of Light 1998 The Confessions Tour 2007 Accept uncertainty  Accept uncertainty  Embrace change  Allow for transformation Madonna = Resilience? Madonna = Resilience? Berkes et al. 2003

28. Value of Resilience Framework For Sea Level Rise Response Focusing on resilience does not attempt to eliminate uncertainty but to develop better ways to co-exist with inherent and irreducible uncertainties. (Klinke & Renn 2002)

29. Presentation Outline Focus of the Study Focus of the Study Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Resilience Framework Resilience Framework Mapping Inundation Scenarios Mapping Inundation Scenarios Floodplain Mapping Floodplain Mapping Legal and Institutional Structure Legal and Institutional Structure Potential Response Options Potential Response Options

30. Areas Mapped  Harbor Island, Seattle  Quartermaster Harbor, Vashon-Maury Island  Downtown Olympia

31. Relative Rates of Sea Level Rise Local Vertical Land Movements Local Vertical Land Movements Holdahl et al. 1989 Holdahl et al. 1989 Mitchell et al. 1995 Mitchell et al. 1995 Verdonck 2006 Verdonck 2006

32. Vertical Land Movements General Trends Consistent General Trends Consistent Neah Bay Uplift Neah Bay Uplift Little Movement in Puget Sound Little Movement in Puget Sound Seattle Variation Seattle Variation -2 mm/yr 1989 -2 mm/yr 1989 0 mm/yr 2006 0 mm/yr 2006 Not Linear or Consistent? Not Linear or Consistent?

33. Digital Elevation Map Based on Puget Sound Integrated Bathymetry/Topography (Finlayson 2005) Based on Puget Sound Integrated Bathymetry/Topography (Finlayson 2005) Datum Datum Horizontal: Lambert Conformal Conic, North American Datum of 1983. Horizontal: Lambert Conformal Conic, North American Datum of 1983. Vertical: North American Vertical Datum of 1988 Vertical: North American Vertical Datum of 1988

34. Digital Elevation Map LIDAR Vertical Resolution: LIDAR Vertical Resolution: Original Original 6 ft cells 6 ft cells + 30 cm + 30 cm Processed (Blended, Mosaic) Processed (Blended, Mosaic) 30 ft cells 30 ft cells Error likely < 2 ft (Finlayson 2005) Error likely < 2 ft (Finlayson 2005) http://www.wy.nrcs.usda.gov/wygis/lidar.html

35. 2 feet 6 feet 4 feet Sea Level Rise Scenarios Based on Global Predictions Based on Global Predictions Map Resolution Map Resolution

36. Inundation Mapping Determination of OHW Determination of OHW Simple inundation scenarios Simple inundation scenarios Doesn’t reflect dynamic processes Doesn’t reflect dynamic processes Storms, Flooding… Storms, Flooding… Human Response Human Response Overlay of Aerial Photography Overlay of Aerial Photography

37. Inundation Mapping

39. Presentation Outline Focus of the Study Focus of the Study Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Resilience Framework Resilience Framework Inundation Scenarios Inundation Scenarios Floodplain Mapping Floodplain Mapping Legal and Institutional Structure Legal and Institutional Structure Potential Response Options Potential Response Options

40. Seattle Flood Plain Scenarios Focus on Flood Zone Focus on Flood Zone 100 yr Flood (1% chance/year) 100 yr Flood (1% chance/year) Coastal flood zone not on FIRM Maps Coastal flood zone not on FIRM Maps Highest Tide Highest Tide 12.14 ft. NAVD88, 1.89 feet. above OHW 1/27/1983 12.14 ft. NAVD88, 1.89 feet. above OHW 1/27/1983

41. Seattle Flood Plain Scenarios Seattle Flood Plain Scenarios

42. Seattle Flood Plain Scenarios

45. Presentation Outline Focus of the Study Focus of the Study Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Resilience Framework Resilience Framework Mapping Inundation Scenarios Mapping Inundation Scenarios Floodplain Mapping Floodplain Mapping Legal and Institutional Structure Legal and Institutional Structure Potential Response Options Potential Response Options

46. Legal & Regulatory Framework Federal, State, and Local Federal, State, and Local Key Laws: Key Laws: SMA SMA Floodplains (FEMA) Floodplains (FEMA) Coastal Zone Management Coastal Zone Management

47. Growth Management Act Critical Area Ordinances Frequently Flooded Areas Geological Hazard Federal FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) NOAA Coastal Zone Management Act MHHW OHW 200’ State Dept of Ecology Coastal Zone Management Shoreline Management Act Flood Plain Management Act WDFW Hydraulic Permit FlRM Local FlRM Flood Maps/Building Code Shoreline Master Program FlRM Federal Consistency 100-yr Flood Plain Private Property Public Trust MLW MHW

48. Growth Management Act Critical Area Ordinances Frequently Flooded Areas Geological Hazard Federal FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) NOAA Coastal Zone Management Act MHHW OHW MLW 200’ State Dept of Ecology Coastal Zone Management Shoreline Management Act Flood Plain Management Act WDFW Hydraulic Permit FlRM Local FlRM Flood Maps/Building Code Shoreline Master Program FlRM Federal Consistency 100-yr Flood Plain Private Property Public Trust MHW Coastal Management

49. Growth Management Act Critical Area Ordinances Frequently Flooded Areas Geological Hazard Federal FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) NOAA Coastal Zone Management Act MHHW OHW MLW 200’ State Dept of Ecology Coastal Zone Management Shoreline Management Act Flood Plain Management Act WDFW Hydraulic Permit FlRM Local FlRM Flood Maps/Building Code Shoreline Master Program FlRM Federal Consistency 100-yr Flood Plain Private Property Public Trust MHW Flood Zones

50. Growth Management Act Critical Area Ordinances Frequently Flooded Areas Geological Hazard Federal FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) NOAA Coastal Zone Management Act MHHW OHW MLW 200’ State Dept of Ecology Coastal Zone Management Shoreline Management Act Flood Plain Management Act WDFW Hydraulic Permit FlRM Local FlRM Flood Maps/Building Code Shoreline Master Program FlRM Federal Consistency 100-yr Flood Plain Private Property Public Trust MHW

51. Growth Management Act Critical Area Ordinances Frequently Flooded Areas Geological Hazard Federal FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) NOAA Coastal Zone Management Act MHHW OHW MLW 200’ State Dept of Ecology Coastal Zone Management Shoreline Management Act Flood Plain Management Act WDFW Hydraulic Permit FlRM Local FlRM Flood Maps/Building Code Shoreline Master Program FlRM Federal Consistency 100-yr Flood Plain Private Property Public Trust MHW

52. Presentation Outline Focus of the Study Focus of the Study Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Resilience Framework Resilience Framework Mapping Inundation Scenarios Mapping Inundation Scenarios Floodplain Mapping Floodplain Mapping Legal and Institutional Structure Legal and Institutional Structure Potential Response Options Potential Response Options

53. Sea Level Rise Response #1 Designated Floodplain & Building Codes Barriers Barriers Coastal flooding not always mapped Coastal flooding not always mapped Past may not represent future Past may not represent future FEMA flood map update frequency FEMA flood map update frequency FEMA updates 20+ years FEMA updates 20+ years

54. Sea Level Rise Response #1 Designated Floodplain & Building Codes Response Options Response Options Include coastal flooding Include coastal flooding Increase frequency of flood map updates Increase frequency of flood map updates Current FEMA flood map evaluation 5 years Current FEMA flood map evaluation 5 years SMA & GMA update requirement: 7 years SMA & GMA update requirement: 7 years Flexible laws based on environmental changes Flexible laws based on environmental changes

55. Sea Level Rise Response #2 Management of Shoreline Armoring Barriers Barriers Private property rights Private property rights Multiple appropriate planning scenarios Multiple appropriate planning scenarios Determination of cumulative impact horizon Determination of cumulative impact horizon

56. Titus, J., 1998, Rising Seas….. Maryland Law Review 57 (4), 1283

57. Sea Level Rise Response #2 Management of Shoreline Armoring Response Options Response Options Consider dynamic shoreline for cumulative impact assessment Consider dynamic shoreline for cumulative impact assessment Rolling easement Rolling easement Resilience Framework: Accept and prepare for change

58. Sea Level Rise Response #3 Shoreline Designations Response Options Response Options Create “threatened by sea level rise” category Create “threatened by sea level rise” category Tailor sea level rise response to shoreline designations Tailor sea level rise response to shoreline designations

59. Sea Level Rise Response #4 Connection to CZMA “Because global warming may result in a substantial sea level rise with serious adverse effects in the coastal zone, coastal states must anticipate and plan for such an occurrence.” (16 USC § 1451 L) Coastal zone enhancement objective includes: “…anticipating and managing the effects of potential sea level rise…” (16 USC § 1456b A2)

60. Sea Level Rise Response #4 Connection to CZMA Response Options Response Options Update SMA to include consideration of sea level rise Update SMA to include consideration of sea level rise Leverage Federal Consistency Leverage Federal Consistency Request additional funding through “enhancement grants” Request additional funding through “enhancement grants”

61. Summary Sea Level Rise Response is Difficult Sea Level Rise Response is Difficult Value of Resilience Framework Value of Resilience Framework Social-Ecological System Context Social-Ecological System Context Accepts Uncertainty Accepts Uncertainty Expects Change Expects Change Mapping Vulnerabilities Mapping Vulnerabilities Exploring Response Options Exploring Response Options

62. Acknowledgements CIG, JISAO, and NOAA for funding this research CIG, JISAO, and NOAA for funding this research Dr. Edward L. Miles, Dr. Thomas M. Leschine and Douglas J. Canning for their knowledge, insight, guidance and support Dr. Edward L. Miles, Dr. Thomas M. Leschine and Douglas J. Canning for their knowledge, insight, guidance and support King County (Jill Moe & Sally Abella) King County (Jill Moe & Sally Abella) City of Seattle (Miles Mayhew and Brennon Staley) City of Seattle (Miles Mayhew and Brennon Staley) Rob Norheim & Hugh Shipman Rob Norheim & Hugh Shipman Family, Friends and Colleagues Family, Friends and Colleagues

63. Thanks! Alexander (Sascha) Petersen 3707 Brooklyn Ave N, Seattle, WA 98103 Sascha5@u.washington.edu

64. Titus, J., 1998, Rising Seas….. Maryland Law Review 57 (4), 1283