1. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 1 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook Professor Jacqueline McGlade Executive Director, European Environment Agency Reykjavik, Iceland 19 November 2005 A European perspective on sustainability

2. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 2 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook SOER 2005 - Country Perspectives: Greenhouse gas emissions Energy consumption Renewable electricity Emissions of acidifying substances Emission of ozone precursors Freight transport demand Area under organic farming Municipal waste Use of freshwater resources

3. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 3 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook The European Environment Outlook concept Exploring sustainability of baseline projections (2020-2030), alternative scenarios and variants (up to 2100). Highlight the interactions between and implications of sectoral developments and environmental issues. Link to past and ongoing Commission exercises when appropriate. Provide a coherent quantitative assessment as feasible, supplemented by qualitative analyses where needed. Key messages / early warnings for policy-makers.

4. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 4 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook The Analytical Framework Outlooks developed for various environmental themes GHG emissions and climate change Air quality (CAFE) Water stress Water quality Key driving forces (socio/technico/economic, DG TREN) Demography Economy activity Technological and sectoral developments Consumption patterns Energy and transport Agriculture Waste and material flows Common set of assumptions for driving forces to ensure consistency and facilitate cross-cutting analysis

5. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 5 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook Integrated quantitative assessment Water stress and water quality outlooks Models WaterGAP (water use and availability), A model on nutrients from UWWT plants Agriculture outlooks Models CAPSIM (sectoral model) Climate change and air pollution outlooks Models PRIMES (energy & transport) POLES (energy & transport) TIMER/FAIR (GHGs emissions) RAINS (air pollution) IMAGE (climate change) Euromove (ecosystem composition) Waste and material flows outlooks Models A macro-econometric waste & material flows model Results also used as input to other Technical Reports 'Household Consumption' EEA Technical Report 'Sustainable use of natural resources' EEA Technical Report 'Halting the loss of biodiversity' EEA Technical Report 'Environmental aspects of enlargement' Advisory Group 'Europe’s Environment & the Global Dimension' Multimedia 'Environment & health' EEA Technical Report 'Climate change & sustainable energy' EEA Technical Report State of the Environment and Outlook report 2005 'European Environment Outlook' EEA Technical Report

6. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 6 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook Key messages The more fragmented European society is expected to increase some environmental pressures Population development 1990-2030

7. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 7 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook Key messages European greenhouse gas emissions are expected to meet short-term targets if all additional policies and measures planned so far are implemented European greenhouse gas emissions are expected to exceed long-term targets set to prevent harmful climate change

8. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 8 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook Key messages The recent enlargement of the European Union is expected to provide both opportunities for and threats to the environment Use of fertilisers, Nutrient balances, ammonia losses and GHG emissions (2020/2001)

9. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 9 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook Key messages Air pollution and its impacts on health and ecosystems are expected to decline significantly Excess of nitrogen deposition (2000 and 2030 for the MFR scenario) Emissions of air pollutants (Baseline and Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) scenarios, index 100 in 2000)

10. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 10 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook Key messages Water use in Europe is expected to become more sustainable, however many Mediterranean river basins will continue to face water stress Water stress in large European river basins, 2000 and 2030

11. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 11 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook Key messages The Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive is expected to reduce significantly the overall discharge of nutrients from point sources Discharges of nitrogen and phosphorous from wastewater treatment plants

12. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 12 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION.