1. Climate change and agriculture in Africa – analysis of knowledge gaps and needs Tom Owiyo 1 ClimDev-Africa

2. Outline Introduction Agriculture in Africa -challenges and opportunities Critical issues for the UNFCCC In Durban 2

3. Introduction Average contribution to GDP – 15 %, up to 50 %; Persistently underperformed for much of the past half century; Between 1998 and 2008, number of hungry people increased by 20%; Yield decline: 1967 to 2007, farm output decreased in Africa (by  30%), increased South Asia (x2) and in East Asia (x3); 3

4. Why the poor performance? Low investment by African governments: –Africa = 4% of budget; Asia = 14% Rain-fed: only 6.5% of African farmland irrigated; Asia = 40% Low use of fertilizers per ha = Africa 10 times (10 kg) less world average (110 kg), 20 times less than Europe Post harvest grain losses = USD 4 bn/yr (15% of output) Other challenges: natural resource degradation (land, soils and soil nutrients); lack of access to credit. 4

5. Global population – 9 bn by 2050, food production needs to increase by 70% (USD 83 bn annually) Rising incomes and changing diets 5 Opportunities for African agriculture

6. Large untapped agricultural potential – over 60% of cultivable in Africa (31% in Latin America) 6 Opportunities for African agriculture Sources: FAO, IFPRI, Standard Bank Research

7. Climate change 7

8. The UNFCCC Objective Article 2: The ultimate objective of this Convention … is to achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient …to ensure that food production is not threatened…

9. Impact on African Agriculture Monumental challenges to crops and animals through: temperature and rainfall Biological organisms and their physiological processes

10. Up to the 4AR Very broad impact of CC on agricultural productivity in different parts of the continent, mainly through

11. Climate change impacts: IPCC 4AR Agricultural changes (e.g. millet, maize) Changes in ecosystem range and species location Changes in water availability coupled to climate change Possible changes in rainfall and storms Desert dune shifts Sea-level rise and possible flooding in megacities Changes in health possibly linked to climate change Conflict zones

12. Temperatures rising and yields falling Current average temperatures across the globe are 0.74°C above the historical reference year of 1905. An average warming of 1.5°C above historical temperatures is expected by 2050. For Africa, 2010 was the warmest year on record. Temperatures averaged over Africa were 1.29°C above the long ‐ term average. From 1980 ‐ 1998, global maize and wheat yields have decreased by 3.8% and 5.5% respectively due to increasing temperatures.

13. Threats from extreme events and slow onset temperature rise “Temperature changes have a much stronger impact on yields than precipitation changes.” Climate extremes will become much more common, with “relevant temperature thresholds for crops … to be exceeded on more days in most regions.” “The majority of African countries will have novel climates over at least half of their current crop area by 2050.” Stanford University Program on Food and Environment

14. Observed and projected averaged summer temperatures for the Sahel (Battisti and Naylor 2009)

15. Three policy questions to consider Global goal: 1.5 or 2°C? Prioritizing adaptation: how? Addressing mitigation smartly

16. Global goal: 1.5 or 2°C? Crop yields: higher T has linear effect on crop yields up to a threshold, beyond which, crop yields drop dramatically: –Pollen: viability decline (Barnabas, 2008; Hatfield, 2008) –Seed development: embryonic development may cease (Klueva et. al., 2001; Maestri, 2002) –Photosynthesis: reduced (Barnabas, 2008). Livestock sector: behavioral and metabolic changes, reduced quality and quantity of feed, reduced feed intake, decline in productivity (Thornton et al., 2009). Food security is clearly threatened by CC in the relatively near term (Lobell, et. Al. 2008).

17. Prioritizing adaptation Adaptation of agricultural systems must be a central and immediate concern of country ‐ level planning, regional cooperation and international finance. AGN should actively engage in the negotiations and ensure that no window compromises the ability of African countries to produce exploit its potential in this sector. The UNFCCC Adaptation Framework could include a specific work program on agriculture, similar to the work program on loss and damage. African countries need finance, technology transfer and capacity building

18. Addressing mitigation smartly Agricultural emissions from developed countries are 2 ‐ 3 times those from African countries. Mitigation markets will not be a stable or predictable funding source for African agriculture Soil carbon markets may actually threaten future production –Offset markets require continued emissions elsewhere –Reversal of C sequestered in soil and trees as temperature rises

19. What happened in Durban? AW-LCA – as a mitigation element under “cooperative sectoral approaches and sector specific actions”. Question: whether to open a WP on agriculture under the SBSTA in the context of Convention’s Article 4.1(c) Adaptation Framework, NAPs, Nairobi WP, Program on Loss and Damage and the Adaptation Committee REDD-plus – agriculture not explicitly mentioned. Decision 1/CP.16: directs Parties to address drivers of deforestation though an SBSTA WP and to report to COP 18 on findings

20. No Work Program on agriculture came out of Durban LULCF decision negotiated under the AWG - KP (Decision 2/CMP.7) opened four programs of work that could have a bearing on agriculture: –explore more comprehensive LULUCF accounting –develop modalities and procedures for additional LULUCF activities to add to CDM –consider alternatives to non-performance of CDM –develop and recommend procedures for applying concept of additionally

21. Thank you ACPC 21