1. Lessons learned from climate awareness and adaptive planning in three Atlantic fisheries communities using the VCAPS process for dialogue-based participatory vulnerability analysis, collaborative systems dynamic modeling, and citizen science Jessica Whitehead, N.C. Sea Grant S. Tuler 2, T. Webler 2 E. Stancioff 3, J. Davis 4, E. Fly 4, 5 2 SERI, 3 U Maine Cooperative Extension/ME Sea Grant, 4 S.C. Sea Grant, 5 CISA/Univ. of SC May 14, 2015

2. Resilience in fishing communities requires adapting to multiple consequences of climate variability and change across multiple sectors.

3. HOW DO WE GET FROM DATA TO RESILIENT FISHERMEN?

4. VCAPS supports initial phases of hazard and climate change planning and implementation… …through group discussion and learning… …supported by real-time diagramming.

5. Probing questions, integrative discussion What impacts do hazards have in your community? Why do you care about the impacts? What is the result? What makes these impacts better, worse, larger, smaller? What can you do to prevent or mitigate this?

6. VCAPS as first step for participatory fisheries adaptation modeling South Thomaston, ME: Rising water temperature impacts on lobster shell hardness and movement Beaufort, SC: Drought and salinity impacts on blue crab migration, spawning, and recruitment Wellfleet, MA: Rising temperatures (air and water) and sea level rise impacts on oyster and quahog aquaculture, including Vibrio infections

7. Challenges drive divergent follow-up methodologies ME: recent event provided data, fishermen willing to engage in modeling SC: high uncertainty about factors affecting crab populations, geographically dispersed in region, preference for individual vs. group meetings MA: fragmented decision making authorities with short-term planning horizons, disease threat new and poorly understood, very engaged participants with already established relationships

8. Next steps informing resilience South Thomaston, ME: System dynamics model of catch and price Changes in handling practices for more vulnerable product Beaufort, SC: identification of significant data gaps in understanding drought impacts on crab landings “Crabbers who Care” network to collect supplemental data to inform future system dynamics modeling Wellfleet, MA: facilitated ad hoc meetings Report for town officials and shellfish and natural resources management to recommend actions

9. VCAPS conceptual framework structures thinking, discussions in fishing communities Real-time diagramming supported understanding, information-sharing Results informed tailored next steps that will enable adaptation decisions to be made

10. For more information, contact: Jessica Whitehead – j_whitehead@ncsu.edu j_whitehead@ncsu.edu www.vcapsforplanning.org Funded by NOAA Coastal and Oceans Climate Applications Grant #NA12OAR4310106