1. Will I Make My Connection? Ryan Chen Bonny Simi

2. Scenario Grandparents invited the young couple to Florida for Family reunion during Thanks Giving. Grandparents invited the young couple to Florida for Family reunion during Thanks Giving. They booked tickets which connect them to Florida through JFK on Wednesday at 7pm. They booked tickets which connect them to Florida through JFK on Wednesday at 7pm. They thought having 20 minutes of connection time should be good. As soon as they arrived at the airport they realized their starting flight is already delayed by 1 hour. They thought having 20 minutes of connection time should be good. As soon as they arrived at the airport they realized their starting flight is already delayed by 1 hour. When they get to the connecting point, they misconnected… When they get to the connecting point, they misconnected… 2

3. 3 Objectives Using historical data, our project and analysis seeks to answer the following questions: What is the probability of making a connecting flight through JFK airport on JetBlue airlines in the days around Thanksgiving? What is the probability of making a connecting flight through JFK airport on JetBlue airlines in the days around Thanksgiving? How much time between connecting flights should someone allow to guarantee making the connection? How much time between connecting flights should someone allow to guarantee making the connection? What is the minimum time the airline should allow while still having a high success rate? What is the minimum time the airline should allow while still having a high success rate?

4. 4 Data Description Data used in this analysis: Flight information for departures/arrivals to JFK collected from Nov. 15 – 30, 2006 to 2007 over 24 hour period. These include their scheduled time and actual time. This data set is huge as it contains a total of around 10,000+ flights. Flight information for departures/arrivals to JFK collected from Nov. 15 – 30, 2006 to 2007 over 24 hour period. These include their scheduled time and actual time. This data set is huge as it contains a total of around 10,000+ flights. Weather information for JFK for same dates from Nov. 15 – 30, 2003 to 2007 over 24 hour period. An IA indicates instrumental approach which means bad weather. It turns out weather affects connection time. Weather information for JFK for same dates from Nov. 15 – 30, 2003 to 2007 over 24 hour period. An IA indicates instrumental approach which means bad weather. It turns out weather affects connection time.

5. Procedures For each flight in our data set, we calculated the delay as: For each flight in our data set, we calculated the delay as: Delay = Actual Time – Scheduled Time Delay = Actual Time – Scheduled Time Given the delay for every single flight, we create a distribution table and maps base on the amount of time that is delayed. The intervals are 0 delay, 10 mins, 20 mins, 30 mins, 1 hour, 2 hour. Given the delay for every single flight, we create a distribution table and maps base on the amount of time that is delayed. The intervals are 0 delay, 10 mins, 20 mins, 30 mins, 1 hour, 2 hour. These data were further divided into four equal time periods: 1) Midnight-05:59am, 2) 06:00-11:59am, 3) noon-05:59pm and 4) 06:00pm-Midnight. These data were further divided into four equal time periods: 1) Midnight-05:59am, 2) 06:00-11:59am, 3) noon-05:59pm and 4) 06:00pm-Midnight. 5

6. Delay Time Distribution 6

7. Does Weather Matter? Along with time of the day, weather plays another important factor in affecting the delays of flights, both arrivals and departures, for every time period we studied. Bad weather increased the probability of a delay from 6%-22% depending on the time of day. On average, a passenger’s chance of a delay increased 10% with bad weather. Along with time of the day, weather plays another important factor in affecting the delays of flights, both arrivals and departures, for every time period we studied. Bad weather increased the probability of a delay from 6%-22% depending on the time of day. On average, a passenger’s chance of a delay increased 10% with bad weather. 7

8. Probability of Delay Given Weather 8

9. 9 Analysis and Model Prerequisite probabilities needed for the analysis: P(on-time), P(delay) P(good weather), P(bad weather) P(delay length | time of day & weather) – delay categorized as shown in table considering impact of time of day, weather and arrival/departure status on delay considering impact of time of day, weather and arrival/departure status on delay Probability Tree for Making a Connection P(Length of Delay) given Time of Day and WX - Arrivals Delay Min 01-910-1920-2930-5960-119120+ 12a-6a bad wx 28.33%18.33%15.00%8.33%5.00%20.00%5.00% 12a-6a good wx 50.72%11.11%9.18%4.35%6.28%8.21%10.14% 6a-12p bad wx 58.28%17.75%10.06%5.62%4.73%2.07%1.48% 6a-12p good wx 68.71%13.21%7.16%3.58%3.84%2.13%1.36% 12p-6p bad wx 38.75%13.96%10.54%6.84%12.82%11.11%5.98% 12p-6p good wx 55.36%12.71%8.71%6.29%9.00%5.50%2.43% 6p-12a bad wx 34.01%8.43%6.98%7.27%13.37%11.63%18.31% 6p-12a good wx 42.53%13.38%12.93%7.62%12.93%8.22%2.39%

10. 10 Mis-Connection Probability Model Assumptions: Three minimum connection time possibilities: 35, 45, or 60 min Three minimum connection time possibilities: 35, 45, or 60 min For delay length of 0 to 9 min. P(connection) = 100% For delay length of 0 to 9 min. P(connection) = 100% Summarized P(connection) calculation: P(making connection) = (P(arriving on-time | good wx) * 100%) + (P(arriving 1-9 late | good wx) * 100%) + (P(arriving 10-19 late | good wx) * P(departing 10+ late | good wx)) + ((P(arriving 20-29 late | good wx) +… (for all delay categories)…+ (the same as above, the previous but instead given bad weather conditions)

11. 11 Final Results and Conclusion P(Making a Connection | Weather, Time of day) Connection Time 35 min 45 min 60 min P(make cxn) given Bad Weather /0-6am 62.8%72.8%78.3% P(make cxn) given Good Weather / 0-6am 63.3%71.6%76.2% P(make cxn) given Bad Weather /6a-12p 78.5%87.3%92.6% P(make cxn) given Good Weather /6a-12p 83.6%89.9%93.4% P(make cxn) given Bad Weather /12-18p 64.5%71.2%78.8% P(make cxn) given Good Weather / 12-18p 73.5%80.2%86.6% P(make cxn) given Bad Weather /18-24p 60.0%63.8%70.6% P(make cxn) given Good Weather / 18-24p 65.8%74.8%82.8% For Thanks Giving or similar high-season holidays, we recommend a minimum connection time of 45 min before 12pm and 60 min for flights after 12pm to give both customers and service providers a better experience.