1. An Overview Mayra Buvinic Monica Das Gupta Ursula Casabonne The World Bank Gender-differentiated impacts of violent conflict

2. Outline of the Presentation Earlier work on gender, poverty and demography: The impact of demographic conditions on poverty How gender inequalities exacerbate this impact Current focus is on how gender inequalities exacerbate the impact of violent conflict on poverty

3. The framework: the impact of demographic conditions on poverty Demographic scenarios Pop. Explosion High fertility Window of Opportunity High proportion at working ages Population Implosion Population aging Demographic Hourglass Missing population at working ages

4. The framework: the impact of demographic conditions on poverty Demographic scenarios Pop. Explosion High fertility Window of Opportunity High proportion at working ages Population Implosion Population aging Demographic Hourglass Missing population at working ages Impact on poverty & growth less resources to invest in human capital and growth Potential for rapid economic growth Strains public and private resources for supporting the aged. Lower potential for economic growth, hhds more vulnerable to poverty

5. The framework: the impact of demographic conditions on poverty Demographic scenarios Pop. Explosion High fertility Window of Opportunity High proportion at working ages Population Implosion Population aging Demographic Hourglass Missing population at working ages Impact on poverty & growth less resources to invest in human capital and growth Potential for rapid economic growth Strains public and private resources for supporting the aged. Lower potential for economic growth, hhds more vulnerable to poverty Gender inequality Impact mediated through gender inequalities Poorer health and lifetime earnings for women, greater household vulnerability to poverty Additional efforts needed to realize women’s contribution to growth. Added resource strains since women have lower economic resources (and live longer). If males missing (war) women/children are vulnerable to poverty. If women missing (sex selection), men deprived of familial support.

6. Focusing on the population hourglass due to violent conflict

7. Hourglass Scenario Adults (especially males) missing due to conflict Germany, 1950Cambodia, 1980 Source: Authors’ analysis based on data from United Nations Population Division (2006).

8. Conflicts in today’s world High proportion of conflicts today are internal conflicts in poor developing countries Collier and others find: –Economically vulnerable nations more likely to experience conflict –Conflicts destroy physical and human capital, disrupt economies, “development in reverse” –“Conflict trap”: conflicts intensify economic vulnerability, so chances of renewed conflict much higher in first 5 years after conflict.

9. Large gender differentials in the impact of conflict Males are subject to far higher excess mortality, injuries, and disability especially younger men, so labor force heavily impacted Females also highly impacted: –Sexual violence –Left to cope with raising children and caring for the old, often in the face of: Breakdown of economy, administration, service delivery Breakdown of civil and social infrastructure Rise in sick, maimed, and traumatized family members Possible loss of household assets Possible displacement from home

10. There are few rigorous studies on the micro-level impacts of violent conflict due to data constraints Large-scale, high quality household surveys often not available for countries affected by violent conflict. Where surveys available, methodological issues: ―often difficult to attribute causality rigorously. ―selective nature of respondents: non-random attrition due to mortality, migration or displacement. But recent work is finding innovative ways of resolving these methodological issues.

11. Emerging Evidence

12. Source Blattman, C. & Annan, J. (2007), ‘The consequences of child soldiering’. Households in Conflict Network Working Paper, 22 Educational attainment lost and labor market effects of child soldiers is substantial: Abducted youth attain 0.78 fewer years of education than non-abducted youth, which implies an 11% reduction in education attainment. Civil wars can have a strong negative impact on schooling

13. .. in some cases girls suffer more. Sources: Chamarbagwala, Rubiana, and Hilcías E. Morán. 2008. “The Human Capital Consequences of Civil War: Evidence from Guatemala” HiCN Working Paper 59; Shemyakina, Olga, 2006. “The effect of armed conflict on accumulation of schooling: results from Tajikistan”. Households in Conflict Network Working Paper 12

14. War exposure can impact heavily on children's health Sources: Guerrero-Serdán, Gabriela. 2009. “The Effects of the War in Iraq on Nutrition and Health: An Analysis Using Anthropometric Outcomes of Children” HiCN Working Paper 55; Bundervoet, Tom, Philip Verwimp, and Richard Akresh, 2009. “Health and Civil War in Rural in Burundi,” Journal of Human Resources 44(2): 536–563.; Akresh, Richard, Philip Verwimp, and Tom Bundervoet, 2007. “Civil War, Crop Failure and Child Stunting in Rwanda,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4208. The effect is between -0.22 to -0.48.

15. Infant mortality goes up during conflict. Source: Humberto, Lopez and Quentin Wodon, 2005. The Economic Impact of Armed Conflict in Rwanda, Journal of African Economies 14 (4): 586-602 Impact of the Genocide on Child Mortality in Rwanda

16. In some contexts, survival of new-born girls is lower than boys. Sources: Verwimp, Philip and Bavel Van, Jan. Child survival and fertility of refugees in Rwanda. European Journal of Population. 2005; 21:271-290

17. Effects on marriage and fertility Disruptions of conflict can lead to: Postponement of marriage (Shemyakina 2007 on Tajikistan, Jayaraman et al 2009 on Rwanda). Postponed childbearing during the conflict (partly due to couple separation), (Heuveline and Poch 2007 on Cambodia, Blanc 2004 on Ethiopia). Rebound in fertility after the conflict (above studies). Shortage of men due to their higher mortality in conflict can lead to: High rates of non-marriage of women. Increase in short-term consensual unions as male bargaining power higher (Colombia). Migration of single women to places with better opportunities (Colombia).

18. Conflict can impact the household economy Studies of the Rwanda conflict in 1994 show that: Household living standards fell among those who lost assets (Justino & Verwimp, 2006). Shift to subsistence farming helped maintain child nutrition indicators despite falling income (McKay and Loveridge, 2005).

19. Introduction to the workshop papers Research program to expand our (limited) understanding of how gender inequalities exacerbate the impact of violent conflict on poverty: human capital marriage and fertility labor force participation and economic empowerment Gender roles and relations