1. Future trends for governance: some correlates, additions and complications Dr FM Orkin Oslo Governance Forum, Session 3D Voksenasen, 3-5 October 2011

2. A start: two precepts, jointly true... What are the lying bastards trying to sell us next?

3. A start: two precepts, jointly true... What are the lying bastards trying to sell us next? What do those noisy amateurs want now?

4. ...and less cynically expressed What are the lying bastards trying to sell us next? Holding government accountable is not only better for citizens, but makes government more moral and efficient What do those noisy amateurs want now Civil society will be more effective for developing the capacities and constituencies to engage government, not merely monitor or criticize it

5. Sarah’s slate of governance trends... Powerful South Regional configurations Global financial volatility Arab spring Media Climate change Urbanisation Inequality Youth Migration Transnational crime Global Local Economic Socio-Cultural

6. Slate of governance trends related... Powerful South Regional configurations Global financial volatility Arab spring Media Climate change Urbanisation Inequality Youth Migration Transnational crime Global Local Economic Socio-Cultural Marketised globalisation

7. ... and some correlates Powerful South Regional configurations Global financial volatility Arab spring Media Climate change Urbanisation Inequality Youth Migration Transnational crime Xenophobia Poverty Global Local Economic Socio-Cultural Popular unrest Food and water Indigenous people

8. ... plus some additions for consideration Powerful South Regional configurations Global financial volatility Arab spring Media Climate change Urbanisation Inequality Youth Migration Transnational crime Xenophobia Exploitation of women HIV & AIDS Poverty Global Local Economic Socio-Cultural Popular unrest Food and water Indigenous people

9. ... and some serious complications Powerful South Regional configurations Global financial volatility Arab spring Media Climate change Urbanisation Inequality Youth Migration Transnational crime Xenophobia Exploitation of women HIV & AIDS Poverty Public sector (in)-capacity Global Local Economic Socio-Cultural Macro/micro Corruption Popular unrest Food and water Indigenous people

10. Some reminders when tackling the issues 1.Many of the issues affect governance in the North as well as South 2.Appropriate mode of engagement for governance context? Autocratic → Pre-democratic → Transitional → Democratic Confront ational → Critical → Cautionary → Constructive 3.Reality check re civil society: flexible, ethical, committed; but also programme-level, uneven quality, un-elected, maybe ephemeral 4.Importance of not bypassing fragile states 5.Advantages of appropriate “mainstreaming” via engagement near or with government: scale, resources, sustainability, legitimacy 6.“Informal” institutions? Maybe need to be reckoned on for interim implementation; but often patrimonial, unfair, unaccountable 7.Participatory implementation is desirable; also non-linear, time- consuming, intricate, contested, and has unintended consequences