1. Demographics – Hope Lutheran High School, Winona Kurt Fuhr, Vice President, LCEF Sept. 2015

2. Minnesota South District You Are Here

3. Demographics…Who?…How?... LCEF uses Mission Insite, a national vendor of demographic data and services Mission Insite uses: City, county, state and government records Census data, housing information Experian records Credit card receipts, and any other public information… This data is continually compiled and updated for accuracy

4. Demographics…What?... A service provided to congregations by LCEF Not the answers, but information about your congregation and community that includes: Age and ethnic distributions Income levels and population projections Demographic “people group” profiles Ministry Clues for outreach

5. Are We Missing Whole Generations in the LCMS? Are We Missing Whole Generations in the LCMS?  In the past thirty years, we have declined by almost 500,000 baptized members.  Only fifty percent of the children baptized in LCMS congregations are confirmed in LCMS congregations.  Only half of those confirmed are active at age twenty-one.  Congregations of our church body in the LCMS are closing every week. President Emeritus Kieschnick Lutheran Church - Missouri Synod

6. Winona – Custom Boundary

7. Age Observations (Custom Boundary) 2015 population in the custom boundary = 33,039 Skewed to younger age groups…college influence: Children…ages 0-21 (34%) Kids 0-4 = 5%, Kids 5-13 = 7%, Kids 14-21 = 22% Gen Y / Gen. X…ages 22-44 (31%) Gen Y/Young X’ers 22-34 = 22%, Gen X’ers 35-44 = 9% Baby Boomers…ages 45-64 (21%) Younger 45-54 = 10%, Older 55-64 = 11% Seniors…ages 65+ (14%) Younger 65-74 = 7%, Older 75+ = 7% Median Age = 29 years…U.S. = 36…MN = 37

8. Age Observations (custom boundary)

9. Age Observations (0-21 ages)

10. Income Observations (custom boundary) 2015 population in the custom boundary = 33,039 > $75,000 household income = 26% $100,000+ household incomes = 14% $75,000 - $99,999 household incomes = 12% >$35,000 - $74,999 household income = 32% $50,000 - $74,999 household incomes = 18% $35,000 - $49,999 household incomes = 14% < $35,000 household incomes = 42% $25,000 - $34,999 household incomes = 11% $15,000 - $24,999 household incomes = 13% < $15,000 household income = 18% Custom Boundary median household income = $43,203 18% lower than U.S. household median income of $52,500 28% lower than MN household median income of $60,210 51% are 2 worker families (49% in MN)

11. Income Observations (custom boundary)

12. 2020 Pop. Growth (custom boundary) 2015 population in the custom boundary = 33,039 +.9% increase in the 5 mile radius to 2020 U.S. population growth average of 5.1% Custom Boundary population figures: 2000 population of 32,087 2010 population of 32,738 (+2% since 2000) 2015 estimated of 33,039 (+.9% since 2010) 2020 projected to 33,065 (+.08% from 2015) 1 of 3 are un-churched in the MN South District +10,900 who don’t know Christ within custom boundary!

13. Demographic Profile – Custom Boundary  2015 population in the custom boundary = 33,039  38% married couples (52% in U.S.)…48% never married  29% have Bachelor or Graduate degrees (28% in U.S., and 32% in MN)  Kids…Nursery through High School: 3,942 total  Nurs./Preschool…7% (292)K-8…61% (2,414)HS…32% (1,236)  68% of households are 1-2 persons…24% are 3-4 people  92% White (34% Germ., 13% Scand.), 2.7% Asian (32% Hmong, 20% Chinese), 1.8% Hispanic (70% Mexican), 1.7% Black  13,390 housing units… 63% 1 unit det., 16% 3-19 unit, 8% 20-50 unit, 5% 2 un.  63% owner occupied homes… 37% renters  38% of housing built < 1939, 24% from 1960-79, 21% from 1980  30% are executive, professional, and manager jobs  27% are technical, sales, and service positions  43% are production, transportation, farming and laborer jobs  78% commute (drive) alone… 10% walked  84% < 20 min. commute

14. Mosaic Segments  Overall data is the big picture…  Mosaic Segments, the “people groups” are the detailed drill down  Total of 71 demographics segments

15. Mosaic Groups and Segments “Family Tree”

16. Demographic Segments in the Custom Boundary  Groups and Segments are “A” through “S”, in descending order based on affluence  Top 5 Segments in the custom boundary…  51% of the households: J36 “Settled and Sensible”=19%2,434 hh’s M45 “Diapers and Debit Cards”= 9%1,084 hh’s O53 “Colleges and Cafes”= 8%1,079 hh’s Q64 “Town Elders”= 8% 987 hh’s N64 “True Grit Americans”= 7% 862 hh’s

17. Demographic Segments in the Custom Boundary SegmentDescriptionAgesChildrenEducationWorkIncome J36 – Settled and Sensible Older, middle-class and empty nesting couples and singles in city neighborhoods 50-75Empty Nest High SchoolBlue Collar or Retired $35,000 - $75,000 M45 – Diapers and Credit Cards Young working class families and single parent households living in small established city residences 20-35Yes, younger kids Some CollegeBlue Collar, to Sales/Svcs. $35,000 - $75,000 O53 – Colleges and CafesYoung singles and recent college graduates living in college communities 20-35Few, some single moms College + Graduate Degree Sales/Svcs. to White Collar $20,000 - $35,000 Q64 – Town EldersStable minimalist seniors living in older residences and living sedentary lifestyles 65+Empty Nest High SchoolRetired$15,000 - $35,000 N46 – True Grit Americans Older middle-class households in town and country communities located in the nation’s midsection 50-65Empty Nest Some CollegeBlue Collar or Retired $25,000 - $50,000

18. M45 – Diapers and Credit Cards – Profile Young working-class families and single parent households living in small established city residences

19. M45 – Diapers and Credit Cards – Profile Young working-class families and single parent households living in small established city residences

20. M45 – Diapers and Credit Cards – Profile Young working-class families and single parent households living in small established city residences

21. M45 – Diapers and Credit Cards – Profile Young working-class families and single parent households living in small established city residences

22. Discussion Thoughts and Next Steps  34% of the population are ages 0-21  65% of the population are under age 44  Younger population is of course skewed by presence of the colleges

23. Next Steps for High School  41 enrolled in 2014/2015  Numbers for 2015/2016 and beyond…  Building and location plans…

24. It’s About Jesus Though I am free and belong to no man, I make myself a slave to everyone, to win as many as possible…I have become all things to all men so that by all possible means I might save some. I Corinthians 9: 19, 22b