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国际宏观经济政策 理论与实例 Spring, 2005
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Instructor 何茵 朗润园 620 Tel : 62759485 Email : yin.he@ccer.pku.edu.cn yin.he@ccer.pku.edu.cn
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T.A. 史晓霞
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Textbooks Macroeconomics, N. Gregory Mankiw World Publisher 《宏观经济学》 ( 第 4 版 ) 格里高利 曼昆 人民大学出版社, 2000 年 参考书:《全球视角的宏观经济学》 捷弗里 · 萨科斯等著,费方域等译 上海三联书店 · 上海人民出版社 1997
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Grading Homework : 10% Project: 20% Quiz: 10% Mid-term: 30% Final: 30%
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Group Project Anything you feel interested in Macroeconomics Paper (10%) --- short Presentation (10%) --- peer evaluation
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Group Project Paper 1. Raise the question 2. Existing literature 3. Your hypothesis or analysis Tables or graphs w/ data are preferred Some econometrics analysis is a plus
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Economics Jacob Viner (Harvard, 1892-1970) --- “a thing that the economists do” John Maynard Keynes (Cambridge, 1883-1946) --- “an easy subject, at which few excel!” Lionel Robbins (Cambridge, 1898-1984) Economics Economics is a science that studies human behavior as a relationship between ends (wants) and scarce means (scarcity) that have alternate use.
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Economics Studies human behavior --- Uncertainty *** It depends… *** on what? --- factors Why? --- intuitions How? --- logic Conclusions?
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Economics Should you get married? Well, it depends. (Yes! You’re right! ) the one --- the one? --- she/he want to get married as well? --- age --- personality & life style --- psychological cost ……
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Economics Should the developing countries liberalize the foreign investment? --- Type Portfolio (stock market; financial system) Direct (form;sectors;areas) --- Scale ……
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Reasons to Learn Macroeconomics 1. It affects society’s well-being 2. It affects individual well-being 3. It affects politics
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Example (Unemployment) Social impact --- Each 1% increase in the unemployment rate is associated with: 920 more suicides 650 more homicides 4000 more people admitted to state mental institutions 3300 more people sent to state prisons 37,000 more deaths Increases in domestic violence and homelessness
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Example (Unemployment) Individual impact --- consumption --- investment --- other individual decisions Politics --- election
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Contents in Macroeconomics 1. The economy in the long run 2. The economy in the short run 3. Policy debate 4. Open economy policy
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The economy in the LR (Growth)
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The economy in the LR (Unemployment)
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The economy in the LR (Money and Inflation)
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The Economy in the Short Run Introduction to economic fluctuations Aggregate Demand Aggregate Supply
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Policy Debate How to make policy in an uncertain world? 1) Should policy be active or passive 2) Should policy be conducted by rule or by discretion?
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Government Debt & Budget Deficit Tradition views of government debt Ricardian Equivalence Other thoughts about government debt
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Government Debt & Budget Deficit
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Open Economy Policy Exchange rate The Mundell-Fleming model The Small Open Economy (SOE) under floating exchange rates The SOE under fixed exchange rates Should exchange rates be floating or fixed?
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