1. June 27, 20071 Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Assessment for 2010 and 2012 Resource Adequacy Forum Steering Committee Meeting Northwest Power Pool Offices June 27, 2007

2. June 27, 2007 2 Outline  Review of the Northwest Resource Adequacy Standard  2010 and 2012 Assessments  Comparison to Other Reports

3. June 27, 20073 Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Standard

4. June 27, 2007 4 Guidelines for a Standard Components Metric – something that can be measured Target – acceptable value for the metric The metric is an assessment of available resources compared to expected loads The target is set to minimize the risk of curtailments due to inadequate supply

5. June 27, 2007 5 Metrics  Energy – Annual average load/resource balance, in units of average megawatts  Capacity – Surplus sustained- peaking capability, in units of percent

6. June 27, 2007 6 Targets  Energy – zero, i.e. loads and resources should be in balance, on average, over the year  Capacity – surplus percent required to cover  Operating reserves  Extreme weather event  Other contingencies

7. June 27, 2007 7 Winter Capacity Target 6% for operating reserves 15% for adverse temperature reserves Target: 25% 4% for planning adjustment reserves

8. June 27, 2007 8 Summer Capacity Target 6% for operating reserves 6% for adverse temperature reserves Target: 19% 7% for planning adjustment reserves

9. June 27, 20079 Resource Assessment for 2010 and 2012

10. June 27, 2007 10 Resource Adequacy Assessment Energy 20102012Target Firm L/R Bal23218 + IPP2528 + non-firm1500 Total426040460 In Average Megawatts

11. June 27, 2007 11 Resource Adequacy Assessment Capacity 20102012Target Winter48%46%25% Summer32%30%19% Surplus generating capacity over the average peak load

12. June 27, 2007 12 Implementation Plan  “Green light” – Regional power supply is adequate  “Yellow light”  “Yellow light” warning – economic standard is not met in either the 3 rd or 5 th year or if the physical standard is not met in the 5 th year.  “Red light” warning – the physical standard is not met in the 3 rd year.

13. June 27, 200713 Comparison to other Reports

14. June 27, 200714 “The Forum’s overarching goal is to establish a Resource Adequacy Framework for the PNW to provide a clear, consistent, and unambiguous means of answering the question of whether the region has adequate deliverable resources to meet its loads reliably and to develop an effective implementation framework.” Resource Adequacy Forum

15. June 27, 200715 “The White Book projections are used as inputs into BPA’s long-range resource planning process to assist planning for adequate and reliable load service for the Federal system and the PNW region.” Bonneville Power Administration

16. June 27, 200716 “Each year the Northwest Regional Forecast reports the sum of individual utilities’ projected electric loads and anticipated generating resources as an indicator of the Northwest utilities’ need to acquire additional power in the next decade.” PNUCC

17. June 27, 2007 17 Comparison of Methods Forum Uses the Council’s regional load forecast Assumes full availability of resources Assumes some use of non-firm resources, including uncontracted resources Sets resource targets based on a 5 percent loss-of-load probability PNUCC Assesses utility loads and resources Based on utilities’ assessment of resource availability and loads Counts only firm resources No explicit target for adequacy BPA Similar to PNUCC but includes uncontracted regional resources No explicit target for adequacy

18. June 27, 2007 18 Comparison of Methods Forum Regional perspective Does the region as a whole have sufficient resources, including non-firm resources, to provide adequate service PNUCC Utility perspective Does a utility have sufficient firm resources to provide adequate service BPA Federal perspective Does the federal supply have sufficient firm resources to provide adequate service

19. June 27, 2007 19 Firm Loads and Exports (2010) RA ForumPNUCCBPA Non-DSI209192084321878 DSI302812473 Exports909866913 Net Load221302300723264

20. June 27, 2007 20 Resources and Imports (2010) RA ForumPNUCCBPA* Firm Hydro115551149611793 Firm Imports869814873 Large Thermal465444046104 Renewable Resources57687281 Miscellaneous0240 Intra-company04040 Other95900 Cogeneration105711521991 Non-utility001450 Combustion Turbines269215182515 Total223622068424807 *BPA total includes IPP generation

21. June 27, 2007 21 Load/Resource Balance (2010) RA ForumPNUCCBPA Load221302300722553 Resources223622068424807 IPP(3366) Firm Balance232(2323)(1112) IPP Resources252830863366 Bal w/IPP27607632254 Plan Adjust150000 Bal w/adjust42607632254

22. June 27, 2007 22 Conclusions Forum Green Light - Regional resources are sufficient to maintain an adequate supply Not all regional resources are secured by utilities Utilities should examine their own needs and take appropriate resource actions (some of those actions might be to secure uncommitted regional resources) PNUCC Sum of utilities’ firm resources are insufficient to meet firm load Utilities need to take resource actions BPA Sum of federal firm resources are insufficient to meet firm load BPA needs to take resource actions (i.e. press release)