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Y-T-D 2009 Spot Revenue Analysis 1st Q ’09 -25.2-27.9 2nd Q ’09 -24.5-25.6 1st H ’09-24.9-26.7 July ’09-20.3-22.9 Y-T-D-24.3-26.2 TVB Estimates GTSS Spot TV % ChangeBaseTotal
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Automotive – Fctry, Dlr Assn & Dlrs-50.3 Quick Serve Restaurants-12.8 Furniture Stores-26.4 Legal Services-3.4 Wireless Telecom Providers+2.5 Bundled Telecom Products/Svcs-21.0 Hospitals, Clinics & Medical Centers-13.0 Automobile Insurance-28.7 Cable TV Providers & Systems+34.3 Colleges & Universities+3.4 1st Half 2009 Category Analysis Source: TNS Media Intelligence % Change Top 10 Spot Categories2009/2008
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Automotive Ad Spending 1st H 2009 Chrysler-Cerberus277,022535,906-48.3 Ford702,153842,518-16.7 General Motors886,1941,365,644-35.1 Subtotal Big 31,865,3682,744,067-32.0 BMW88,998124,820-28.7 Daimler140,379173,914-19.3 Honda433,153534,813-19.0 Hyundai/KIA343,890398,719-13.8 Isuzu45,981425-89.2 Mazda114,625176,283-35.0 Mitsubishi23,56272,596-67.5 Nissan290,004475,551-39.0 Subaru50,87563,958-20.5 Toyota621,742908,260-31.5 Volkswagen215,601197,3619.2 Subtotal All Other2,322,8763,126,700-25.7 Grand Total4,188,2445,870,766-28.7 Overall $Overall $% Parent Co.1 st H 20091 st H 2008Ch. Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 9/09
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Automotive Spot TV $ 1st H 2009 Chrysler-Cerberus96,904203,564-52.4 Ford141,182245,365-42.5 General Motors68,122229,237-70.3 Subtotal Big 3306,208678,166-54.8 BMW16,25526,950-39.7 Daimler8,47243,380-80.5 Honda130,160177,104-26.5 Hyundai/KIA78,348106,662-26.5 Isuzu21130-83.8 Mazda11,30755,285-79.5 Mitsubishi2,42718,373-86.8 Nissan45,056139,930-67.8 Subaru8,45910,860-22.1 Toyota153,705319,425-51.9 Volkswagen47,32048,743-2.9 Subtotal All Other501,530946,843 -47.0 Grand Total807,7391,625,009 -50.3 1 st H 20091 st H 2008 Spot TV $Spot TV $% Parent Co.($000)($000)Ch. Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 9/09
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Automotive Spot TV Share 1st H 2009 Chrysler-Cerberus35.037.7 Ford20.128.4 General Motors7.716.6 Subtotal Big 316.424.3 BMW18.321.4 Daimler6.025.0 Honda30.032.6 Hyundai/KIA22.826.7 Isuzu45.919.9 Mazda9.931.3 Mitsubishi10.324.4 Nissan15.529.2 Subaru16.617.0 Toyota24.734.8 Volkswagen21.923.9 Subtotal All Other21.630.3 Grand Total 19.327.7 1 st H 20091 st H 2008Spot TV Parent Co. % Share% Share Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 9/09
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Automotive Spot TV Share 200230.4 200328.6 200428.6 200527.2 200631.1 200730.2 200828.8 1 st H 200827.7 1 st H 200919.3 Automotive Ad Spending forSpot TV Year ofShare Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 9/09
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Base Business Analysis Year % Change 2001-15.6 20028.7 20030.6 20044.6 2005-1.2 20062.4 2007-1.8 2008-11.1 Thru July 2009-24.3
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2008/2009 Spot TV $ Political Analysis 1 st Half 407.2170.6-236.6-58.1 2 nd Half 1,139.8714.4-425.4-37.3 Total 1,547.0885.0-662.0-42.8 Source: CMAG Dollars (M)20082009(e)$ Change% Change
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Now The Year Ahead What Can We Expect?
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Here’s What the Industry Analysts Are Saying About 2010 Here’s What the Industry Analysts Are Saying About 2010
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Participating Firms Benchmark BIA Financial JackMyers Media Business Report JP Morgan Magna SNLKagan Veronis Suhler Stevenson Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
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Benchmark Local Spot+5.0 Nat’l Spot+6.0 Network+4.0 Broadcast Online+7.0 Broadcast Wireless na (% Change) 2010
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BIA Financial Local Spot+3.0 Nat’l Spot+2.0 Network-7.0 Nat’l Synd.-5.0 Network Cable-1.0 Local Cable-2.0 Broadcast Online+20.0 Broadcast Wireless+25.0 (% Change) 2010
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JackMyers Media Business Report Local Spot-2.0 Nat’l Spot+0.5 Network-8.0 Syndication-2.0 Network Cable-0.5 Local Cable+12.0 Broadcast Online+7.0 Broadcast Wireless+12.0 (% Change) 2010
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JP Morgan Local Spot-2.0 Nat’l Spot+1.0 (% Change) 2010
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Magna Spot+13.3 Network-0.9 Syndication-8.5 Network Cable+3.0 Local Cable+18.7 Broadcast Online+3.6 Broadcast Wirelessna (% Change) 2010
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SNLKagan Local Spot+5.0 Nat’l Spot+6.0 (% Change) 2010
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Veronis Suhler Stevenson Local Spot+3.3 Nat’l Spot+6.6 Network-4.6 Syndication+4.5 Network Cable+7.2 Spot Cable+5.4 Broadcast Online+7.8 Broadcast Wireless+0.2 (% Change) 2010
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Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Local Spot+5.0 Nat’l Spot+10.0 Network-2.0 Syndication+1.0 Network Cable+3.0 Local Cable+4.0 Broadcast Online+5.0 Broadcast Wirelessna (% Change) 2010
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Industry Analysts Estimates 2010 – Local Spot Local Spot Ranges % Change
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Industry Analysts Estimates 2010 – Nat’l Spot National Spot Ranges % Change
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Local Spot+2.5 Nat’l Spot+4.6 Network-3.1 Syndication-2.0 Network Cable+2.3 Local Cable+7.6 Broadcast Online+8.4 Broadcast Wireless+12.4 Summary of the Industry Expert Forecasts Summary of the Industry Expert Forecasts (% Change) 2010
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TV Rep Survey for 2010 TV Rep Survey for 2010
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National Spot+15.8 National Online+11.3 National Wireless+20.0 9 Participants TV Rep Survey (% Change) 2010
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2010 Rep Survey Mean +15.8% % Change
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And Now TVB’s Forecast for 2010
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Market Influences – 2010 Confidence/Consumer Activity… Jobs Real Estate Financial Markets/Credit
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Market Influences – 2010 Overall ad spending levels “Established”/”Emerging” balance Network vs. Spot…geography vs. behavioral Key categories: Auto Political
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Market Influences – 2010 Technology and consumer adoption (DVR; online video; mobile web) IT and e-Biz applications Social media marketing
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Borrell Projection – Local Broadcast Online Source: Borrell Associates, Sept. 2009 Local Broadcast TV Interactive Revenues
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TVB Forecast 2010 Local Spot+1 to +3 Nat’l Spot+6 to +12 Total Spot+3.6 to +6.1 Station Websites+18.0 Station Mobile+50.0 (% Change)
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Base Business Comparison 2005 -1.2% 479-5.5% 20062.4% 1,9808.5% 2007-1.8% 466-7.4% 2008-11.1% 1,547-6.5% 2009(e)-15.8%885-18.1% 2010(e)1.1% 1,5004.9% Total BasePOL $(Base + Political) Source: CMAG, TVB (% Change) At Mid-Point of Forecast Range
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2010 % of Total Local Station Revenue Model (Dollars in millions) Television Advertising – Primary Channel89.7 Digital Sub-Channels0.9 Internet 4.4 Mobile 0.2 Retransmission Consent 4.8 Total Local Station Revenue100.0 Source: 7 Broadcast Groups 2011 % of Total 87.2 1.5 5.3 0.7 5.3 100.0
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