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Y-T-D 2009 Spot Revenue Analysis 1st Q ’09 -25.2-27.9 2nd Q ’09 -24.5-25.6 1st H ’09-24.9-26.7 July ’09-20.3-22.9 Y-T-D-24.3-26.2 TVB Estimates GTSS Spot.

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Presentation on theme: "Y-T-D 2009 Spot Revenue Analysis 1st Q ’09 -25.2-27.9 2nd Q ’09 -24.5-25.6 1st H ’09-24.9-26.7 July ’09-20.3-22.9 Y-T-D-24.3-26.2 TVB Estimates GTSS Spot."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Y-T-D 2009 Spot Revenue Analysis 1st Q ’09 -25.2-27.9 2nd Q ’09 -24.5-25.6 1st H ’09-24.9-26.7 July ’09-20.3-22.9 Y-T-D-24.3-26.2 TVB Estimates GTSS Spot TV % ChangeBaseTotal

3 Automotive – Fctry, Dlr Assn & Dlrs-50.3 Quick Serve Restaurants-12.8 Furniture Stores-26.4 Legal Services-3.4 Wireless Telecom Providers+2.5 Bundled Telecom Products/Svcs-21.0 Hospitals, Clinics & Medical Centers-13.0 Automobile Insurance-28.7 Cable TV Providers & Systems+34.3 Colleges & Universities+3.4 1st Half 2009 Category Analysis Source: TNS Media Intelligence % Change Top 10 Spot Categories2009/2008

4 Automotive Ad Spending 1st H 2009 Chrysler-Cerberus277,022535,906-48.3 Ford702,153842,518-16.7 General Motors886,1941,365,644-35.1 Subtotal Big 31,865,3682,744,067-32.0 BMW88,998124,820-28.7 Daimler140,379173,914-19.3 Honda433,153534,813-19.0 Hyundai/KIA343,890398,719-13.8 Isuzu45,981425-89.2 Mazda114,625176,283-35.0 Mitsubishi23,56272,596-67.5 Nissan290,004475,551-39.0 Subaru50,87563,958-20.5 Toyota621,742908,260-31.5 Volkswagen215,601197,3619.2 Subtotal All Other2,322,8763,126,700-25.7 Grand Total4,188,2445,870,766-28.7 Overall $Overall $% Parent Co.1 st H 20091 st H 2008Ch. Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 9/09

5 Automotive Spot TV $ 1st H 2009 Chrysler-Cerberus96,904203,564-52.4 Ford141,182245,365-42.5 General Motors68,122229,237-70.3 Subtotal Big 3306,208678,166-54.8 BMW16,25526,950-39.7 Daimler8,47243,380-80.5 Honda130,160177,104-26.5 Hyundai/KIA78,348106,662-26.5 Isuzu21130-83.8 Mazda11,30755,285-79.5 Mitsubishi2,42718,373-86.8 Nissan45,056139,930-67.8 Subaru8,45910,860-22.1 Toyota153,705319,425-51.9 Volkswagen47,32048,743-2.9 Subtotal All Other501,530946,843 -47.0 Grand Total807,7391,625,009 -50.3 1 st H 20091 st H 2008 Spot TV $Spot TV $% Parent Co.($000)($000)Ch. Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 9/09

6 Automotive Spot TV Share 1st H 2009 Chrysler-Cerberus35.037.7 Ford20.128.4 General Motors7.716.6 Subtotal Big 316.424.3 BMW18.321.4 Daimler6.025.0 Honda30.032.6 Hyundai/KIA22.826.7 Isuzu45.919.9 Mazda9.931.3 Mitsubishi10.324.4 Nissan15.529.2 Subaru16.617.0 Toyota24.734.8 Volkswagen21.923.9 Subtotal All Other21.630.3 Grand Total 19.327.7 1 st H 20091 st H 2008Spot TV Parent Co. % Share% Share Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 9/09

7 Automotive Spot TV Share 200230.4 200328.6 200428.6 200527.2 200631.1 200730.2 200828.8 1 st H 200827.7 1 st H 200919.3 Automotive Ad Spending forSpot TV Year ofShare Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 9/09

8 Base Business Analysis Year % Change 2001-15.6 20028.7 20030.6 20044.6 2005-1.2 20062.4 2007-1.8 2008-11.1 Thru July 2009-24.3

9 2008/2009 Spot TV $ Political Analysis 1 st Half 407.2170.6-236.6-58.1 2 nd Half 1,139.8714.4-425.4-37.3 Total 1,547.0885.0-662.0-42.8 Source: CMAG Dollars (M)20082009(e)$ Change% Change

10 Now The Year Ahead What Can We Expect?

11 Here’s What the Industry Analysts Are Saying About 2010 Here’s What the Industry Analysts Are Saying About 2010

12 Participating Firms Benchmark BIA Financial JackMyers Media Business Report JP Morgan Magna SNLKagan Veronis Suhler Stevenson Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

13 Benchmark Local Spot+5.0 Nat’l Spot+6.0 Network+4.0 Broadcast Online+7.0 Broadcast Wireless na (% Change) 2010

14 BIA Financial Local Spot+3.0 Nat’l Spot+2.0 Network-7.0 Nat’l Synd.-5.0 Network Cable-1.0 Local Cable-2.0 Broadcast Online+20.0 Broadcast Wireless+25.0 (% Change) 2010

15 JackMyers Media Business Report Local Spot-2.0 Nat’l Spot+0.5 Network-8.0 Syndication-2.0 Network Cable-0.5 Local Cable+12.0 Broadcast Online+7.0 Broadcast Wireless+12.0 (% Change) 2010

16 JP Morgan Local Spot-2.0 Nat’l Spot+1.0 (% Change) 2010

17 Magna Spot+13.3 Network-0.9 Syndication-8.5 Network Cable+3.0 Local Cable+18.7 Broadcast Online+3.6 Broadcast Wirelessna (% Change) 2010

18 SNLKagan Local Spot+5.0 Nat’l Spot+6.0 (% Change) 2010

19 Veronis Suhler Stevenson Local Spot+3.3 Nat’l Spot+6.6 Network-4.6 Syndication+4.5 Network Cable+7.2 Spot Cable+5.4 Broadcast Online+7.8 Broadcast Wireless+0.2 (% Change) 2010

20 Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Local Spot+5.0 Nat’l Spot+10.0 Network-2.0 Syndication+1.0 Network Cable+3.0 Local Cable+4.0 Broadcast Online+5.0 Broadcast Wirelessna (% Change) 2010

21 Industry Analysts Estimates 2010 – Local Spot Local Spot Ranges % Change

22 Industry Analysts Estimates 2010 – Nat’l Spot National Spot Ranges % Change

23 Local Spot+2.5 Nat’l Spot+4.6 Network-3.1 Syndication-2.0 Network Cable+2.3 Local Cable+7.6 Broadcast Online+8.4 Broadcast Wireless+12.4 Summary of the Industry Expert Forecasts Summary of the Industry Expert Forecasts (% Change) 2010

24 TV Rep Survey for 2010 TV Rep Survey for 2010

25 National Spot+15.8 National Online+11.3 National Wireless+20.0 9 Participants TV Rep Survey (% Change) 2010

26 2010 Rep Survey Mean +15.8% % Change

27 And Now TVB’s Forecast for 2010

28 Market Influences – 2010 Confidence/Consumer Activity…  Jobs  Real Estate  Financial Markets/Credit

29 Market Influences – 2010 Overall ad spending levels “Established”/”Emerging” balance Network vs. Spot…geography vs. behavioral Key categories:  Auto  Political

30 Market Influences – 2010 Technology and consumer adoption (DVR; online video; mobile web) IT and e-Biz applications Social media marketing

31 Borrell Projection – Local Broadcast Online Source: Borrell Associates, Sept. 2009 Local Broadcast TV Interactive Revenues

32 TVB Forecast 2010 Local Spot+1 to +3 Nat’l Spot+6 to +12 Total Spot+3.6 to +6.1 Station Websites+18.0 Station Mobile+50.0 (% Change)

33 Base Business Comparison 2005 -1.2% 479-5.5% 20062.4% 1,9808.5% 2007-1.8% 466-7.4% 2008-11.1% 1,547-6.5% 2009(e)-15.8%885-18.1% 2010(e)1.1% 1,5004.9% Total BasePOL $(Base + Political) Source: CMAG, TVB (% Change) At Mid-Point of Forecast Range

34 2010 % of Total Local Station Revenue Model (Dollars in millions) Television Advertising – Primary Channel89.7 Digital Sub-Channels0.9 Internet 4.4 Mobile 0.2 Retransmission Consent 4.8 Total Local Station Revenue100.0 Source: 7 Broadcast Groups 2011 % of Total 87.2 1.5 5.3 0.7 5.3 100.0

35 Thank You for Joining Us Today. Go to www.tvb.org for presentations

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