1. TIGGE and operational EPS 経田 正幸 KYOUDA Masayuki Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency 9 th THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE Working Group meeting Geneva, WMO Headquarters 31 August – 2 September, 2011

2. Contents Outline of JMA operational Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) Update of operational EPS – JMA One-week EPS – JMA Typhoon EPS Distribution of operational EPS output – TIGGE – SWFDP WMO/CBS Lead Centre of EPS verification 2

3. Outline of JMA Operational EPS 3

4. JMA operational EPS One-week EPSTyphoon EPS Objectives One-week probabilistic forecast Typhoon forecast EPS model and its integration Forecast DomainThe whole Globe by using JMA’s AGCM, “GSM” Horizontal ResolutionT L 319 (~60km) Vertical Levels60 Levels, up to 0.1 hPa Forecast Hours216 hours (12UTC) 132 hours(00,06,12,18) only when Tropical Cyclones of TS/STS/TY intensity are present or are expected to appear in the RSMC Tokyo –Typhoon Centre’s area of responsibility Ensemble Settings Member 1 control run and 50 perturbed runs 1 control run and 10 perturbed runs Initial perturbation SV method, 3 target areas (NH,TR,SH) SV method, RSMC target (Fixed) and Max. 3 Typhoon Target (Movable) Model ensembleStochastic Physics 4 More detailed information is available at the JMA part of the latest “WMO Technical Progress Report on GDPSF and NWP Research” and the standardized EPS documentation in Excel spreadsheet format at http://tigge.ecmwf.int/models.htmlhttp://tigge.ecmwf.int/models.html

5. You know the One-week EPS!!! 5 Spaghetti diagrams viewing each EPS data of all TIGGE partners (Original image source : Mio-san’s TIGGE page http://tparc.mri- jma.go.jp/TIGGE/index.html)http://tparc.mri- jma.go.jp/TIGGE/index.html The EPS data delivery to TIGGE started in October 2006. Thanks to David-san, the specification is available at http://tigge.ecmwf.int/mod els.html. http://tigge.ecmwf.int/mod els.html

6. You also know the Typhoon EPS!!! 6 Ensemble TC tracks viewing each Cyclone XML file (Original image source : MRI of JMA page http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/cyclone/index.php) Up to 216 hours updated only once a day Up to 132 hours updated every 6 hours

7. Update of JMA Operational EPS 7

8. Recent updates of JMA One-week EPS Introduction of the stochastic perturbation of physics tendency as a model ensemble technique in December 2010 Yonehara, H. and M. Ujiie, 2011: A Stochastic physics scheme for model uncertainties in the JMA one-week Ensemble Prediction System., CAS/JSC WGNE Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling., 41, Section 06, 09-10 –Representation of model uncertainties Reduced amplitude of the initial perturbation (IP) and IP expansion into the southern hemisphere in March 2011 –Contribution to appropriate ensemble spread –Improvement of the forecast skill You can trace its history with the standardized EPS documentation in Excel spreadsheet format at http://tigge.ecmwf.int/models.html.http://tigge.ecmwf.int/models.html 8

9. Impact of IP amplitude reducing 9 Time evolution of the monthly average of ensemble-mean’s error (plotting symbol is filled circle: ●) and ensemble spread (circle: ○) for 500hPa geopotential height for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. -Left and right panels show January 2009 and September 2009, respectively. -CNTL(orange and red lines) and TEST(yellowgreen and green lines) are for the previous and current system, respectively.

10. Time evolution of the MAM-averaged ACC (anomaly correlation coefficient) of ensemble-mean for 500hPa geopotential height from 2003 to 2011 (Original image source : WMO/CBS Lead Centre on verification of EPS website) -Color of lines separates the verification period. -Top and bottom panels show the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere, respectively. -Left and right panels are based on JMA’s and ECMWF’s EPS verification reports, respectively. ECMWF EPS It is planned to extend the forecast range up to 17 days during the next computing period. ECMWF EPS JMA EPS ACC over NH ACC over SH Diagnosis of EPS improvement 10 9 days 10 days, the 2011 ACC reaches 0.60 9 days, the 2011 ACC reaches 0.60 8 days IP installed in March 2011 Comparison with past skill or another skill is helpful to review performance.

11. Recent updates of JMA Typhoon EPS Revisions of the singular vector (SV) method, a generator of initial perturbation, in May 2010 – A group of SV spatial target areas around the central positions of TC forecasts is set as circular region – in contrast to the previous rectangular-area setting. – The amplitude of the perturbation is normalized using the moist total energy value – in contrast to the previous normalization using the maximum meridional or zonal wind speed. Introduction of the stochastic perturbation of physics tendency as a model ensemble technique in December 2010 –A near-neutral impact in the TC track forecast 11

12. Distribution of Operational EPS Output 12

13. JMA EPS data to TIGGE Incorrect value Correct value Incorrect ‘Land-sea mask’ values – Although the land-sea mask in JMA EPS has not changed, an error in output processing resulted in only incorrect ‘land-sea mask’ data from 16 December 2010 to 28 March 2011. – Putting the announcement on both “News” of TIGGE site @ECMWF and “tiggeusers” mailing list in February 2011 There is no inquiry for its announcement. Distribution scheme – still old type … http-get by ECMWF New data distribution – ECMWF started adding on 3 rd August 2011 to the TIGGE database You can check it at http://tigge.ecmwf.int/tigge/d/tigge_history/. – Providing analysis (T+0) field initialized at 00UTC Following Action 8.6.1 of 8 th GIFS TIGGE WG meeting report 13

14. SWFDP in SOUTHEAST ASIA Participating Centres – Global Centres : CMA, JMA, KMA, and ECMWF – Regional Centres : Viet Nam (Regional Forecast Support Centre), RSMC Tokyo, RSMC New Delhi (tropical cyclone forecasting support), and HKO (training and technical support) – NMCs : Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., Thailand, and Viet Nam 14 The red-colored rectangle is the target domain for SWFDP-SeA. Field phase – Period : One-year period from 2012 to 2013 – Target Severe Weather – Tropical cyclone both from the South China Sea and from the Bay of Bengal – Heavy rain

15. JMA webpage for WMO/CBS SWFDP 15 URL: http://ddb.kishou.go.jp /swfdp/ http://ddb.kishou.go.jp /swfdp/ Three-type products, including EPS product, for RA V are now available. Deterministic Forecast from Global Model Probabilistic Forecast from Global medium- range EPS MTSAT Product Plan Providing the similar products for SWFDP-SeA.

16. WMO/CBS Lead Centre on Verification of EPS 16

17. Lead Centre on Verification of EPS The Japan Meteorological Agency, as the Lead Centre on Verification of EPS, promotes both exchanging of EPS verification reports and presenting skill of EPS. JMA has been operating two Internet sites since January 2004. – FTP site ( ftp://ftpepsv.kishou.go.jp ) for the EPS producing centres to upload for gathering the statistic data of their EPS verification – Web site ( http://epsv.kishou.go.jp/EPSv/ ) for the NMHSs of WMO Members to view EPS verification reports for a better use of EPS products.http://epsv.kishou.go.jp/EPSv/ 17

18. Exchange of EPS verification reports - current status - Internet FTP site (password protected) CMA CMC CPTEC ECMWF JMA KMA Lead Centre (JMA) Publishing Web site http://epsv.kishou.go.jp/EPSv/ NMHSs of WMO Members Access to the EPS verification reports Monthly upload RUMS UKMO BOM MF (as of Aug. 2011) Registered centres NCEP 18

19. Access to EPS verification reports To Click a link “*** tables” leads to get any EPS verification reports. To Click a centre name leads to display figures visualized from its EPS reports. To Click the link “Reported status” leads to see the list of all reported elements. 19

20. Exchange scheme Original verification statistics – are replicated at the Web site and available to confirm at least in a day after the registered centre puts it on the FTP site Web site – Shows the original verification statistics, their update information, and their visualized figures – Makes it possible to diagnose the skill of EPS of each EPS producing centre through comparison with those of other EPSs – Contributes to improvement of the performance of each EPS. 20

21. Availability The number of verification reports remains limited – JMA’s plan Start reporting new table, CRPS table, in the next few months – CMA’s plan Start reporting its reliability table by the end of 2011 – RUMS’s plan Start reporting other variables and tables by November 2011 – BOM, CMC, MF, NCEP and UKMO Be expected to submit their reports as soon as possible 21

22. Thank you for your kind attention. 22