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Common Reference Scenarios: A Synthesis of National-level Economic and Biophysical Model Results Presented at Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling.

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Presentation on theme: "Common Reference Scenarios: A Synthesis of National-level Economic and Biophysical Model Results Presented at Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling."— Presentation transcript:

1 Common Reference Scenarios: A Synthesis of National-level Economic and Biophysical Model Results Presented at Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum Workshop Shepherdstown, WV October 1, 2001 Presented by Brian C. Murray P.O. Box 12194 · 3040 Cornwallis Road · Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 Phone: 919-541-6468 · Fax: 919-541-6683 · bcm@rti.org · www.rti.org

2 Objectives n Obtain national-level estimates of GHG mitigation in Forest and Agriculture sectors l Baseline/Business-as-Usual (BAU) l With Incentives n Demonstrate commonalities and differences across model types l Biophysical v Economic l Economic u Sectoral vs Multi-sector u Static v Dynamic u National vs Global

3 Models

4 Scenario Features n Prices: $ 0, $3-27 per ton, CO 2 n Activities: Forestry, Agriculture, Land Use Change (level of detail at discretion of modelers) n Time Horizon: 2000-2100 n Output l GHGs: CO 2, N 2 O, CH 4 (all in CO 2 equiv) l Land Use Change l Commodity Market Effects l Welfare Costs

5 Biophysical Models: Business-As-Usual Sequestration

6 FORCARB MM tons/year CO 2

7 FORCARB (2)

8 IPCC and Century: BAU Sequestration Rates for Agriculture

9 Economic Models

10 BAU Comparison for Cropland Carbon: Biophysical v Economic Models

11 BAU Comparison for Forestland: Biophysical v Economic

12 GHG Mitigation Supply Functions

13 USMP/WRI

14 USMP WRI (2)

15 USMP/ERS

16 ASMGHG

17 ASMGHG (2)

18 ASMGHG (3)

19 FASOM-GHG

20 FASOM-GHG (2)

21 FASOM-GHG (3)

22 Aggregate Supply Function Comparison

23 CGE/Forest Sector: Alavalapati and Wong

24 Land Use Change Estimates

25 Land Use : USMP/WRI

26 Land Use: USMP/ERS

27 Land Use: ASM-GHG

28 Land Use: FASOM-GHG

29 Land Use: FASOM-GHG (2)

30 Land Use: Model Comparison

31 Commodity Prices

32 Commodity Prices: USMP/WRI

33 Commodity Prices: ASMGHG

34 Commodity Prices: FASOM-GHG

35 Timber Prices over Time: FASOM-GHG

36 Observation Expanding the Scope of CO2 related activities covered has a greater impact on Ag sector mitigation than expanding non-C02 GHGs covered

37 Observation (2) Modeling Forestry-Ag feedback is critical, especially in estimates of Land Use Change l Overestimate afforestation if we ignore rent- enhancing Ag management responses to CO 2 prices l Underestimate afforestation if we ignore rent- enhancing forest management responses to CO 2 prices (especially at low prices)

38 Observation (3) More temporal dynamics are needed n Forestry - absolutely essential n Saturation and Permanence issues in both sectors n Ability to assess policies aimed at specific future time periods (re: 2008-2012)

39 Where are the Opportunities ?

40 Breakout Groups

41 Breakout Group Activities n Meet when opportunities arise n Use Questions/Issues raised in handout as a guide to discussions l Right theme ? l Assess current models/results l Future modeling directions l Study group topics n Report back to the Plenary on Day 3

42 Breakout Groups

43

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