1. Mike McMahon Senior Hydro-meteorologist Flood Forecasting – A Whole New Level of Guidance 2012 ASFPM Annual Conference – San Antonio, TX

2. The Right Information at the Right Time  Forecasting that targets your concerns  A forecast that allows you to be proactive rather than reactive It is all about getting what you want, when you want it, and where you want it for!

3. Flood Forecasting – 2012  Technological Advancements – Doppler Radar, Dual Pol Doppler, improved atmospheric model initialization, enhanced remote sensing  Methodological advancements – HMT, improved atmospheric modeling, improved skill in QPF, and many more 2012 ASFPM Annual Conference – San Antonio, TX

4. Public vs Private Weather Services NOAA/NWS are responsible for the lives and livelihoods of 300 million people. A private sector meteorologist is there specifically for the needs of an individual agency.  Dedication  Communication  Interpretation  Customization

5. Communication Decision support is only valuable if it is there when you need it.

6. Interpretation

7. Customization Forecasts are for one agency, one basin, and one meteorological parameter (rainfall).

8. 2012 ASFPM Annual Conference – San Antonio, TX A Client Specific Three-tiered Approach 1. QPF information – A look at what will come 2. Real-time/near real-time information – A look at what is occurring or has just occurred 3. Gage Information and verification – A look at rainfall that is turning into streamflow

9. What can you do with an accurate QPF?  Mitigation, mitigation, mitigation  Hydrologic model input InfoWorks/FloodWorks, HEC- RAS, HEC-HMS, etc. - Can be used for design, planning and mitigation  Efficient field staffing – the where and the when Full 2D for overland flow area

10. What can you do with real-time or near real- time Doppler radar data and STP maps?  Near real-time flow yields a near real-time vulnerability assessment  Public works crews can be targeted in the field

11. What can you do with real-time gage information?  Verification  Calibration  Confirmation

12. Product Delivery  Web-based  ArcGIS Online or Google platforms – model ready  Customized interface for each user and each user need  The decision support that you need in a format that that requires minimal interpretation  Flood mitigation on any scale 2012 ASFPM Annual Conference – San Antonio, TX

13. Cost to benefit ratio The number of events that would need to be mitigated to fund this type of guidance for 5-10 years. 1

14. Questions? Anyone who says sunshine brings happiness has never danced in the rain” - Anonymous