1. Session 5: Panel Discussion Observations Prediction systems Integration of CanSISE Research Deliverable 1 Report

2. Issues and opportunities with regards to the use of observations We are in a good position to characterize the current observed state of the cryosphere relative to the historical record (IPCC AR5; SWIPA; Arctic Report Card etc.) Observing Gaps: Snowfall (particularly high latitude/high elevation) High resolution SWE (particularly relevant to alpine snow) Snow albedo (particularly at low solar zenith angle) Sea ice thickness Snow on sea ice Sea ice motion, deformation etc. **Observational uncertainties are a limiting factor for modeling applications in some regions (central Arctic); model resolution is the limiting factor in other regions (Canadian Arctic Archipelago)**

3. Issues and opportunities with regards to the use of observations Challenges: How to use ‘snapshot’ datasets (in both space and time) for modeling applications? Establishing standard observational data records with quantified uncertainty Removing bias and quantifying uncertainty for data assimilation applications Ensuring continuity in spaceborne measurements and surface networks Improved dissemination of climate station observations Future opportunities: New satellite missions: Sentinel, SMAP; SWOT, ICESat-2, GRACE-II CHARS; SAON; Cryo-Net ESA/GCW Snow dataset intercomparison project; CliC ‘Grand Challenges’

4. Where to go with the EC models? Analysis Sea ice and snow errors (GF, CD) Time of emergence (FZ, CD) Policy metrics, e.g. frost days (FZ) NAO predictability (DS) AMO & SPG variability and signal (DS, JF) Sea ice loss & circulation (DS, JK, JF) Large ensembles (PK) Snow Albedo Feedback analyses (CF)

5. Development Sea ice thickness initialization (CH, BM, MS) Snow & land surface initialization (AB, CD) 8°C Arctic cold bias in CanSIPS (BM, PK) Sea ice model plans (JS, PK) Black carbon impacts (JF, KvS, CF) Resolved stratosphere (DS) Sea ice lead heat flux (BT)

6. Integration of CanSISE Research

7. Deliverable 1: Report Proposed title was “Assessment of S/SI Biases, Projections, and Predictions in the Canadian GCMs” Revised title: “Overview S/SI in EC’s Prediction Systems: Opportunities for CanSISE” Sections: –Arctic temperature & S/SI prediction in CanESM, CanSIPS, CaLDAS/MRD –State of the art observational comparisons. –Current Efforts across CanSISE to feed into them. –Statements on current model performance –Impacts & partnerships: PCIC, CIS –Statements on future development track and howCanSISE can contribute. Format: CMOS Bulletin Article? A couple of figures?