1. Vulnerability of Food Systems GECAFS approach
Polly Ericksen
GECAFS Science Officer
17 May 2006

2. GECAFS Vision
A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to environmental stress.
POLICY explicit!!

3. Food Security
exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.
(definition from the World Food Summit)
is determined by multiple factors.

4. Components of Food Security
& Key Elements
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD
ACCESS
Nutritional Value
Social Value
Food Safety
Affordability
Allocation
Preference
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
Discuss each aspect and issues
Production
Distribution
Exchange

5. Food security is a function of multiple stresses7 12
Misselhorn 2005 Global Environmental Change

6. Processing & packaging food Distribution & retailing food
Generally food systems comprise a number of human activities involved in…..
Producing food
Processing & packaging food
Distribution & retailing food
Consuming food

7. Trends / transformations in food systems
On the production side: yield growth, technology advances and concentration, smallholder vs large farms, env. concerns
Processing, packing and distribution: long, involved food chains, standardization, concentration and globalization
Consumption: price declines, dietary transition, urbanization, CNCDs, etc.

8. Trends in Food Systems “Traditional” Food Systems
“Modern” Food Systems
Employment in food sector
In production of raw commodities
In food manufacturing and retail
Supply Chain
Short
Long with many food miles and lots of nodes
Typical food consumed
Basic staples
Processed food with a brand name; More animal products
Purchased food bought from
Small, local shop or market
Large supermarket chain
Nutritional issues
Under-nutrition
Chronic dietary diseases
Main source of national food shocks
Poor rains; production shocks
International price and trade problems
Main source of household food shocks
Income shocks leading to food poverty
Environmental concerns
Soil degradation, land clearing
Nutrient loading, chemical runoff, water demands, energy requirements
Source: Adapted from Maxwell and Slater, 2004.

9. “Global” Environmental Change
Changes in the biogeophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities
For example changes in:
Land cover & soils
Atmospheric composition
Climate variability & means
Water availability & quality
Nitrogen availability & cycling
Biodiversity
Sea currents & salinity
Sea level

10. Why a “systems” approach?
Lends a generic view – food systems underpin food security but in multiple ways
Link multiple activities to multiple outcomes
Incorporate dynamism and feedbacks
Identify key processes in spite of the complexity
Allow for structure (determinism) and agency

11. GEC – Food System Interactions
TWO WAY INTERACTIONS

12. Food System ACTIVITIES Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to:
Food Systems Research
integrates Food System Activities and Outcomes
Food System ACTIVITIES
Producing food: natural resources, inputs, technology
Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, consumer demand
Distributing & retailing food: marketing, advertising, trade
Consuming food: preparation, consumption
Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to:
Social Welfare
Income
Employment
Wealth
Social & political capital
Human capital
Infrastructure
Peace
Insurance
Food Security
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD
ACCESS
Affordability
Allocation
Preference
Nutritional Value
Social Value
Food Safety
AVAILABILITY
Production
Distribution
Exchange
Environmental Security / Natural Capital
Ecosystems stocks, flows
Ecosystem services
Access to natural capital
VALUES
Multiple outcomes
Source: Ericksen, P. (2006) Conceptualizing Food Systems for GEC Research (in prep for Food Policy)

13. Evaluating affordability of food
Characteristics of food security outcome for Site X
Major Determinants of food security outcome
Linked to FS Activity? Or Other Outcome?
Staple grains are cheap if imported; expensive if local.
Costs of local production higher than foreign.
Determined primarily by the activities under Producing.
Fruits and vegetables cheap and available in rural areas.
Increasing numbers of farmers moving into horticulture so is surplus.
Fish and beef are luxury foods. Chicken is every day food in urban areas.
Fish increasingly scarce because waters over-fished.
Beef is for the export market.
Poultry is a new growth sector and so is available everywhere. Processing centered near urban areas.
Incomes differences between urban and rural areas important (social welfare).
Aquatic systems reaching their threshold (natural capital).
Beef and chicken price and availability determined by Producing, Processing and Retailing.
Identification of intervention points

14. Tradeoffs among outcomes for two different food systems
Food available from local production
Food available from local production
Income
Fresh water for aquatic systems
Nutrient stocks in soils
Food affordable
Income
Biodiversity
Biodiversity
Fresh water for aquatic systems
Third dimension is that to ensure food security, need to look at thresholds of combinations of income, availability and affordabilty.
Nutrient stocks in soils
Food affordable
(after de Fries et al 2005)

15. Vulnerability
Vulnerability implies HARM or a negative consequence from which is difficult to recover
Involves social values
Function of exposure to hazards, sensitivity AND social dimensions of coping capacity (internal and external)
Coping capacity includes access to assets, diversity of options, institutional, policy and market structures
Vulnerability is dynamic and differential

16. Global environmental change
Adds to existing stresses
Has previously been addressed in terms of single impacts, primarily production
Has various interactions with food systems (activities and outcomes)
Production to consumption

17. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC)
Change in type, frequency & magnitude of environmental threats
Capacity to cope with &/or recover from GEC
FOOD SYSTEM
SECURITY / VULNERABILITY
Exposure
to GEC
GECAFS view of vulnerability – function of adaptive capacity and resilience
SOCIETAL CHANGE
Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc.

18. Adaptive capacity– social
Social = ability or capacity or opportunity to modify processes or characteristics so as to better cope with existing or anticipated external stresses
Function of assets
Access to them
Ability to take action/ change behavior

19. Adaptive capacity- ecological
Ecological = resilience
How much shock system can take without change
Functional attributes
Ability to self-organize
Ability to adapt and learn
Often determined by slow variables, such as reservoirs of nutrients, ecosystem diversity or heterogeneity

20. Vulnerability of food systems
Any component can be vulnerable
Multiple expressions
Arises through activities/ processes
May be “masked” if we only look at outcomes
Is fundamentally about systems NOT delivering food security in an equitable and sustainable manner
Feedbacks link today to the future

21. Potential determinants food system vulnerability
Low diversity in assets or entitlements
Inequity in access to resources and capacity to take action
Institutional weaknesses/ inflexible structures
Market failures
Distance between production and consumption
Cross-scale interactions leading to surprise
Policy failures

22. Integrating FS & Vulnerability Research Determinant characteristics
examples for food utilisation & water availability
Key determinant
Determinant characteristics
Sensitivity
to water availability
Vulnerability
NUTRITIONAL VALUE
Food diversity
Rice, lentil, milk
Cows need four months rain to produce milk
High: Mild drought makes milk scarce as no dairy market
Primary protein
Lentils
Lentils need two months rain
Low: Severe drought makes lentils scarce but buffered by market
SOCIAL VALUE
Community celebrations & cohesion
Special foods for key celebrations, e.g. onset of monsoon
Increased variability of monsoon disrupts and diminishes role of celebrations
Medium: Significance of celebration foods declines leading to reduced social cohesion
Kinship / Etiquette
Luxury foods (e.g. eggs) for guests NA
FOOD SAFTEY
Storage conditions
Low-quality, water-pervious baskets
Baskets can get damp / flood
High: Toxic build-up (e.g. aflotoxins) in stored food
Expand the earlier matrices to include vulnerability.

23. Integrating FS & Vulnerability Research
in the IGP: example for Nutritional Value component of Food Utilisation
Determinant: food diversity
milk
Determinant: principal protein
lentil
GEC Issue
Increased incidence of drought
GEC Issue
Increased incidence of drought
FS VULNERABILITY RE FOOD DIVERSITY
HIGH
Exp. to
GEC
FS VULNERABILITY RE PRINCIPAL PROTEIN
LOW
Exp. to
GEC
Cap. to cope
Cap. to cope
Socec. Issue
Weak dairy market
Socec. Issue
Strong lentil market
Source: Multi-authored analysis of IGP food system vulnerability to GEC. GECAFS Report. In prep.

24. What about scale? It influences who / what is vulnerable
Institutions, governance and policies vary with/ depend upon it
Cross-scale interactions create heterogeneity and SURPRISE (and conflict)
Tradeoffs fundamentally are across space and time
Subsidies, gains versus costs