1. Crisis “Management”: A Way Forward David S. Alberts dalberts@ida.org presented to Crisis Management 3.0: Social Media and Governance in Times of Transition Wilson Center Science and Technology Innovation Program February 16, 2012

2. Agenda Nature of 21 st Century Crises Implications for Crisis “Management” Research Results Way Forward Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012

3. 3 3 Complex Endeavor Complexity of ‘Self’ Complexity of the Task and Environment = + 21st Century Crises are Complex Endeavors Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012

4. Complexity of Task and Environment 4 The success of 21 st Century Missions requires a multi-dimensional effects space - political, social, economic, military The complexity of the mission is a result of the interactions between and among the effects, particularly across dimensions, and the uncertainties associated with a cascading effects chain. Humanitarian Assistance Counter Terrorism Stability Operations Disaster Relief Peace Keeping Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012

5. 5 Self = A large number of heterogeneous, independent entities that differ significantly with respect to: Culture, values and norms; Laws, policies, rules, and regulations; Practices and processes; Levels of trust; Language; Information and communications capabilities; Approach to organization and management. The complexity of ‘Self’ comes from the nature of the interactions between and among the participating entities and the dynamics of the situation that affect entity willingness, constraints, perceptions, and capabilities. Complexity of Self Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012

6. 6 Challenges to Basic Assumptions 6 There will not be a unified chain of command. Entities will each have their own intent. The situation will be, in part, unfamiliar to all entities. There will be multiple planning processes. Critical information and expertise necessary to understand the situation will be non-organic. Actions, to be effective, will require developing synergies between and among entity actions. Complex Endeavors require new approaches to “management” to achieve Collective Focus and Convergence Crisis Management Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012

7. 7 Challenges to Basic Assumptions Increased complexity will make the unexpected occur with greatly frequency The effective lives of plans will be shorter – they may expire within the planning cycle. Critical information and expertise necessary to understand the situation will not be available Traditional approaches to decision making under uncertainty will be less applicable Ability to Understand The most appropriate response to increased complexity and the associated increases in uncertainty and risk is increasing Agility Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012

8. Approach Space allocation of decision rights to the collective patterns of interaction among entities distribution of information among entities none tightly constrained unconstrained broad none broad Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012

9. Approach Space allocation of decision rights to the collective patterns of interaction among entities distribution of information among entities none tightly constrained unconstrained broad none broad Hierarchy Edge Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012

10. Approach Space 10 Edge Collaborative Coordinated De-Conflicted Conflicted allocation of decision rights to the collective patterns of interaction among entities distribution of information among entities none tightly constrained unconstrained broad none Source: NATO NEC2 Maturity Model Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012

11. Agenda Nature of 21 st Century Challenges Implications for Crisis “Management” Research Results Way Forward Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012

12. Research Results More network-enabled more Shared Awareness, but greater information flows and transactions More transactions greater workloads greater queues increased delays reduced effectiveness Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012

13. Research Results More network-enabled more Shared Awareness, but greater Information flows and transactions More transactions greater workloads greater queues increased delays reduced effectiveness Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012 Need to strike a balance between enabling transactions necessary to develop sufficient shared awareness and enable self-synchronization while discouraging those that are not mission critical

14. Comparative Agility Map for Organization-Approach options Endeavor Space with varying conditions of signal to noise and with varying requirements for shared situation awareness and response time Edge Collaborative Coordinated De-conflicted Organization Approach Options 14 Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012

15. Enablers of Agility Responsiveness Versatility Flexibility Resilience Adaptiveness Innovativeness These properties are interrelated Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012

16. Way Forward The first step one needs to take is to Think about Agility! 16 Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012

17. 17 Thank you for your attention. Questions ?