2. SOCIAL SHIFTS

3. Nation States Private Enterprises Civil Society Driven by - Globalisation of the Market Economy - Globalisation of Information SECTORAL POWER SHIFTS

4. S K I L S and R E S O U R C E S STATE PRIVATE SECTOR CIVIL SOCIETY Segregation of Powers Military (Security Agencies) Strong Political Parties based on values Administration Legislation Judiciary Professional Civilian Accountability Liberal Conservative Social Democrat etc Sustainable, independent and diverse Good infrastructure commercial / financial Regulatory environment Independent & strong Well - resourced Diverse interest groups

5. Distribution of Power and Influence: SWEDEN CIVIL SOCIETY SECTOR 11% PUBLIC SECTOR 27% PRIVATE SECTOR 62%

6. Distribution of Power and Influence: EUROPE CIVIL SOCIETY SECTOR 30% PUBLIC SECTOR 40% PRIVATE SECTOR 30% Sources: World Population Data Sheet 2010, Population Reference Bureau 2012 Data Sheet Population projection (2012) (millions): 2025 2050 750732 Population (2012): 740 million Urban population: 73% Life expectancy at birth: 77 years Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births): 5.22 Adult population (aged 15- 49) with HIV/AIDS (2012): MaleFemale 0.5%0.4% GNI PPP per capita (2011): US$ 27533 Population living on less than US$ 2 per day: 0% Population using improved sanitation (2011): UrbanRural99%

7. Concentration of Power and Influence: AFRICA Population (millions): 2025 2050 1,446 2,358 (750 732) Population (2012): 1,072 million (740 million) Urban population: 39% (73%) Life expectancy at birth: 58 years (76 years) Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births): 67 Adult population (aged 15-49) with HIV/AIDS (2009/2011): MaleFemale 3.0%4.7 (0.5%0.4%) GNI PPP per capita (2011): US$ 2,251 (US $25,580) Population living on less than US$ 2 per day: 65% (0%) Population using improved sanitation (2010): UrbanRural 42%23% (99%99%) State Private Sector Civil Society PEOPLE Sources: World Population Data Sheet 2010, Population Reference Bureau 2012 Data Sheet

8. Distribution of Power and Influence: SOUTH AFRICA CIVIL SOCIETY SECTOR 23% PUBLIC SECTOR 18% PRIVATE SECTOR 59%

9. Centre and Periphery: SOUTH AFRICA Centre 30% Periphery 70%

10. Distribution of Power and Influence: BURUNDI Civil Society Sector 4% Public Sector 61% Private Sector 35%

11. Centre and Periphery: BURUNDI Centre 5% Periphery 95%

12. Africa’s Dilemma Indigenous Methods of CR and PB ACCORD Interventions Developed Market Developed Democracy BurundiSouth AfricaSweden 100% education and economic prosperity New normative Framework: e.g. ICC, R2P Globalisation Multinational Corporations Managing conflict instead of solving it Economic and political marginalisation