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Published byVivian Williamson Modified over 9 years ago
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Lazy? OECD: average Greek worked 2,120 hours in the crisis year of 2008. That is 690 hours more than the average German, 467 hours more than the average Brit, and 356 more than the OECD average.
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Debt Prone? A European Central Bank study shows that in 2007-2009 forty-four per cent of eurozone households had debt. In Greece only 37 per cent did. Incidentally, Germans, who have often taken to lecturing Greeks on the virtues of thrift, were found to be ten percentage points more prone to getting indebted than the Greeks. p. 5, (European Central Bank, 2013)
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Corrupt? In the Eurozone decade before the crisis, Greece scored somewhere between 4.2 and 4.6 points, continuously improving, on a Transparency Corruption Perception scale where ten is perceived to be the least corrupt. This put Greece in positions 42 nd to 56 th, on par with countries such as South Korea, the Czech Republic or Slovakia. Some other countries that have been hyped as success cases in the initial crisis years, such as Poland: position 70.
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Average retirement age (Eurostat)
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Social spending as % of GDP - Eurostat
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Spending on public sector employees as % of GDP - Eurostat
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Total government expenditure as % of GDP - Eurostat
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Total government revenues as % of GDP - Eurostat
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GDP Growth Greece
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Greek debt dynamics
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Papandreou: welfare state, no taxes
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Wage share of GDP
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Greece in debt trap by 1990s!
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Nominal yield on reference gov bonds
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Debt stable during Eurozone!
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Eurozone not optimal currency area! (Kaltenbrunner, Lapavitsas et al.)
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Not a productivity issue! (Kaltenbrunner, Lapavitsas et al.)
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But a wage issue! (Kaltenbrunner, Lapavitsas et al.)
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Eurozone current account imbalances (Kaltenbrunner, Lapavitsas et al.)
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2010: Whom they really saved: bank exposure to euro periphery (BIS)
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Austerity is bad: debt growth
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Forced bailouts 3-5% of GDP in offshore annually (Cyprus, UK) 3-5% of GDP in offshore annually (Cyprus, UK) military expenditure 3.5% each year: military expenditure 3.5% each year: France, Germany sold €1bn worth of military to Greece in 2010 bailed out 4 biggest banks twice bailed out 4 biggest banks twice 87% of Troika loans sent to Greece spent on interest payments 87% of Troika loans sent to Greece spent on interest payments would need 6-8% growth to get out of sovereign debt trap would need 6-8% growth to get out of sovereign debt trap Germany borrows at 0%, lends at 5%, saves banks, parades as saviour Germany borrows at 0%, lends at 5%, saves banks, parades as saviour
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Syriza victory January 2015 Syriza is falsely portrayed as “extreme left” Thessaloniki Programme: Keynesian / Nordic model programme Accused of secret plan to take Greece out of euro: turned out not to have “plan B” Campaigned and won two mandates: 1.) keep Greece in Eurozone 2.) End austerity
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European Union asphyxiates democratically elected government ECB introduces QE in Jan 2015, but does not extend it to GR: with 2.2% refinancing rate this could be a solution Even though GR commercial banks pass stress tests at end of 2014, they are not allowed to accept GR government bonds as collateral Eurogroup (ad hoc body w not rules) denies democratically elected GR gov its own policies Threat of Grexit leads to deposit flight As a consequence Greek commercial banks go into Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) ELA is then capped, forceing GR gov to close down banks and introduce capital controls Tsipras capitulates in spite of 62% OXI. (85% of young people voted OXI)
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ECB used for political pressure Paul de Grauwe, Charles Wyplosz, Barry Eichengreen (leading neutral Eurzone experts): -ECB moves against the statutes -ECB used to apply political pressure
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2015: Third Memorandum New taxes will suppress GR economy Automatic (de)”stabiliser” austerity Unparralelled deregulation (pharmacies, milk) Privatisation against European trend (utilities) No measures against offshore, reversal of transfer pricing law, no cutting of captured state by oligarchs Reversal of humanitarian measures Reversal of collective wage setting (in place in 12 EU member states)
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