1. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 1 Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural Analyses for Pre-Conflict Water Security (Hydro-SC)

2. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 2 Questions from the July BOD Meeting What are we doing? Leverage USACE’s hydrologic and socio-cultural analysis capabilities to anticipate and safeguard against water security related issues, providing information for decision support in areas of potential conflict. What is the end product? The end product will be both continuously available hydrologic and socio-cultural analysis maps served through ERDC’s reachback capabilities (AGC/UROC) and a toolbox for more in- depth analysis of specific water security questions. Who is the end user? The targeted users for this technology are planning cells at the regional combatant commands for identifying local conflicts due to water and for decision support in strategic water resources investments and disaster planning Who are potential reimbursable customers? Intelligence community, Department of State Who will endorse the work? coordinating with the science advisors for letters of support from AFRICOM, PACOM and SOUTHCOM, MCIA

3. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 3 Coordination Activities Since July’s Meeting USMA – John Farr, MAJ Sugrue, LTC McCarthy, et al. Water security is critical for Phase 0 planning Identify the lead causes of human suffering Consider local capacity to operate and maintain infrastructure Decision support for strategic water resources investments (CERP) TEC/AGC – Mike Powers, et al. Users include CoCOMs, USG IC, ISAF, BCT J2 (which feeds J5) to operational manager Met officer within CoCOMs Broad scale to finer scale MCIA – Jim Hill and Travis Jacox Interested in socio-cultural impacts of environmental changes Have begun collecting socio-cultural data Include groundwater CIA/NGA Interest is capability for high-level planning Tools for early warning of vulnerable regions

4. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 4 A Phased Approach Phase I: Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural (Hydro-SC) Analysis of Flooding Phase II: Hydro-SC Analysis of Cross- Border Water Resources Phase III: Hydro-SC Analysis for Drought and Climate Scenarios CDR ME

5. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 5 Phase I: Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural (Hydro-SC) Analysis of Flooding Predicting floods and their human consequences can alert the Army to deploy support for disaster relief, prepare for mass migration or social unrest, and help identify vulnerabilities. Time scale: days to months or years Spatial scale: 1 -1000 km Socio-cultural features: social vulnerability, adaptive resilience Hydrologic processes: riverine and overland flow, historical and hypothetical meteorology Technical challenges: adapting socio- cultural models for OCONUS application, very large scale hydrologic analyses, simulation in ungaged basins Pakistan Flood RiskSocial Vulnerability Index

6. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 6 Phase I: Hydrologic and Socio-cultural Analyses of Flooding Tasks:  Identify demonstration region in AFRICOM and available data  Develop a proof-of-concept prototype in an AFRICOM-relevant environment to demonstrate the value of these products.  Prepare and model national and sub-national vulnerability and resilience with respect to the stakeholder concerns.  Extend hydrologic tools (LIS, GSSHA, ADH) for basin-scale inundation simulation and improved leveraging of remotely sensed data  Evaluate one-way coupled socio-cultural model for gauged basin Products:  Dynamic flood prediction mapping at basin and sub-basin scale, including vulnerability and resilience  Dynamic mapping capability showing water-induced vulnerability indices both as a database of images and available from a web service  Initial analysis of flood response, mass migration potential

7. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 7 Phase I: Proposed Improvements to Socio-Cultural Analysis Existing: Environmental Indicators and Warning’s Socio- Cultural Inputs Chronic water stress Freshwater Security Anomalies Population Industry Infant Mortality Political Factors Cutter et al. “A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters.” Global Environmental Change; 18; 2008. Proposed: Adapt and Incorporate Multi- Resolution, Locally-Relevant Definitions Antecedent Conditions Coping Responses – ability to manage within expected levels/variability of stress Preparedness Absorptive Capacity – ability to return to normal conditions after a perturbation Adaptive Resilience – ability to transform to a new configuration to address changing conditions

8. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 8 The Niger River Basin Phase II: Hydro-SC Analyses for Cross-border Water Resources Changes in use or availability of cross-border water resources can create instability. Examples include dam construction and changes to irrigation infrastructure. Optimize resource allocation. Time scale: months to years Spatial scale: 1 -1000 km Socio-cultural features: Population change, geopolitical, economic development & agriculture, displacement, educational attainment, trade impacts. Hydrologic processes: Riverine and overland flow, soil moisture and groundwater flow, historical and scenario- based meteorology Additional technical challenges: increased region of influence, longer time scales, additional processes This type of model estimates conditions and uncertainty of population characteristics and associated governance factors.

9. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 9 Phase II: Hydro-SC Analysis for Cross-Border Water Resources Tasks:  Identify a trans-national river basin in AFRICOM for demonstration and identify available sociocultural, hydrological, and economic data, and potential changes to hydraulic infrastructure  Apply sociocultural models (e.g., population forecasting, migration, land- use evolution, political, economic) for hydrological scenario-driven analysis (using remotely available data)  Extend hydrological tools for simulation of basin-to-local scale hydrology (remotely sensed data and additional processes)  Perform scenario evaluation and analysis for AFRICOM site Products:  Dynamic, web-portal mapping capability for: Hydrological prediction at basin and sub-basin scale Water-induced vulnerability indices at fidelity of a village, or small municipality

10. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 10 Helmand River Basin, Afghanistan Phase III: Hydro-SC Analyses for Drought and Climate Scenarios Evaluating drought conditions requires multi-year hydrologic analyses that include surface and groundwater as well as soil moisture. It also requires the use of long-range climate scenarios and population/water demand projections. Should also include feedback (SC -> Hydro). Time scale: months to decades Spatial scale: 1 -1000 km Socio-cultural features: Population change, geopolitical, economic development & agriculture, displacement, educational attainment, trade impacts, strategic access to natural resources. Hydrologic processes: Riverine and overland flow, soil moisture, groundwater, primarily scenario-based meteorology Additional technical challenges: Very long time scales add uncertainty (geo-political, demographic, meteorological) Land Use Evolution Map

11. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 11 Phase III: Hydro-SC Analysis for Drought and Climate Scenarios Tasks:  Implement bi-directional coupling (feedback from SC to Hydro)  Develop decadal meteorological scenarios for selected location  Perform scenario evaluation and analysis for AFRICOM site Products:  Dynamic, web-portal mapping capability for: Water-induced vulnerability indices at fidelity of a village, or small municipality Hydrological prediction at basin and sub-basin scale Alternatives analysis for CoCOM planners

12. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 12 Target Customers Phase I: Flooding analyses – J2, J5 CoCOMs for planning disaster relief, AGC/UROC reachback Phase II: Cross-border Water Resources - J2, multi- country plans to combat counter-terrorism, Nile River Basin Authority, Sudan [Need to work on this list] Phase III: Drought and Climate Scenarios – Theater campaign planner (Phase 0), J5

13. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 13 Financial Plan This effort targets needs in conflict avoidance, capacity building, and disaster preparedness. The existence of small, but vibrant reimbursable bases in both ERDC’s hydrologic and cultural analysis areas suggests a strong future demand for a combined capability. The tools and capabilities to be built through this project have a high probability of dual-use. Funding Targets FY11FY12FY13FY14FY15FY16FY17Total Direct ($M) 0.52.5 3.0 3.5 9.5

14. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 14 Approach / Milestones TASK NAME Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4 1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q 4Q Advance Existing Socio-Cultural Models Adapt current models to apply in regions of interest (e.g. AFRICOM) Extend socio-cultural models to include hydrologic forcing Advance Existing Hydrologic Modeling Capabilities Create and ingest large-scale hydrology, regional scale weather products Couple simulations of different scales and complexity Automate and accelerate model construction in data-sparse environments Integrate Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural Analysis Capabilities Make socio-cultural predictions based on multiple hydrologic forecasts Evolve hydrologic predictions based on population or land-use changes Modeling Environments and Decision Support Extend graphical interfaces for analysis tools Build scenario generation tools Build decision support tools on reduced order models and database mining Conduct demonstrations and outreach to target customers in DoD AFRICOM, EUCOM, SOUTHCOM, PACOM assist in choosing sites Demonstrate coupled hydrologic and socio-cultural modeling - Milestones - Demonstrations - Transitions

15. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 15 Purpose: Improve capability to understand and forecast risks to national security as a result of hydrologically-related events. Anticipate social consequences that may increase conflict or provide room to maneuver for extremist organizations Leverage USACE’s hydrologic and socio-cultural analysis capabilities to anticipate and safeguard against water security related issues, providing information for decision support in areas of potential conflict. Deliver usable capabilities to COCOM and other USG planners. Products: Next generation hydrology models that can: Identify inundated areas in days. Execute over large domains with locally tailored physics and resolution. Next generation socio-cultural models that can:. Incorporate non-U.S. social dynamics and processes. Integrate diverse, non-standard demographic data. Provide locally relevant predictions of vulnerability and resilience Coupled hydrology & social-cultural models that can: Identify groups significantly impacted by hydrological scenarios. Identify hydrological consequences of social and cultural change. Explore complex, adaptive interactions between water and society. Payoff: Quicker response, more complete representation for disaster relief. Ability to forecast changes in water supply / demand that allows the Army, COCOMs and intelligence agencies to include these factors in security policies and strategies. Improved ability to prioritize detailed analyses and contingency planning for water-security crises and resource allocation, based on social and cultural impacts. Pre-Conflict Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural Analyses for Water Security Schedule & Cost MILESTONESFY12FY13FY14FY15 Hydro-SC of flooding Hydro-SC of cross-border water resources Hydro-SC for drought and climate scenarios AT400.52.53.03.5 2 5 3 5 Status: New 3 5 Total: $9.5M Unclassified / FOUO

16. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 16 Extra Slides

17. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 17 The Team Hydrologic Modeling and Analysis  Dr. Mark Jourdan, CHL, product scope and design  Mike Follum, CHL, distributed hydrologic modeling  Dr. Nawa Pradhan, downscaling of remotely sensed data  Dr. Matthew Farthing, CHL, multi-scale modeling, knowledge extraction  Dr. Stacy Howington, CHL, surface/groundwater analysis, model interfaces  Mr. John Eylander, CRREL, weather/climate scenarios Socio-Cultural Modeling and Analysis  Mr. Tim Perkins, CERL, socio-cultural dynamics modeling  Dr. Lucy Whalley, CERL, socio-cultural anthropological analysis

18. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 18 Technical Challenges Fast, nation-scale hydrologic model setup and execution Multi-scale hydrologic modeling with upscaling/downscaling of measurements and simulation results Simulation in ungaged basins (driving models with remotely sensed data) Extending CONUS socio-cultural rules for application in OCONUS setting ….

19. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 19 “Avoiding Water Wars: Water Scarcity and Central Asia’s Growing Importance for Stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan” Committee on Foreign Relations, US Senate, Feb 2011 In Central and South Asia, particularly in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the impacts of water scarcity are fueling dangerous tensions that will have repercussions for regional stability and U.S. foreign policy objectives. The national security implications of this looming water shortage—directly caused or aggravated by agriculture demands, hydroelectric power generation, and climate instability—will be felt all over the world. … the United States should support efforts in Central and South Asia to model changes to water flow and volume for entire river basins across a range of scenarios, from the impacts of climate change to the construction of dams. Understanding these impacts, … will help governments make more informed decisions on water management. Basin-wide modeling is also useful for addressing tensions over hydroelectric dam proposals that continue to agitate countries sharing rivers. For the major dam proposals … there is still no independent analysis of the cumulative impact these projects will have on water flow. … The impact of our actions to address water extends far beyond a country’s border, as water transcends political boundaries.

20. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 20 COCOM Requirements Among the USACE Military Missions is COCOM support (Robert Slockbower, SES, Director of Military Programs) Following are excerpts from a COCOM survey on the issue of water security PACOM – COCOM’s should consider transboundary water security threats as they develop their Theater Campaign Plans. Upstream development can have serious negative impacts on downstream developing countries’ navigation, fisheries, irrigation, etc, potentially leading to conflict if cooperative arrangements/mechanisms are not in place to mitigate impacts. EUCOM – Paul Simon Water for the Poor Act requires Dept of State to develop and implement a strategy for water issues. AFRICOM – OSD should assist with integrating water security issues into Theater Campaign Plans and other policies.

21. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 21 Business Concept Mission: The DoD’s missions include anticipating and avoiding conflicts and providing support for disaster relief. These missions are rife with resource allocation decisions that must be supported by our best science. Competitive Advantage: ERDC’s competitive advantage comes from its status as a world leader in hydrologic analysis, its socio-cultural expertise and a history of providing military engineering products usable by the field, which makes us uniquely qualified to lead this mission. Reimbursable Base: Currently, ERDC is responsible for a growing reimbursable/reachback business in hydrologic analysis for planning and operations. To date, customers have requested studies on flooding in Pakistan and Haiti, dambreak and flood mapping in Afghanistan and Iraq, and basin-scale, multi-national hydrologic evaluations in Africa. Customers include  Intelligence Agencies (MCIA, NGA)  US State Department  COCOMs (EUCOM, CENTCOM, SOUTHCOM, AFRICOM, PACOM)

22. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 22 Support BG DeLuca (NAD) leads USACE support for AFRICOM and has promised cooperation and support. (now headed for Engineer School at Ft. Leonard Wood) Letters of support are in progress from AFRICOM and PACOM. MCIA’s initial reactions:  Important work and people will want it  Must focus on specific basins/locations to show capability  Must deliver on a short timeframe (COCOM commanders think on a 2- year timeframe). Break down into incremental products.  Won’t be able to pre-compute all scenarios. Must speed up model setup and execution to be useful.  Must be clear that this is not a general tool and will require some local tweaking (especially socio-cultural)  Should include groundwater and effects of aquifer decline

23. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 23 Competition Several entities are performing hydrologic analyses, but most are at a local or regional scale. Others are working at a very large scale (SERVIR), but lack the ability to include higher fidelity results. The Central Intelligence Agency’s Environmental Indicators and Warnings (EIW) system uses relatively crude hydrologic analysis to drive water vulnerability indices. This approach is useful for large-scale (global to basin scale) identification of high-risk areas, but doesn’t incorporate more nuanced models of resilience and vulnerability (or hydrology) necessary for targeted, localized analyses. The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization has several programs aimed at assessing and improving groundwater and surface water management and encouraging low-water-use crops Academic partnerships like Stanford University’s Woods Institute for the Environment are conducting the Global Freshwater Initiative which seeks to build policy evaluation models that account for both hydrologic processes and economic behavior

24. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 24 Tiers of Customers TierCustomerValue CurrentMCIA, NGA, COCOMsCurrent reimbursable work 1 State DepartmentPotential for work supporting disaster relief and development (Simon Water Act) 3 Other Intelligence Agencies (CIA, DIA)Potential for classified work 3 Ft. Huachuca – Intelligence Battle LabEvaluates and refines tools and methods to support intelligence analysts 3 Department of Homeland Security Civil Agencies (including USACE) CONUS applications 3 US Army Reserve Security Cooperation Teams US Army Active Security Cooperation Teams US Army Staff, G3/5/7 3 Joint Staff, J3 (Operations) 3 COCOM planners (AFRICOM is most pressing) Long-range forecasting; What-if scenarios for projected weather impacts

25. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 25 Joint Doctrine Applies Phasing to Campaign Planning Phase 0 – Shape – Prevent/Prepare. Joint and multinational operations are performed to dissuade or deter potential adversaries and to assure or solidify relationships with friends and allies. They are designed to assure success by shaping perceptions and influencing the behavior of both adversaries and allies, … improving information exchange and intelligence sharing, and providing US forces with peacetime and contingency access. Shape phase activities must adapt to a particular theater environment and may be executed in one theater in order to create effects and/or achieve objectives in another. Current examples of Phase 0: Djibouti, Somalia, Korea During Phase 0, Regional Combatant Commanders use the military element of national power to assess and monitor the area of operations (AO), engage as a partner with Militaries of other nations, and assure capacity is there in case of natural disaster or instability. Due to CENTCOM’s operations, there is much pent-up demand for assistance in most other Regional Combatant Commands.

26. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 26 Transitioning scales: Downscaling parameters From Hendrickx, Pradhan, et al. SEBAL derived IC (a), GSSHA with constant ICs (b-e), GSSHA with SEBAL IC (a)

27. US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 27 Types of Products Continuous, short range forecasts of hydrologic state and social vulnerability provided by webservice through AGC/UROC for regions of interest More focused, higher resolution studies driven by local concerns