3. Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) Overview and Challenges Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) Overview and Challenges Eric Blake 3-17-04 Eric Blake 3-17-04

4. TPC/WFO MFL OCT 4, 2000 Florida Turnpike Florida Int’l University

5. OUTLINE Brief TAFB duties and products overview Data and Model Sources Forecast Challenges Possible TC graphic and verification Future

6. TPC/NHC Hurricane Specialists Unit Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) Technical Support Branch (TSB) –Storm Surge Unit Chief Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination All Hurricanes (CARCAH)

8. TAFB provides products which include marine forecasts and warnings, surface analyses, tropical weather discussions, and backup aviation forecasts and warnings (SIGMETs). The unit also issues satellite imagery interpretation and satellite rainfall estimates for the international community. TAFB provides operational tropical cyclone support during the tropical seasons through manpower, forecast and media support, radar tracking, and tropical cyclone position and intensity estimates based on the Dvorak technique. Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB)

9. TAFB Duties Issue marine forecasts (text and graphical) for the tropical and sub- tropical Atlantic and Northeast and Southeast Pacific Oceans. Produce 3-hourly tropical surface analysis Tropical Weather Discussions Estimate intensity and position of tropical cyclones using the Dvorak technique

10. Subtropical cyclone intensity estimates using Hebert/Poteat Technique Provide Satellite Rainfall Estimates WSR-88D radar fixes for land-falling tropical cyclones Media support during tropical cyclone events Tropical cyclone forecast support FEMA -Hurricane Liaison Team (HLT) TAFB Duties

11. TAFB Production Suite Atlantic Desk –Marine Weather Discussion (2) –High Seas - HSFAT2 (4) –Offshore Waters OFFNT3 (4) OFFNT4 (4) –Seastate Analysis (4) –ATLC Wind/Wave Charts (8) Analyst/Forecaster –Tropical SFC Analysis (8) –TWDAT (4) –Wave Period/Swell (6) –PANAM Temps (2) Pacific Desk –Dvorak Classifications –(4 Synoptic/Intermediate) –TWDEP (4) –High Seas HSFEP2 (4) HSFEP3 (4) –High Wind/Danger Area Atlantic Pacific –EPAC Wind/Wave Charts (11)

12. TAFB High Seas Forecast Areas

13. Offshore Forecast Area

14. Atlantic Surface Analysis

15. Atlantic Wind/Wave Forecast

16. Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Hazard Area Graphic 1 June - 30 Nov

17. High Wind Area Graphic

18. 12 Planet coordination with WFO’s 3 hourly surface analyses over tropical N. American region. What’s new in 2004 Products What’s new in 2004 Products

19. Sparse data - need for remote sensed data Reliable guidance over the tropics (or lack thereof) Local effects (sea-breeze, topography, diurnal) Small amplitude/scale associated with many significant weather features Reliability of ship observations (not quite as good as land stations) Challenges of analyzing and forecasting tropical weather Challenges of analyzing and forecasting tropical weather

20. Typical 24 hour Composite of Atlantic Ship and Buoy Observations

21. Numerical Guidance (GFS,ETA,NWW3,UKMET,NOGAPS, GFDL/GFDN, CMC, Ensemble probabilities) Surface Observations (metar, ship, buoys) Satellite Radar  including Caribbean countries Upper Air Observations Weather reconnaissance data Conventional Data

22. Ensemble Probabilities

23. Spaghetti Diagram

24. Conventional Data Often is Not Enough TAFB relies on additional sources of data such as microwave and remote- sensing data in order to gain a better understanding of the current/forecast situation, especially in data sparse regions

25. Satellite Derived Winds Quikscat Additional Data used by TAFB

26. Quikscat

28. Satellite Derived Winds Quikscat SSMI Additional Data used by TAFB

29. SSMI

30. Satellite Derived Winds Quikscat SSMI ERS-2 Data Additional Data used by TAFB

32. Forecast Challenges Wind “funnelling” through passages NWW3 biases Central Caribbean Sea strong trades

33. YUCATAN CHANNEL FLORIDA STRAITS BAHAMA BANK WINDWARD PASSAGE MONA PASSAGE ANEGADA PASSAGE GULF OF HONDURAS

34. Gulf of Mexico Examples Recent examples of NWW3 under- forecasts along frontal boundary in the Gulf of Mexico and Western Atlantic. Next few slides show examples of ship and buoy observations (red) with the NWW3, significant wave height forecasts (black) valid at the time of the observations. Most observations in Gulf of Mexico and extreme Western Atlantic are moored buoys and are considered extremely reliable.

35. NWWIII under-forecasting seas behind front in NW Gulf of Mexico 6 h forecast

36. Similar example: 9 h forecast

37. Example of an over-forecast of seas in central Gulf of Mexico well behind the front. 24 h forecast

38. NOAA Wavewatch III Biases Does not develop seas fast enough behind strong cold fronts, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico and W Atlantic, and is often slow in subsiding the seas beyond 24 hours after frontal passage. This bias likely due to improper handing of initial growth of seas, as well as under- forecasting of winds by AVN model. Under-forecast of seas in Caribbean during strong trade wind events (also largely due to under-forecasting of winds. Occasionally over-forecasts swell heights in TAFB forecast areas.

39. GFS 10-m wind forecast depicting funneling winds in the Yucatan Channel

40. 1135 UTC 29 November 2003 QUIKSCAT PASS depicting higher winds in Yucatan Channel

41. 2319 UTC 11 November 2003 QUIKSCAT PASS depicting higher winds in Florida Straits

42. NWW3 wave height forecast depicting lower seas in the Bahama Bank

43. GOMEX Shelf Water Event 25 January 2004 confirmed by Quikscat This event was similar to the southerly Gulf Stream events off the mid-Atlantic and New England waters. The mid- Atlantic and New England events were documented by OPC and are characterized by warm southerly winds which do not mix down to the surface over the cool waters west of the Gulf Stream.

44. Between about 0000 and 1200 UTC 25 January strong southerly winds occurred over portions of the western Gulf of Mexico. Offshore buoy over the warmer Gulf waters reported 28 to 33 kt sustained winds with gusts to 39 kt while winds over the cooler shelf waters were around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Quikscat from 0050 UTC detected the weaker winds near shore. The gradient of weaker winds matched well with SST data from buoys and satellite.

45. Warm “Tongue ” Cold Shelf Waters

47. Quikscat from 0050 UTC 25 January. Surface observations from 0400 UTC SSTs in Red

48. Coordination Crucial part of operations due to overlap of OFF and CWF areas because of NAVTEX products. Means of Coordination –Hurricane Hotline - Large Synoptic scale systems affecting multiple offices –Telephone call to individual offices –Marine Weather Discussion TAFB also coordinates with OPC and WFO Honolulu/CPHC.

49. Hurricane Isabel Coordination EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 3:30 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003 MARINE… COORDINATION CALL FROM TAFB INDICATED THAT INCREASING SWELL HEIGHTS FROM ISABEL COULD BE ARRIVING IN OUR OFFFSHORE WATERS… BEYOND 60 MILES OF SHORE… AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. HAVE MADE TIMING AND WAVE HEIGHTS ADJUSTMENTS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO POST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION SUNDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS BY MONDAY. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 3:20 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003 MARINE…OBS INDICATING LONG PERIOD SWELLS ATTRIBUTED TO HURRICANE ISABEL WITH PERIODICITY ~ 14 SECONDS. WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY. OFFSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY REACH SCEC CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO COMBINED SEAS…FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION CALL TAFB.

50. Introduction of the term “Possible” Tropical Cyclone TAFB realized a better service could be provided to mariners by giving a “heads-up” to “possible” TC development. TAFB began experimenting with using the term “Possible” Tropical Cyclone in some graphic and text products during the 2001 tropical season.

51. “Possible” Tropical Cyclone Forecasts TAFB forecasters and duty hurricane specialist (HS) collaborate on areas of possible TC development HS and TAFB forecasters use satellite analysis (Dvorak) to determine the current strength and structure of a system Use numerical models to determine its likelihood of future development

52. “Possible” Tropical Cyclone Forecasts If it is determined that TC development is “possible” within 36 hours, the HS and TAFB forecaster will agree on the shape and size of the “possible” TC development area on the danger chart. TAFB forecaster will make sure that all subsequent text and graphic charts issued by TAFB indicate “possible” TC development.

53. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook 530 PM EDT (2130 UTC) Sat 07 Sep 2002 A large area of cloudiness and showers extend from the Bahamas northeastward for several hundred miles. This activity is associated with an upper-level area of low pressure and a surface trough. There is a potential for tropical or subtropical cyclone development of this weather system. Image courtesy FNMOC Classifications 07/1800 UTC TAFB - ST=1.5 SAB - TWTC GFS 24 h fcst valid 1200 UTC 08 Sep 2002 MSL and 10m wind GFS 24 h fcst valid 1200 UTC 08 Sep 2002 850 mb wind and relative vorticity

54. Corresponding Danger Graphic Result 24 h lead time 1500 UTC 08 Sep 30 kt ST depression

55. Examples of the TAFB Danger Graphic and JTWC Formation Alert. TAFB DG is issued every 6 hours. While the JTWC FA is issued as needed and updated at least every 24 h. There is coordination between the duty NHC HS, JTWC, and Navy Norfolk when required. JTWC Formation Alert issued 1200 UTC 25 Sep TAFB Danger Graphic issued 0900 UTC 25 Sep

56. Verification of “Possible” TC Forecasts 2002-2003 forecasts were verified from the TAFB TC Danger Graphic. Events forecasts were verified. The probability of detection (POD), false alarm rate (FAR), and average lead time were computed.

57. Verification Results of Atlantic Event Forecasts

58. Future Changes Microwave satellite fixes-2004 season In-house SHIP QC Program Highest wave height during TC event Altimeter data in N-AWIPS Seamless Surface Forecasts Maps coordinated with OPC/HPC/HFO