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Aviation and climate change: thoughts on UK policy Peter Lockley Ubina Environmental Consulting Saturday 18 th June 2011
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Contents The Climate Change Act Aviation emissions – do they fit? 2050 target and the CCC Report Is the 2050 target the right one? Cleaner planes? Implications for policy
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The Climate Change Act 2008 –First climate change target enshrined in legislation: 80% cut on 1990 levels by 2050 5-year budgets to keep UK on track to meet target Advice of Committee on Climate Change on budgets etc –International aviation (+shipping) excluded, but: Budgets must be set ‘taking into account’ IAS Govt must include by end of 2012, or say why not.
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Q: How does aviation fit into the budget?
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A: With difficulty. Overall 80% cut in 2050 requires: –International shipping no higher than 2005 levels; –Non-CO 2 emissions cut by 70% (maximum feasible); –International aviation no higher than 2005 levels; –All other sectors reduce emissions by c.90% No offsets available by 2050 Cost of forcing extra cuts in other sectors?
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2050 target and CCC report Jan 2009: previous Govt set target for absolute emissions to be no higher in 2050 than 2005 Dec 2009: CCC Report on how to meet the target: –0.8% annual improvement in fuel efficiency ‘likely’ –Passenger numbers can increase to 370 mppa by 2050 – MAX compatible with target –cf ATWP: 470 mppa by 2030, 570 by 2050. –Even with no new runways, and C price rising to £200/t in 2050, demand = 425 mppa.
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Is ‘2005 levels’ the right target? Impact on other sectors Shipping may be higher than assumed by CCC – report due this year Aviation non-CO 2 impacts: –NO x at altitude, cirrus, contrails –Problems with RFI, but new work on GWP(100) suggests multiplier of 2. –So… cut aviation target in half? Or other sectors cut by 95%?!
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CCC on non-CO 2 effects “As scientific understanding develops, and to the extent that this confirms the significant additional warming from aviation non-CO 2 effects, it is very likely that these will become fully accounted for…” “It is reasonable to assume… that some additional emissions reduction effort would be required in aviation.” IMPLIES that stabilisation is a bare minimum acceptable target for aviation.
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Cleaner planes: in theory Source: Sustainable Aviation Roadmap 2008
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Cleaner planes: in practice Trends in UK terminal passengers and emissions from UK aviation Source: CAA airport Statistics and UK National GHG Inventory data (DECC)
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“A genuinely sustainable framework” Reaffirm 2050 target, with a commitment to regular review of adequacy in light of: –Non-CO 2 science; –Trends in other sectors. Immediate freeze on airport expansion: –ATWP is dead, so no policy basis to support expansion –Current permitted expansion = c.370mppa (AEF/WWF) –Growth only in return for proven fuel efficiency gains –New slots auctioned to highest bidder every 5 or 10 years – if any available? Increase in APD, strengthening of EU ETS when possible, package of support for alternatives.
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