1. Workshop on Inventories and Projections of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Waste 8-9 March 2006, EEA, Copenhagen Use of FOD for estimation of methane emissions from municipal solid waste in the EU25: ‘Outlooks’ Under contract with the European Environment Agency Alejandro Villanueva etcw-av@mst.dk European Topic Centre on Resources and Waste Management

2. What is the goal of the ’outlooks’ project?

3. Outline 1. Background for the projections What information did we use to estimate CH 4 generation from landfills? – IPCC methodology – MSW only! 2. Key parameters Activity data: Composition of the landfilled waste Amounts landfilled: 1950-1990 and 1990-2005 Methane recovery ratios IPCC methane oxidation parameters: MCF & OX 3. Future work Under contract with the European Environment Agency

4. Background for the projections FOD

5. Background for the projections FOD vs massbalance - food waste

6. Background for the projections FOD vs massbalance - wood waste

7. Background for the projections FOD vs massbalance: 15-35 years back needed

8. Background for the projections FOD A modification of the draft IPCC spreadsheet

9. Background for the projections FOD A modification of the IPCC spreadsheet Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) only ! The reason: An econometric model has been developed in the ETC/RWM, but for MSW only

10. MSW generation projections

11. Biodegradable waste amounts captured Under contract with the European Environment Agency Origin Treatment Waste fraction Households Source - Separated fractions: Mech-Biol. Treatment Export Incineration Recycling (incl. composting) In MSW (contains 20-50% biowaste and 10-25%paper) Sewage sludge Markets, commerce and offices Park and garden waste Sewage sludge Biowaste Wood Paper ? Stabilisation (composting, AD) Agriculture L a n d f i l l i n g Industry Industrial biowaste ?

12. 4 Key parameters Activity data: Composition of the landfilled waste Amounts landfilled: 1950-1990, 1990- 2005, and 2005 -2020 Methane recovery ratio Oxidation rates: MCF & OX Under contract with the European Environment Agency

13. 1. Composition of the landfilled waste Typically in reports from national research institutions / consultants

14. LANDFILLED WASTE COMPOSITION OXIDATION IN THE LANDFILL (MCF, OX) CH4 RECOVERY 1995 19751985 1965 1955 2035 2025 2015 2005 DATA CERTAINTY WASTE AMOUNTS % TO LANDFILL 1 2 3 4

15. 2. Amounts landfilled 2.1 Total amounts generated

16. 2. Amounts landfilled 2.2 Percentage of MSW to landfill

17. The Landfill Directive targets MSW generation and BMW landfilling trend in the EU15 Under contract with the European Environment Agency OBS!: Only MUNICIPAL biodegradable waste: no sludge, no industrial waste 1999: Directive enters into force 68 % 75 % 50 % 35 %

18. Landfill Directive targets Under contract with the European Environment Agency Are MS on the way to meet the LD targets? Ref. 2006 2009 2016

19. 2. Amounts landfilled 2.2 Percentage of MSW to landfill

20. LANDFILLED WASTE COMPOSITION OXIDATION IN THE LANDFILL (MCF, OX) CH4 RECOVERY 1995 19751985 1965 1955 2035 2025 2015 2005 DATA CERTAINTY WASTE AMOUNTS % TO LANDFILL 1 2 3 4

21. 3. Methane recovery

23. LANDFILLED WASTE COMPOSITION OXIDATION IN THE LANDFILL (MCF, OX) CH4 RECOVERY 1995 19751985 1965 1955 2035 2025 2015 2005 DATA CERTAINTY WASTE AMOUNTS % TO LANDFILL 1 2 3 4

24. 4. Oxidation in the landfill

25. LANDFILLED WASTE COMPOSITION OXIDATION IN THE LANDFILL (MCF, OX) CH4 RECOVERY 1995 19751985 1965 1955 2035 2025 2015 2005 DATA CERTAINTY WASTE AMOUNTS % TO LANDFILL 1 2 3 4

26. Interim results Under contract with the European Environment Agency + + + ….

27. Future work in the ETC/RWM 1. Refinement of the 4 key parameters 2. Extension of the projections to: 1. Other landfilled organic waste fractions 1. Industrial waste 2. Sewage sludge 2. Other waste treatment technologies (composting, incineration) Under contract with the European Environment Agency