1. 1 DOHA WORK PROGRAMME CURRENT SITUATION AND ISSUES FOR PAKISTAN Presentation at the EC-Pakistan TRTA Seminar at Islamabad By Dr. Manzoor Ahmad Ambassador and PR of Pakistan to the WTO, Geneva 28-8-2007

2. 2  After 6 years of Doha Round negotiations, draft modalities on agriculture and NAMA circulated on 17 July 2007.  Preliminary discussions show that members are closing gaps on most issues relating to Agriculture while on key issues of NAMA (coefficients) serious differences remain.

3. 3 Agriculture  Negotiations more advanced on Export Competition, less so on Domestic Support and Market Access.  Complete elimination of Export Subsidies by 2013.  For Overall Trade Distorting Support (OTDS) cuts between 66-73% proposed.  This implies cut of US OTDS from $ 48.2 billion to between $ 16.4 to 13 billion

4. 4  For greater Market Access, average tariff cuts of 54% proposed for developed countries.  For developing countries, cuts of two thirds of developed countries.  Developed countries can designate 4-6% of dutiable tariff lines as “Sensitive” products.  Not much progress on Special Products (SP), tariff escalation, preference erosion.

5. 5 IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN  Improved market access and higher export prices for rice, ethanol, horticulture and other agricultural products.  According to ADB study, removal of subsidies on cotton would mean 2 million farmers getting out of poverty.  Very little impact on our current agricultural import tariffs.

6. 6 NON AGRICULTURAL MARKET ACCESS (NAMA)  Tariff cuts with coefficients of 8 or 9 for developed countries and a figure between19- 23 for developing countries.  Flexibility for developing countries to apply less than formula cut for 10% or no cut for 5% tariff lines.  Implementation period of 5 years for developed countries and 9 years for developing countries.

7. 7 IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN  Tariffs on our major exports (textile and clothing) to be cut from the current 12- 32% to less than 7% in US and EU.  If a coefficient of 23 is agreed for developing countries, our import tariffs to be reduced to 15% or less over the next 9 years.  For sensitive industries such as automobiles and some consumer goods, no lowering of existing applied tariffs.