1. PROGRAM THEORY What is it? Why is it important?

2. Most familiar form – Logic Model Where are you going? How will you get there? What will tell you that you’ve arrived?

3. Three parts of Logic Model InputsOutputsOutcomes

4. Family Members Budget Car Camping Equipment Drive to state park Set up camp Cook, play, talk, laugh, hike Family members learn about each other; family bonds; family has a good time Logic Model Example: Family Vacation Contents depend on perspective

5. Program Theory Takes multiple perspectives into account Can be used to address complex problems Support complex solutions

6. Definition Planning framework Emphasizes Analysis Conceptualization Evaluation Two interactive parts Theory of change Theory of action

7. Starting Point – Assess Your Circumstances What is the problem (preliminary)? Who does the problem affect? What are their needs? Who will the program serve? Who should be involved in program theory development?

8. Conduct a Situation Analysis Names and frames problem Potential approaches (any order; any mix) Mental modeling Inductive reasoning Deductive reasoning

9. Guiding Questions for Situation Analysis Revisit (and revise) problem statement Who? History? Future projections? Causes? Past solutions? Effects? Theories? Direct and indirect consequences? Description - resolved

10. Design an Outcomes Chain

11. Design a Theory of Action What is needed to bring about each outcome in the outcomes chain? Actors Activities Timing Resources Communication Overarching theory

12. Example

13. Set Success Criteria for Each Step 1. Collect course data 50% of faculty participate Dataset 100% complete 2. Data guide decisions about needed revisions 100% receive data report (faculty, ID, evaluator) 100% complete “findings-action” (F-A) planning sheet 75% agreement on F-A sheet 3. Establish an action plan for improvement 100% faculty develop action plan 100% action plans include ID and PD comments 100% action plans measureable 100% action plans have timeline

14. Design an Evaluation Process Inputs Cost, time, staff, materials, etc. Outputs Each “link” in outcomes chain – success criteria Outcomes Program goals Short, intermediate, long

15. Two Types of Comparisons Congruence Was each step achieved If achieved, lead to desired “link”? Breaks in the outcomes chain? Associations/cause and effect

16. Congruence Adequately implemented? Sufficient participation and uptake? Intermediate outcomes achieved? Final outcomes achieved? Interpretation No Implementation failure YesNo Engagement failure Yes No Early causal link failure Yes No Later causal link failure Yes NoYes Different causal path Yes Theory success

18. Program Theory Uses? Importance?