1. Political Partianship and Welfare State Reform in Advanced Industrial Societies James P. Allan Lyle Scruggs

2. What you should remember after the presentation: Beware of expenditure data! Retrenchment exists! Right politics matter!

3. 1. Used in many studies, (OECD, but also others) – there are important differences across time series An outcome measure – level of unemployment, size of client groups matter Normally measured as a percentage of GDP 1. Pros: Easily available across time and countries Cover the entire welfare state, all programs and all aspects Provide a summary measure across different aspects

4. Social expenditure data 1. Problems: Other factors, GDP, level of unemployment can have a strong effect The spending implication of many decisions are long-term – for instance pension reforms Comparability problems when breaks them down into subcategories In sum Important datasource, pros and cons of any type of data Social expenditure are often used without any theoretical reflection – capture retrenchment better than reform. Beware of gross compared to net!

5. Method Unemployment insurance and sickness benefit replacement rates for 18 countries (75-99) More retrenchment than other cross-national studies. Estimating the effects of governmental partianship on changes in income replacement rates (net) in unemployment and sickness programs Partianship effect (rigth cabinet) on entitlements

6. Graphs Graph: Replacement rate: to what extent does benefit replace income Table: Left/right parties pos/neg association with growing replacement rates = more/less resistant to WS retrenchment

8. Independent Variables Allan & Scru- ggs Left CabinetRight Cabinet Other testsConverg-ence? Pre- reces- sion Post- reces- sion Pre- reces- sion Post- reces- sion Initial Level of Replacement Rate -- - - Right Cabinet Share -- - -- Left Cabinet Share ++++ GLOB/ Trade Openness ---- GLOB/ Financial Openness - CONTR/ Veto Points + CONTR/ Corporatism ++++++ Unemployment Rate - GDP Growth + Deficits --

9. Place & Critisism Against path dependency (Pierson, New Politics, Actor- centered Institutionalism) Rather siding with Clayton and Pontusson (Power-centered Theory), who also studied benefits and found retrenchment. (Incremental changes, anti-WS coalitions, weakening WS) COV of unemployment: ”Strong negative convergence pattern” 75: 31 % variation in the 18 countries replacement. 99: 22 % variation, a bit less, but a strong neg…? 9% COV of sickness: actually divergence..

10. Critisism APW: Average (?) of net household of 1 single worker and family of four with 1 nonemployed adult. Male breadwinner.. A&S says right wing government will change WS. If so, are not the long time lapses between their measurements of importance? They give critisism to others for long time lapses. Is Scandinavian retrenchment consistent with a fragmentated WC?

11. Critisism Do the 18 countries have the same kind of facilitating labour market schemes? Taken into account how long people are unemployed? Some countries with more unemployment than others? Universalism/residualism? Explanation for retrenchment in benefits? If retrenchment is blame avoidance (PP), is then right wing better at this..?

12. What you should remember after the presentation: Beware of expenditure data! Retrenchment exists! Right politics matter!