1. KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association www.kit.edu Variability in forecasts of the track of Typhoon Jangmi and its interaction with the midlatitude flow during T-PARC Sarah Jones Doris Anwender, Christian Grams, Julia Keller, Simon Lang Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Karlsruher Institut für Technologie Extratropical Transition (ET) of Typhoon Jangmi (2008) 01 Oct 200830 Sep 200828 Sep 2008 MTSAT Images from Digital Typhoon

2. Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association ECMWF EPS Strike Probability Initialised 26 Sept 2008 12 UTC Initialised 26 Sept 2008 00 UTC

3. Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association ECMWF Deterministic Forecast Verification for 30 Sept 00 UTC Analysis D-2 D-1 D-3 D-4

4. Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association Jangmi flights during T-PARC Jangmi best track 20080923-20081001

5. Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association CentreNationInitial pert method Fcst days No. pert members BMRCAustraliaSing. Vec.1032 CMAChinaBred Vec.1014 CPTECBrazilEOF-based1514 ECMWFEuropeSing.Vec1550 JMAJapanBred Vec.950 KMAKoreaBred Vec.1016 MSCCanadaEns KF1620 MeteoFranceFranceSing.Vec.2.510 NCEPUSABred Vec.1620 UKMOUKETKF1523 Ensemble prediction system (EPS) containing 10 different ensemble forecasts from weather services world wide Possibility to: Compare predictability for case in different EPS Get new scenarios as by using single EPS TIGGE: Ensemble forecast with up to 248 members THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)

6. Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association TIGGE Tracks for Jangmi +12+24+36+56+48+84+72 +108+96+132+120+132+144+156 Track-Forecast for TY Jangmi (TIGGE TC Track Data) IT: 2008-09-24, 12 UTC

7. Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association Track-Forecast for TY Jangmi (TIGGE TC Track Data) IT: 2008-09-25, 12 UTC +12+24+36+56+48+84+72 +108+96+132+120+132+144+156 TIGGE Tracks for Jangmi

8. Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association Track-Forecast for TY Jangmi (TIGGE TC Track Data) IT: 2008-09-26, 12 UTC +12+24+36+56+48+84+72 +108+96+132+120+132+144+156 TIGGE Tracks for Jangmi

9. Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association Track-Forecast for TY Jangmi (TIGGE TC Track Data) IT: 2008-09-28, 12 UTC +12+24+36+56+48+84+72 +108+96+132+120+132+144+156

10. Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association Position of TY Jangmi in each ensemble member tracked using mslp 200 hPa ensemble std.dev. (40°-60°N) Downstream variability in TIGGE Forecasts from 2008-09-26, 12 UTC

11. Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association Downstream variability in TIGGE

12. Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association Remnants of Jangmi Initialization Time: 2008-09-26, 12 UTC Cluster Time:2008-10-01, 12 UTC Clustertime 4 from 10 TIGGE Clusters

13. Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association Remnants of Jangmi Initialization Time: 2008-09-26, 12 UTC Cluster Time:2008-10-01, 12 UTC 48 hrs later (2008-10-03, 12 UTC) merged 4 from 10 TIGGE Clusters

14. Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association 2.8km 7.0km 2.8km 7.0km COSMO forecasts duringT-PARC Operational COSMO forecasts during T-PARC at KIT Up to 16 forecasts per day on HP XC4000 at SCC Karlsruhe 2 domains 2 driving global models: GME (DWD) and IFS (ECMWF) 2 horizontal resolutions: 0.0625° and 0.025° 2 initial times: 00Z and 12Z

15. Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association Outflow – Jet interaction 3rd PANDOWAE Workshop, Bensheim-Auerbach - Christian Grams 200 hPa wind COSMO-GME forecast 0.25°, BT 20080929 00UTC

16. Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association Interaction with low-level baroclinic zone and jet Symposium „Klimasystem Nordatlantik“, Hamburg - Christian Grams 20080930 12UTC – 20080929 00UTC backward trajectories Criterion: ascent > 5000 m 2 PVU contour (blue-green shaded) 60 m/s contour COSMO-GME forecast 0.25°, BT 20080929 00UTC geopotential and temperature at 1000 hPa Trajectories indicate advection of tropical air into the jet core Downstream development similar to ET of TS Lili (Agusti- Panareda, 2004) VT 20080930 12UTC Thanks to PANDOWAE partners Heini Wernli for providing LAGRANTO and Maxi Boettcher for helping with the implementation Ph.D. Christian Grams

17. Singular Vectors targeted on Jangmi / Jet from 28.09.2008 00 UTC Position of Jangmi and Jet over Japan on 30.09.2008 00 UTC sensitive to both midlatitude flow and track and structure of Jangmi Moist Singular Vectors (Dry Norm) with TL159 Resolution (~ 1.2°) Jangmi similar upstream structures Shaded: vertically integrated total energy of leading five singular vectors Black: 500 hPa streamlines

18. - Perturbation growth between TC outflow and midlatitude flow - Perturbations travel along PV Gradient 28.09.2009 00 UTC + 24h 1 SV Total Energy and PV ~ 200 hPa 28.09.2009 00 UTC + 24h Wind ~ 200 hPa

19. Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association COSMO-GME vs. COSMO-IFS COSMO-GMECOSMO-IFS T T T T T +30h 6Z 30 Sep +72h 0Z 2 Oct COSMO-GME: Jangmi reintensifies as extratropical system COSMO-IFS: Jangmi decays, new development downstream Jangmi moves faster towards Japan in COSMO- GME than in COSMO-IFS.

20. Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association COSMO-GME vs. COSMO-IFS In both model runs new PV tower evolves in extratropical low. 00 UTC 30 Sep 2008 New PV tower new PV separated from old TC core. New PV tower evolves after 18 hrs new PV replaces old TC core. Early low-level new PV after 21 hrs, PV tower evolves after 30 hrs. COSMO-IFS COSMO-GME Both forecasts 0.25°, BT 20080929 00UTC

21. Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association Falcon #22 20080930 00Z Source: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu Lidar and dropsondes COSMO wind speed along flight track JMA upper air and radar network AMSU-a T-PARC observations

22. Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association JMA-Radar data during T-PARC Radar overlap in regions affected by ET rainfall → Calculation of horizontal wind field from radial Doppler winds TY Sinlaku 16Z 17 Sep 2008 TY Jangmi 14Z 30 Sep 2008

23. Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association 01 Oct 200830 Sep 200828 Sep 2008 Summary  Large variability in track forecast – will ET occur?  Convection and new PV tower develops as Jangmi interacts with low-level baroclinic zone  Outflow from convection into midlatitude jet - jet accelerates  Uncertainty downstream: does downstream low develop from Jangmi or is it a new development?  Contrast to Sinlaku: baroclinic development vs. TC reintensification