1. Approaches to a VULNERABILITY Assessment Sylvia Prieler May 26, 2004 Land Use Project IIASA

2. Vulnerability approach 1.Define scope 2.Qualitative - CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK general; case specific 3.Quantitative – a) Determine INDICATORs b) Methodology 4.Strategies to reduce vulnerability Climatic variability - impact on agricultural production – vulnerability of the people Where are people most vulnerable to climatic variability and why?

3. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK Qualitative

4. Key issues in CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK Qualitative People rural/urban Agric. Prod. variability WATER ECONOMY LAND Climate variability Policy & INSITUTIONS

5. People - URBANIZATION Surplus rural labor estimates are 30% or 120-150 mio. Income disparity between rural and urban areas per capita annual disposable income: factor 2.2 (1994 and 2000) Qualitative MIGRATION to urban areas Population in 2001: Rural:796 mio. (62%) Urban:481 mio. (38%)

6. People - URBANIZATION Government promotes urbanization WTO membership Future: increasing urbanization Scenarios: by 2030 at 55 to over 60% Qualitative Challenge: loss of cultivated land good arable land; farmers loose their farmland (estimates at 1.5 mio. every year in last decade) ratio: cultiv. land / rural labor is decreasing Increasing water demand of urban household

7. INDICATORS Proxy indicators for describing agricultural production variability aridity index; length of growing period; rainfed potential grain production; actual grain production a) rainfed b) irrigated Quantitative

8. INDICATORS

9. INDICATORS - Methodology Quantify by ranking across the country Use threshold given by certain ‘sustainability indicators’ cultiv. land / capita (0.4ha/capita) GIS overlay techniques formulate relevant questions: LGP 5% + irrig.share < 60% + …. Where are these areas? How many people are affected by such conditions? Quantitative

10. INDICATORS - Methodology Quantitative Distribution of ARIDITY INDEX (average climatic conditions) Population living in areas classified as Semiarid Environments (0.2<=P/ ET0<0.5)

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