1. 1 Implications of a Doha Agreement for Agricultural Markets in Sudan Imad Eldin Elfadil Abdel Karim University of Khartoum - Sudan David Abler Penn State University - USA

2. 2 The latest round of multilateral trade negotiations was launched at the ministerial meeting of the WTO in Doha, 2001. The latest round of multilateral trade negotiations was launched at the ministerial meeting of the WTO in Doha, 2001. Agriculture is a major item on the agenda for the Doha Round. The primary focus is on the three “ pillars ” of the Uruguay Round agreement — domestic support, market access, and export competition. Agriculture is a major item on the agenda for the Doha Round. The primary focus is on the three “ pillars ” of the Uruguay Round agreement — domestic support, market access, and export competition. The framework for a final agreement was finalized in July 2004, it contains few details on modalities (e.g., the formula to be used for reductions in tariffs/increases in tariff- rate quotas, quantitative limitations on domestic support, and the schedule for the elimination of export subsidies) The framework for a final agreement was finalized in July 2004, it contains few details on modalities (e.g., the formula to be used for reductions in tariffs/increases in tariff- rate quotas, quantitative limitations on domestic support, and the schedule for the elimination of export subsidies) Introduction: Doha Agenda

3. 3 Detailed proposals on a number of these issues were put forward in October 2005 by the European Union and the United States, in addition to the G10 and G20 groups of countries. Detailed proposals on a number of these issues were put forward in October 2005 by the European Union and the United States, in addition to the G10 and G20 groups of countries. In this paper we analyzed the implications of the provisions of a Doha agreement on agricultural markets in Sudan. More specifically, the impact of the US, EU, and G20 proposals on agricultural markets in Sudan was analyzed. In this paper we analyzed the implications of the provisions of a Doha agreement on agricultural markets in Sudan. More specifically, the impact of the US, EU, and G20 proposals on agricultural markets in Sudan was analyzed.

4. 4 Agriculture in Sudan (background) Agriculture is the main sector of economy. Agriculture is the main sector of economy. The agricultural sector contributed about 40% of the GDP (1994-2006) The agricultural sector contributed about 40% of the GDP (1994-2006) Agricultural exports were the main sources of foreign currency before exploitation of oil e.g. during the period 1994-1998, agricultural commodities represented about 88.6% of the total country ’ s exports, this share declined to only 6.0% in 2006. Agricultural exports were the main sources of foreign currency before exploitation of oil e.g. during the period 1994-1998, agricultural commodities represented about 88.6% of the total country ’ s exports, this share declined to only 6.0% in 2006.

5. 5 Sudan is not a currently member of the WTO although it has been in the accession process since 1994 Sudan is not a currently member of the WTO although it has been in the accession process since 1994 Sudan undertake reforms of its all commercial laws to bring all its trade- related laws, regulations and procedures into conformity with WTO requirements. Sudan undertake reforms of its all commercial laws to bring all its trade- related laws, regulations and procedures into conformity with WTO requirements. Assuming that Sudan continues outside of WTO membership, its trade policies will not be directly affected by a Doha agreement. But Sudan could be affected significantly by changes in global agricultural markets. Assuming that Sudan continues outside of WTO membership, its trade policies will not be directly affected by a Doha agreement. But Sudan could be affected significantly by changes in global agricultural markets.

6. 6 Methodology The analysis is based on the Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Trade Simulator (PEATSim) developed by the Penn State University in collaboration with the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department. The analysis is based on the Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Trade Simulator (PEATSim) developed by the Penn State University in collaboration with the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department. The model is dynamic, multi-country, multi- commodity covers 35 of the major traded agricultural commodities and contains a detailed representation of markets and policies in twelve countries/regions that are particularly significant for world agricultural trade The model is dynamic, multi-country, multi- commodity covers 35 of the major traded agricultural commodities and contains a detailed representation of markets and policies in twelve countries/regions that are particularly significant for world agricultural trade Sudan was included in the model to depict the potential impact of trade liberalization on its agriculture. Sudan was included in the model to depict the potential impact of trade liberalization on its agriculture.

7. 7 Production and/or consumption of 15 of the 35 products in PEATSim are negligible in Sudan: soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, sunflowerseed oil, sunflowerseed meal, rapeseed, rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, pork, butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk, whole dry milk, and other dairy products Production and/or consumption of 15 of the 35 products in PEATSim are negligible in Sudan: soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, sunflowerseed oil, sunflowerseed meal, rapeseed, rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, pork, butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk, whole dry milk, and other dairy products

8. 8 Treatment of Trade Raw milk, fluid milk, and other dairy products are treated as non-traded commodities. The other 32 commodities are traded internationally Raw milk, fluid milk, and other dairy products are treated as non-traded commodities. The other 32 commodities are traded internationally The model is non-spatial, meaning that it does not distinguish a region ’ s imports by their source or a region ’ s exports by their destination. The model is non-spatial, meaning that it does not distinguish a region ’ s imports by their source or a region ’ s exports by their destination.

9. 9 Policy Coverage The model incorporates a wide range of domestic and border policies in agriculture The model incorporates a wide range of domestic and border policies in agriculture The core set of policies for all countries includes both specific and ad valorem import tariffs, tariff-rate quotas (TRQs), and producer and consumer subsidies. The core set of policies for all countries includes both specific and ad valorem import tariffs, tariff-rate quotas (TRQs), and producer and consumer subsidies. Other types of domestic policies and programs are also included. For example for the EU the model includes intervention prices, variable import levies, compensatory payments, acreage set- asides, base area bounds. Other types of domestic policies and programs are also included. For example for the EU the model includes intervention prices, variable import levies, compensatory payments, acreage set- asides, base area bounds.

10. 10 Model Structure and Parameters a reduced-form economic model a reduced-form economic model The behavioral equations in the model are largely constant-elasticity in nature The behavioral equations in the model are largely constant-elasticity in nature The structure of the behavioral equations is the same for all countries in the model The structure of the behavioral equations is the same for all countries in the model The model includes five types of consumption activities: food/consumer demand, feed demand, crush demand, dairy processing demand, and other use demand. The model includes five types of consumption activities: food/consumer demand, feed demand, crush demand, dairy processing demand, and other use demand. A number of restrictions were imposed on the model's elasticities to ensure that requirements of economic theory are satisfied at the baseline values for the data A number of restrictions were imposed on the model's elasticities to ensure that requirements of economic theory are satisfied at the baseline values for the data

11. 11 WTO Scenario The impact of US, EU, and G20 proposals (on market access, export subsidies and domestic support) on agricultural market of Sudan was analyzed. The impact of US, EU, and G20 proposals (on market access, export subsidies and domestic support) on agricultural market of Sudan was analyzed. Market Access - The tariff cuts for the US, EU, and G20 proposals as they are simulated in this scenario are presented in the next table: Market Access - The tariff cuts for the US, EU, and G20 proposals as they are simulated in this scenario are presented in the next table:

12. 12 G20 ProposalEU ProposalUS Proposal Percentage Cut in AVE AVE Tariffs within Band Percentage Cut in AVE AVE Tariffs within Band Percentage Cut in AVE AVE Tariffs within Band Developed Countries 45%0-2035%0-3055-65%0-20 Band 1 55%20-5045%30-6065-75%20-402 65%50-7550%60-9075-85%40-603 75%75+60%90+85-90%60+4 100% 75%Tariff Cap (%) 1%8%1% Sensitive Products (% of Tariff Lines) G20 ProposalEU ProposalUS ProposalDeveloping Countries 25%0-3025%0-3037-43%0-20 Band 1 30%30-8030%30-8043-50%20-402 35%80-13035%80-13050-57%40-603 40%130+40%130+57-60%60+4 150% 100%Tariff Cap (%) 1%8%1% Sensitive Products (% of Tariff Lines) [1] [1] AVE = ad valorem equivalent. [2] [2] Developing country tariff cuts under the US proposal are two-thirds of the corresponding developed-country cuts.

13. 13 Export Competition - The three proposals analyzed include the elimination of export subsidies Export Competition - The three proposals analyzed include the elimination of export subsidies Domestic Support – For the purposes of this paper, the EU ’ s Single Farm Payment (SFP) and US direct payments are assumed to remain in the Green Box. The PEATSim model also assumes that these payments have no impacts on production. Domestic Support – For the purposes of this paper, the EU ’ s Single Farm Payment (SFP) and US direct payments are assumed to remain in the Green Box. The PEATSim model also assumes that these payments have no impacts on production.

14. 14 Some Selected Results

15. 15 Domestic Prices G20 ProposalEU ProposalUS ProposalCommodity 5.44.77.2Rice 5.64.57.7Wheat 9.57.411.9Corn 8.67.210.5Other Coarse Grains 2.21.93.2Sunflower seed 3.32.54.6Cottonseed 3.42.74.6Cottonseed Oil 1.60.72.0Cottonseed Meal 3.12.54.2Peanuts 2.72.23.6Peanut Oil 4.53.46.6Peanut Meal 5.94.08.5Other Oilseeds 5.43.97.2Other Oilseed Oil 4.01.08.7Other Oilseed Meal 4.13.15.4Cotton 11.07.414.7Sugar 4.33.16.3Beef & Veal 3.42.64.8Poultry 2.42.03.1Raw Milk 2.52.03.2Fluid Milk

16. 16Production G20 ProposalEU ProposalUS ProposalCommodity 0.70.60.9Rice 0.60.51.0Wheat 2.11.72.6Corn 2.01.82.3Other Coarse Grains -0.7-0.5-0.9Sunflowerseed -0.7 -0.8Cottonseed -0.20.0-0.4Cottonseed Oil -0.20.0-0.4Cottonseed Meal -0.1 Peanuts -0.5-0.4-0.6Peanut Oil -0.5-0.4-0.6Peanut Meal 0.40.10.8Other Oilseeds -1.5-1.1-1.9Other Oilseed Oil -1.5-1.1-1.9Other Oilseed Meal -0.7 -0.8Cotton 2.71.83.6Sugar -0.1-0.20.3Beef & Veal -0.7-0.6-0.5Poultry 0.30.20.4Raw Milk 0.10.00.1Fluid Milk

17. 17 Consumption G20 ProposalEU ProposalUS ProposalCommodity -0.1 Rice -0.1 -0.2Wheat -0.7-1.1Corn -0.8-0.7-0.8Other Coarse Grains ———Sunflowerseed -0.20.0-0.4Cottonseed -0.8-0.6-1.1Cottonseed Oil -0.1 Cottonseed Meal -0.2-0.1-0.2Peanuts -0.5-0.4-0.7Peanut Oil -0.4 -0.5Peanut Meal -1.5-1.1-1.9Other Oilseeds -1.5-1.1-2.0Other Oilseed Oil -0.4-0.1-0.8Other Oilseed Meal -0.1 Cotton -0.6-0.4-0.8Sugar -0.4-0.2-0.6Beef & Veal -0.1 0.0Poultry 0.30.20.4Raw Milk 0.10.00.1Fluid Milk

18. 18 G20 Proposal (2014) EU Proposal (2014)US Proposal (2014)Model Baseline (2014)Base Period (2004) Commodity ImportsExport s Import s ExportsImport s ExportsImportsExportsImportsExports 360 0 0 0 0Rice 1063010640106001067010660Wheat 0010002000Corn 0300027903150142017Other Coarse Grains 0606060607Sunflowerseed 40404030Cottonseed 0505060503Peanuts 02780275028002730218Other Oilseeds 0000000000Other Oilseed Oil 0000000100Other Oilseed Meal 0760 0 077079Cotton 17731764178117471724Sugar 011050200506 Beef & Veal 2170 0 0 0 0 Poultry Exports and Imports (1000 MT)

19. 19 Conclusion As long as Sudan is not a member of the WTO, the major effect of global agricultural trade liberalization facing it is higher world prices and therefore higher domestic prices As long as Sudan is not a member of the WTO, the major effect of global agricultural trade liberalization facing it is higher world prices and therefore higher domestic prices Sudan ’ s agricultural producers will benefit from higher prices but consumers will be negatively affected Sudan ’ s agricultural producers will benefit from higher prices but consumers will be negatively affected Production and exports of major agricultural commodities are projected to increase under the US, EU, and G20 proposals Production and exports of major agricultural commodities are projected to increase under the US, EU, and G20 proposals

20. 20 Designing domestic policy that favorable for agriculture is important for Sudan to maximize its benefits from global agricultural trade liberalization and to maximize its potential in agricultural production Designing domestic policy that favorable for agriculture is important for Sudan to maximize its benefits from global agricultural trade liberalization and to maximize its potential in agricultural production

21. 21 Thanks