1. Alaska Marine Sciences Symposium Gulf of Alaska – Wednesday, January 24th, 2007 Session 2: Lower Trophic Levels Poster Presentations Intertidal and subtidal 2) Temporal and Spatial Variability of Nearshore Crab Larvae Ben Daly* School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 245 O'Neill Bldg. P.O. Box 757220 Fairbanks, Alaska 99775-7220, (907)474-7074 daly@sfos.uaf.edu Brenda Konar. Global Undersea Research Unit, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 217 O'Neill Bldg. P.O. Box 757220 Fairbanks, AK 99775- 7220 (907)474-5028 bkonar@guru.uaf.edubkonar@guru.uaf.edu Compare temporal variability between species in the zoeal and megalopa stages and compare habitat use between species over time regardless of larval stage in Kachemak Bay.

2. 3) Remote Sensing of Seagrass Resources in Kachemak Bay, Alaska Don, Field, NOAA Center for Coastal Fisheries and Habitat Research, Don.Field@noaa.gov; *Kris, Holderied, NOAA Kasitsna Bay Lab, Kris.Holderied@noaa.gov; Mark, Fonseca, NOAA Center for Coastal Fisheries and Habitat Research, Mark.Fonseca@noaa.gov Seagrass beds were mapped in Kachemak Bay in 2005 using aerial photographs. 4) Development and Testing of a Probability-based Intertidal Monitoring Scheme for Sitka National Historic Park, Alaska Gail V. Irvine*, USGS-Alaska Science Center, gail_irvine@usgs.govgail_irvine@usgs.gov Presents an intertidal monitoring program at the Sitka National Historic Park

3. 5) www.seaweedsofalaska.com - a photo-rich portal to the taxonomy of Alaskan seaweeds and their habitats Mandy Lindeberg, Auke Bay Laboratories Alaska Fisheries Science Center NOAA/NMFS, Mandy.Lindeberg@noaa.gov *Sandra Lindstrom, University of British Columbia, sandracl@interchange.ubc.ca Susan Saupe, Cook Inlet RCAC, Saupe@circac.orgSaupe@circac.org Information on a website to aid in taxonomic classification and mapping of seaweeds 6) Community structuring impacts of Enteroctopus dofleini in Prince William Sound, Alaska Courtney Lyons*, Alaska Pacific University, courtney.lyons@gmail.com David Scheel, Alaska Pacific University, dscheel@alaskapacific.edu Leslie Cornick, Alaska Pacific University, lcornick@alaskapacific.edu Roman Dial, Alaska Pacific University, roman@alaskapacific.eduroman@alaskapacific.edu Role of an octopus in structuring intertidal communities in Prince William Sound.

4. Plankton 1) Zooplankton populations on the Alaskan Shelf and northern Gulf of Alaska Sonia Batten, Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, soba@sahfos.ac.uksoba@sahfos.ac.uk Examines continuous plankton recorder data from the northern Gulf of Alaska collected from 2000 to present.

5. Autonomous Zooplankton Sampling for Ocean Observing Systems J.M. Napp 1, D.V. Holliday 2, C.F. Greenlaw 2, P.J. Stabeno 3, and A.J. Jenkins 3 1 NOAA – Alaska Fisheries Science Center 2 BAE Systems 3 NOAA – Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

6. 1) Calibration of a nutrient - phytoplankton - zooplankton model for use with a three dimensional physical model to simulate ecological mechanisms on the northern Gulf of Alaska shelf K. O. Coyle, Institute of Marine Science, University of Alaska, coyle@ims.uaf.edu S. Hinckley, Alaska Fisheries Science Center/NMFS, Sarah.Hinckley@noaa.gov A. J. Hermann, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Albert.J.Hermann@noaa.govAlbert.J.Hermann@noaa.gov 2) Rocky Intertidal Benthos in Iniskin/Iliamna Bay: A 28-Year Baseline and Hints of Climate Change? Jon Houghton, Pentec Environmental/Hart Crowser, Inc., jon@pentecenv.com Dennis Lees, Littoral Environmental and Ecological Services, dennislees@earthlink.net Sandra Lindstrom, University of British Columbia sandrcl@telus.net, andsandrcl@telus.net Jason Stutes, Pentec Environmental/Hart Crowser, Inc. jason.stutes@pentecenv.com jason.stutes@pentecenv.com

7. 3) Role of Grazers in the Recolonization of Hard Bottom Communities in Kachemak Bay, Alaska Nick Harman, University of Alaska Fairbanks, ftnwh@sfos.uaf.eduftnwh@sfos.uaf.edu 4) Clams and Armor: Were They Casualties of the War on the Beaches? Dennis Lees, Littoral Ecological & Environmental Services, dennislees@earthlink.net William Driskell, bdriskell@comcast.netbdriskell@comcast.net

8. Calibration of a nutrient - phytoplankton - zooplankton model for use with a three dimensional physical model to simulate ecological mechanisms on the northern Gulf of Alaska shelf K. Coyle, Institute of Marine Science, University of Alaska S. Hinckley, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115. A.J. Hermann, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115. Funding Agency: North Pacific Research Board

9. Understand the mechanistic links between physical forcing and the ecosystem response. Major Goal of Biological Oceanographic Programs 1)To accomplish this goal we aim to develop and verify the quantitative relationships between the physical and biological data collected during field observations. 2)The quantitative relationships between physical and biological observations are expressed by equations in mathematical models. 3)The simulations generated by the mathematical models must be compared with actual measurements to insure that the model output is an accurate reflection of actual conditions in the environment.

10. 1)Site description 2)Brief description of the model. 3)Comparison of model output with GLOBEC results 4)The model as a research tool. Description of how the model is used to generate data sets permitting direct comparison of simulated results with field measurements.

11. 1. Site Description

12. May 26, 2000

13. Any attempt to understand the potential influence of climate on the Gulf of Alaska shelf ecology must consider the highly complex physical regime shown above. The physical model which drives the biological simulation must be capable of reproducing the physical environment, at least in the statistical sense: density distribution, flow patterns and eddies. 1. Model Description

14. Physical Model: 1)Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 2)Northeast Pacific (NEP) Component has 11 km resolution 3)Coastal Gulf of Alaska (CGOA) component has 3 km resolution 4)Ocean boundaries of the CGOA open allowing entry and exit of Alaska Stream waters 5)Bathymetry was derived from ETOPO5 and finer-scale bathymetric data. 6)The model has 30 layers, layers are concentrated near the surface (surface layer thickness varies from 0.3 to 15 m depth). 7)Physical model is driven by MM5 climatology.

15. 11 Component Model Slide by G. Gibson Iron

16. Is this level of model complexity necessary? For optimal utility, the complexity of mathematical models should not exceed that required to address the problem under consideration. Highly complex models can: 1) Be difficult to parameterize because of the large number of potentially unconstrained variables. 2) Require unreasonably long times to run because of the additional algorithms which must be executed to generate model output.

18. Neocalanus other mesozoo microzoo 2.6 20.1 1.6 sinking? advection? 67 41.7 A. Spring large-cell dominated food web microzoo other mesozoo 13 ? larvaceans 4 13 B. Summer small-cell dominated food web (dashed line = episodic event) Units: µgC liter -1 d -1 pink salmon ? ? Data from Dagg and Strom

19. Mean Zooplankton Biomass: 1998 to 2003 GLOBEC Seward Line Data

20. Mean copepod biomass: 1998 to 2003 GLOBEC Seward Line Data

21. Complexity of the 11 box model is probably the minimum required to accurately simulate observed conditions in the northern Gulf of Alaska

22. Model Validation Using One Dimension Model Output Model validation and parameterization requires direct comparison of simulated values with actual measurements generated from field collections. The fully three dimensional model with embedded biological component requires about three and a half weeks for a single simulation for the northern Gulf of Alaska. Model output for direct comparison of simulated biological variables with field data are generated using a one – dimensional model forced with physical results for any selected location from the three dimensional simulations for the entire Gulf of Alaska grid.

23. Prince William Sound Resurrection Bay Knight Island Passage Middleton Island Station locations for biological data from the northern Gulf of Alaska.

24. GAK6 2001 Model Simulation

25. 0 20 40 60 80 Measured Biomass Measured and simulated biomass of phytoplankton along the Seward Line in May Measured values from a poster by Lessard and Foy Station Numbers

26. 0 20 40 60 80 Measured and simulated biomass of phytoplankton along the Seward Line in June - July Measured values from a poster by Lessard and Foy Measured Biomass Station Numbers

27. GAK6 2001 Model Simulation

29. Mean (1998 – 2003) Copepod Carbon Biomass Measured Values

30. Model as a research tool

31. How does a regime shift impact the shelf ecosystem? Strong Southerly Marine Wet Weak Northerly Continental Dry Elevated freshwater input from runoff and glacial melt Low freshwater input; less precipitation and runoff; glacial growth rather than retreat Modified from Gargett (1997) What might the model tell us about climate influences on the shelf

32. 1) Will declines or increases in freshwater input to the shelf result in increases or declines in lower trophic – level production? What is the potential magnitude of the response? 2) Are specific regions more sensitive to shifts in freshwater input than others? If so, where and by what magnitude? 3) What sample density and frequency would be required to detect a climate – related change in lower trophic level production? What would be the optimal station distribution? 4) Will a shift in freshwater input lead to higher or lower cross – shelf transport? What regions will be most impacted? 5) What is the potential effect of elevated temperatures on lower trophic level production? Questions (Conclusions) that the fully implemented 3 – dimensional model with embedded biological model might address

33. Most of the data for model calibration were collected by Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC) program for the northern Gulf of Alaska. Participants included: Tom Weingartner, Tom Royer, Evelyn Lessard, Suzanne Strom, Terry Whitledge, Dean Stockwell, Jeff Napp, Phyllis Stabeno, Lew Haldarson, Jennifer Bolt, Russell Hopcroft, Alexei Pinchuk, Mike Foy, Hue Liu, Michael Dagg, Seth Danielson. The ROMS model was implemented for the Gulf of Alaska by Elizabeth Dobbs, Al Hermann and Kate Hedstrom. The biological model was originally developed by Sarah Hinckley. The GLOBEC program was jointly funded by the National Science Foundation and NOAA. Additional data for model calibration was provided by the North Pacific Research Board monitoring project along the Seward Line. Acknowledgments