Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov ESRL / GSD Verification Summit September 2011 Updated Sep 7, 2011.

Published byAbigayle Bradford Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov ESRL / GSD Verification Summit September 2011 Updated Sep 7, 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov ESRL / GSD Verification Summit September 2011 Updated Sep 7, 2011

2 LAPS Motivation High Resolution (500m – 20km), rapid update (10-60min) Highly portable system – about 150 users world wide Federal Gov’t – NWS, RSA, PADS, FAA, DHS State Gov’t – California Dept of Water Resoures International – Finnish Met. Inst., China Heavy Rain Inst. Global analysis – used by SOS Wide variety of data sources: OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch2

3 Data Ingest Intermediate data files ClassicGSI Data STMAS-3D Trans Model prep WRF-ARWMM5WRF-NMM Ensemble Forecast Probabilistic Post Processing Error Covariance LAPS / STMAS DA-Ensemble System 3 http://esrl.noaa.gov/gsd/fab OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch Analysis Scheme Verification Built-in Verification Ports with system

4

5 Global Solar Radiation Analysis + Observations OK Mesonet ARL / FRD

6 Global Solar Radiation Analysis + Observations 3-Frames at 15-minute interval

7 Solar Radiation Analysis Verification Oklahoma Region (past 48 hours) 15 minute verification ~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations. 3 km grid spacing1 km grid spacing

8 Solar Radiation Web Page Verified at station locations measuring global solar radiation on time scales <= 15min Mean Analyzed / Forecast Mean Observed RMS differences

9 Solar Radiation Analysis Verification HWT Domain Analysis (72 hour time series) ~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations. Clearer Days

10 Solar Radiation Analysis Verification HWT Domain Analysis (72 hour time series) ~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations. Partly Cloudy Days

11 Downward Solar Radiation Forecast vs. Observations

12 Cloud Cover Analysis Matching 1-3 hour Solar Radiation Forecast

13 Solar Radiation Ensemble Forecast Verification HMT Forecast (00-09 hours) ~6 Idaho ARL solar radiation stations.

14 Solar Radiation Forecast Verification HWT Forecast (00-06 hours) LAPS / STMAS / HRRR + Oklahoma solar radiation stations. LAPS STMAS HRRR LAPS STMAS HRRR

15 Radar Reflectivity Verification Web Page Verified over various domains of integration for deterministic as well as ensemble forecasts. 3D radar volume data at several reflectivity thresholds. BIAS ETS

16 CloudSat Verification of LAPS Cloud Analysis LAPS CloudSat

17 16 June 2002 3-hr Forecast, Lin μPhysAnalysis Well-Developed Squall Line at Initial time

18 Bias & ETS June 16 2002 Low Sensitivity in Bias to Variations in Microphysics (developed squall line case) ETS values are highest at early times due to hot-start

19 Ensemble ETS (North-East Corridor) STMAS BIAS (North-East Corridor) CONUS LAPS/WRF and HRRR

20 Forecast at 2011-09-04 00Z ETSBias NE Corridor Domain

21 That’s the latest – Questions?

22 2hr HOT FcstAnalysis2hr NO-HOT Fcst 850 mb Analyzed and Simulated Reflectivity 16 June 2002

23 Why most of the metadata are N/A?

Download ppt "LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov ESRL / GSD Verification Summit September 2011 Updated Sep 7, 2011."

Similar presentations

Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting
Verification and calibration of probabilistic precipitation forecasts derived from neighborhood and object based methods for a convection-allowing ensemble.

Verification and calibration of probabilistic precipitation forecasts derived from neighborhood and object based methods for a convection-allowing ensemble.
Space and Time Multiscale Analysis System (STMAS)

Space and Time Multiscale Analysis System (STMAS)
CHOICES FOR HURRICANE REGIONAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST (HREF) SYSTEM Zoltan Toth and Isidora Jankov.

CHOICES FOR HURRICANE REGIONAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST (HREF) SYSTEM Zoltan Toth and Isidora Jankov.
Rapid Refresh and RTMA. RUC: AKA-Rapid Refresh A major issue is how to assimilate and use the rapidly increasing array of off-time or continuous observations.

Rapid Refresh and RTMA. RUC: AKA-Rapid Refresh A major issue is how to assimilate and use the rapidly increasing array of off-time or continuous observations.
The 2014 Warn-on-Forecast and High-Impact Weather Workshop

The 2014 Warn-on-Forecast and High-Impact Weather Workshop
The Variational Version of the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS): Hot-start Data Assimilation of Convective Events Steve Albers, Yuanfu Xie,

The Variational Version of the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS): Hot-start Data Assimilation of Convective Events Steve Albers, Yuanfu Xie,
NWP Verification with Shape- matching Algorithms: Hydrologic Applications and Extension to Ensembles Barbara Brown 1, Edward Tollerud 2, Tara Jensen 1,

NWP Verification with Shape- matching Algorithms: Hydrologic Applications and Extension to Ensembles Barbara Brown 1, Edward Tollerud 2, Tara Jensen 1,
RTMA (Real Time Mesoscale Analysis System) NWS New Mesoscale Analysis System for verifying model output and human forecasts.

RTMA (Real Time Mesoscale Analysis System) NWS New Mesoscale Analysis System for verifying model output and human forecasts.
Univ of AZ WRF Model Verification. Method NCEP Stage IV data used for precipitation verification – Stage IV is composite of rain fall observations and.

Univ of AZ WRF Model Verification. Method NCEP Stage IV data used for precipitation verification – Stage IV is composite of rain fall observations and.
Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting. The National Weather Service The National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for forecasts several times.

Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting. The National Weather Service The National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for forecasts several times.
Hongli Jiang, Yuanfu Xie, Steve Albers, Zoltan Toth

Hongli Jiang, Yuanfu Xie, Steve Albers, Zoltan Toth
NextGen FAB Progress and Plans Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov, Zoltan Toth, Scott Gregory, Kirk Holub, Yuanfu Xie, Paula McCaslin NOAA/ESRL/GSD Forecast.

NextGen FAB Progress and Plans Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov, Zoltan Toth, Scott Gregory, Kirk Holub, Yuanfu Xie, Paula McCaslin NOAA/ESRL/GSD Forecast.
1 On the use of radar data to verify mesoscale model precipitation forecasts Martin Goeber and Sean Milton Model Diagnostics and Validation group Numerical.

1 On the use of radar data to verify mesoscale model precipitation forecasts Martin Goeber and Sean Milton Model Diagnostics and Validation group Numerical.
ESA DA Projects Progress Meeting 2University of Reading Advanced Data Assimilation Methods WP2.1 Perform (ensemble) experiments to quantify model errors.

ESA DA Projects Progress Meeting 2University of Reading Advanced Data Assimilation Methods WP2.1 Perform (ensemble) experiments to quantify model errors.
Status of RSA LAPS/MM5 System Sustainment John McGinley, Steve Albers*, Chris Anderson*, Linda Wharton NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Global Systems.

Status of RSA LAPS/MM5 System Sustainment John McGinley, Steve Albers*, Chris Anderson*, Linda Wharton NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Global Systems.
All-sky imagery: Observations and Simulations with the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) Steve Albers 1,2, Kirk Holub 1, Hongli Jiang 1,2, Yuanfu.

All-sky imagery: Observations and Simulations with the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) Steve Albers 1,2, Kirk Holub 1, Hongli Jiang 1,2, Yuanfu.
Forecasting in a Changing Climate Harold E. Brooks NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory (Thanks to Andy Dean, Dave Stensrud, Tara Jensen, J J Gourley,

Forecasting in a Changing Climate Harold E. Brooks NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory (Thanks to Andy Dean, Dave Stensrud, Tara Jensen, J J Gourley,
Verification Summit AMB verification: rapid feedback to guide model development decisions Patrick Hofmann, Bill Moninger, Steve Weygandt, Curtis Alexander,

Verification Summit AMB verification: rapid feedback to guide model development decisions Patrick Hofmann, Bill Moninger, Steve Weygandt, Curtis Alexander,
Space and Time Multiscale Analysis System A sequential variational approach Yuanfu Xie, Steven Koch Steve Albers and Huiling Yuan Global Systems Division.

Space and Time Multiscale Analysis System A sequential variational approach Yuanfu Xie, Steven Koch Steve Albers and Huiling Yuan Global Systems Division.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google