1. Ecosystem Based Modeling for Sustainable Regional Development of the Marine and Estuarine Resources in Coastal NSW Philip Gibbs Karen Astles

2. The Program & Linkages DPI/CSIRO 5 year collaboration ‘Umbrella program’ Comprehensive Coastal Assessment Enhanced decision support tools for NRM action plans (phase 2) Northern Rivers CMA (CLAM project) Initial project in Clarence Estuary CSIRO National Research Flagships ‘Wealth from Oceans’ theme

3. Objectives Modelling frameworks for a multiple – use management of coastal environments Develop and apply models of the ecosystem and human activities Design and evaluate potential ‘monitoring programs’ Broad “Whole of Landscape” Modelling

4. Data Management Objectives Management strategy/ scenarios Presentation of outputs to decision makers Policy formation Management responses Monitoring/ adaptive management Building virtual ecosystem (Operating model) Atlantis Biogeochemical model Program Outline

5. Human activities impacts Ecosystem Modelling & Monitoring Management

6. Interface Between ManagementScience Stakeholders

7. Climate Change National Adaptation Framework Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Increasing Temperature Rainfall:- variability, total amount, ENSO Sea level rise Increasing ocean acidity

8. Likely Impacts Ocean current changes Storm surges Freshwater flow to estuaries Habitat change Recruitment patterns fish & invertebrates Biodiversity, Threatened species, Marine pests Socio economic effects

9. Tools Spatial biogeochemical model with coupled physical transport ‘ATLANTIS’ – – Physical box model in 3 dimensions – – Nutrient flow (nitrogen silica), mass balance of functional groups (physical, O 2 CO 2, living, detritus) – – Trophic dynamics (food web) of primary & secondary producers / consumers (phytoplankton to dolphins) – – Growth, mortality, recruitment, migration, consumption, excretion, predation, habitat dependency Computational limit

11. “What if” Scenarios Timeframe 1950 to 2030 Fisheries management – catch, effort, gear, zoning, closures, by-catch Climate change Land-use Increasing population and urbanisation Socio economic change

12. The Future Finer resolution of the shelf model nearshore component Explicit representation of Marine Parks Second estuary with a focus on urban rather than agricultural inputs Coupling of estuary and shelf models Documentation of the “what if” outputs

13. Is Ecosystem Modelling Possible? Plants and Animals People (social) Economics Geophysical environment Politics

14. ThankYou Thank You