1. The Rapid Evolution of Convection Approaching the New York City Metropolitan Region Brian A. Colle and Michael Charles Institute for Terrestrial and Planetary Sciences SUNY at Stony Brook

2. False Alarm Rate (FAR) in % – Unverified warnings/total warnings (Svr tstm/torn.) ALY, BOX, OKX, and PHI Warnings from 1986 – 2003

3. Motivational Questions What is the thunderstorm distribution over the coastal Northeast? How do severe thunderstorms evolve as they approach the coast? Does the evolution of severe convection change as the sea surface temperatures warm during the summer? How well can mesoscale models forecast these convective events?

4. Sea Surface Temperatures 15 June 200015 August 2000

5. Severe thunderstorm/tornado reports per 100 km 2 per 1 million people Storm reports from 1/1/1950 to 10/31/2002

6. Lightning Climatology using NLDN sensor data (2000-2002)

7. Analysis Approach

8. June Density – 2000-2002 - strikes per 100 km 2

9. August Density – 2000-2002 - strikes per 100 km 2

10. June Lightning Hours – 2000-2002

11. August Lightning Hours – 2000-2002

12. Case Study – 18 May 2000 Squall Line Event# of eventsMost severe Lightning5NA Hail91” Wind80126 mph Flash Flood2NA Funnel Cloud1NA Tornado2F2 Total Storm Reports 18 May 2000 through 19 May 2000 Total of 99 storm reports across southern New England The only warned county that didn’t verify was Nassau county, LI. The only damage report in Suffolk county LI was a downed tree.

13. 18 May 2000 1200 UTC Surface Analysis

14. Temperature (every 2° F) Analysis 18 May 2000 18 UTC

15. .5° reflectivity loop – 20 UTC 18 May 2000 to 02 UTC 19 May 2000

16. Above: 21:36 UTC reflectivity indicating cross section. Top Right: Reflectivity cross section showing vertical storm structure. Right: Velocity cross section.

17. Left: 23:33 UTC reflectivity indicating cross section. Above: Cross section showing vertical storm structure.

18. 18 May 2000 2100 UTC Soundings (9-hr Eta model forecast) KOKX (Brookhaven, NY)KPOU (Poughkeepsie, NY)

19. Eta CAPE – 9-hr forecast valid 21 UTC

20. MM5 Simulation 36, 12, and 4 km domains, centered over the Northeast U.S. Initial and boundary conditions from the GFS run at 0000 UTC 18 May 2000. Ran MM5 with the Grell convective parameterization (36/12 km), simple ice, and MRF PBL.

21. Model Verification – Surface Temperature 1800 UTC 18 May 2000 4km MM5 (hr-18) – MSLP and T (°C) Surface Analysis NYC

22. Model Verification – Precipitation 1800 UTC 18 May 2000 Reflectivity Mosaic 12km SBU MM5 – MSLP and 1-hr precip.

23. Model Verification – Precipitation 2200 UTC 18 May 2000 Reflectivity4km SBU MM5 – MSLP and 1-hr precip.

24. Summary and Future Work Convection weakens rapidly approaching the NYC metropolitan region during the spring and early summer, resulting in high false alarms rates for the NWS. The weakening occurs as convection encounters the cool marine boundary layer as evidenced by a lightning composite and case study. Need to better understand this coastal marine interaction before quantifying localized urban- scale effects. There are model difficulties in forecasting squall lines over the NE. MM5 rarely has them correct under weak to moderate CAPE.

25. The End

26. References NLDN Details: –http://ghrc.msfc.nasa.gov/uso/readme/gai.htmlhttp://ghrc.msfc.nasa.gov/uso/readme/gai.html Wasula, Alicia C., Bosart, Lance F., LaPenta, Kenneth D. 2002: The Influence of Terrain on the Severe Weather Distribution across Interior Eastern New York and Western New England. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 17, No. 6, pp. 1277–1289.

27. Probability of Detection (POD) in % – Warned events/total events (Svr tstm/torn.) ALY, BOX, OKX, and PHI Warnings from 1/1/1986 – 10/16/2003

28. MM5 CAPE

29. 18 May 2000 Lightning Distribution

30. Grid domain

31. Outline Climatology: –Severe thunderstorm/tornado reports. –Lightning climatology. Results: –Results of lightning climatology. Case study (18 May 2000): –Squall line evolution. –NWP model simulation of case study.

32. Small-scale Interannual Variability June 2000 DensityJune 2001 DensityJune 2002 Density

33. Small-scale Interannual Variability August 2000 DensityAugust 2001 DensityAugust 2002 Density

34. Velocity Cross Section

35. CG Lightning Strike Data National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) –Global Atmospherics CG lightning to represent convection over NE (similar to Wasula et al 2002) June vs. August convection (2000-2002) 5-7° C difference in sea-surface temp.