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School of Business Commercial Real Estate Conference March 6, 2012 The End of Extend and Pretend A Look at the Recent CRE Loan Experience of Connecticut’s Community Banks Martin J. Geitz, President & CEO
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Agenda Community Bank Profile Market Conditions Commercial Real Estate Loan Exposure Loan Quality Trends Conclusions
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Profile of Connecticut’s Community Banks
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Statistical Profile 46 community banks headquartered in Connecticut Often the largest bank in their home town Connecticut community bank deposit market share: approximately 22% 31 community banks’ data available for this analysis –Total Assets $23.0 billion –Total Loans $16.6 billion –Total Deposits $17.8 billion Community banks account for over 50% of small business loans in US
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CRE Experience CRE loans are significant balance sheet concentrations for many banks Concentrations have declined slowly since 2009 peak Loan quality indicators are still elevated Expect continued impact of workouts: loan write-downs, foreclosures, distressed sales
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CRE Market Trends
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Commercial Real Estate U.S. Price Trends
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U.S. Home Prices Trends
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U.S. New Home Sales
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U.S. Housing Starts
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CT Housing Permits
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Community Bank CRE Loan Concentrations
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Total CRE Loans / Total Loans Data from FDIC UBPR Reports PercentagePercentage
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Total CRE Loans / Total Loans Number of CT Community Banks in each tier Percentage of Total Loans Dec 2011 June 2011 Dec 2010 June 2010 Dec 2009 June 2009 Dec 2008 June 2008 Dec 2007 50% +765677777 40% - 50%124313332 30% - 40%654574444 20% -30%12 13141112111311 10% to 20%343255657 <10%000000000
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Total CRE Loans / Total Loans Median PercentagePercentage
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Non-Owner Occupied CRE / Total Loans PercentagePercentage
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Non-Owner Occupied CRE / Total Loans Median PercentagePercentage
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Owner Occupied Non-farm Non-residential CRE Loans / Average Loans PercentagePercentage
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Owner Occupied Non-farm Non-residential CRE Loans / Average Loans Median PercentagePercentage
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Median Comparison PercentagePercentage
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CRE Construction and Development Loans / Total Loans PercentagePercentage
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CRE Construction and Development Loans / Total Loans Median PercentagePercentage
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1 to 4 Family Construction Loans / Total Loans PercentagePercentage
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1 to 4 Family Construction Loans / Total Loans Median PercentagePercentage
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Total CRE Loans / Capital PercentagePercentage
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Number of CT Community Banks in each tier Percentage of Total Loans Dec 2011 June 2011 Dec 2010 June 2010 Dec 2009 June 2009 Dec 2008 June 2008 Dec 2007 500% +100232311 400% - 500% 454442323 300% - 400% 003458353 200% - 300% 12 1088811910 100% - 200% 109 11 9101310 <100%232102114
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Total CRE Loans / Capital Median PercentagePercentage
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Non-Owner Occupied CRE Loans / Capital PercentagePercentage
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Non-Owner Occupied CRE Loans / Capital Median PercentagePercentage
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Community Bank CRE Loan Quality
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Delinquency Trends Loan delinquencies typically forecast loan workouts and, ultimately, charge- offs Delinquencies plateauing for many CT community banks Delinquencies remain high for commercial real estate loans
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All Loans 90+ Days Past Due PercentagePercentage
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All Loans 90+ Days Past Due Median PercentagePercentage
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1 to 4 Family Construction Loans 90+ Days Past Due PercentagePercentage
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1 to 4 Family Construction Loans 90+ Days Past Due Median PercentagePercentage
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Real Estate Loans 90+ Days Past Due PercentagePercentage
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Real Estate Loans 90+ Days Past Due Median PercentagePercentage
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Construction & Land Development Loans 90+ Days Past Due PercentagePercentage
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Construction & Land Development Loans 90+ Days Past Due Median PercentagePercentage
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Final Thoughts
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FDIC Overall Loan Delinquency Trend
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FDIC CRE Loan Delinquency Trend
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Conclusions CT community bank CRE exposure has not declined significantly, though C&D loan exposure is down CRE delinquencies appear to be leveling off – but is it a trend? Weak economic growth offers little reason to expect quick improvement in community bank CRE loan conditions
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Thanks School of Business Commercial Real Estate Conference November 1, 2011
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